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An analysis of state-level economic growth suggests that a certain number of slumping state economies could signal the start of a national recession ow.ly/HiXG50Mexkf

From the @FT. Interesting (and unusual) to see the @OECD warn about liquidity risk. More broadly, I suspect #markets have priced in about 90% of the inflation/interest rate risk, 55% of the recession/credit/earnings risk, and are yet to figure out how best to price liquidity risk

New economic commentary "An Update on Wealth Mobility" confirms previous finding that large upward movements in wealth are associated with families' owning businesses and real estate other than a primary residence. Read more: clefed.org/3Vfovce

Median #PCE #inflation measures remain elevated but may be offering tentative signs of a moderation in underlying inflation. Median #PCE #inflation moved down from 0.4% in Oct to 0.3% in Nov, while the year-over-year rate declined from 5.7% to 5.6%. clefed.org/PCE

Our interest rate decisions impact households and the #economy at different speeds. Bringing inflation down won’t happen overnight, but we’re determined to get inflation back to target🎯, and we will. bit.ly/3G9qWIQ #AskTheBoC #cdnecon

Link to the #Fed's revised economic projections for 2023-24: Lower growth More unemployment Higher inflation Yet it "downshifted" rate hikes while also taking the peak rate up by 50bps to 5.1%. Confused? Don't be. It's the consequence of being late and having the wrong forecasts.

One-year-ahead inflation expectations in the preliminary Michigan survey of consumers fell to their lowest level in 15 months, from 4.9% to 4.6% in December Five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from November at 3% sca.isr.umich.edu

Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening ow.ly/v7xM50LXu76 #economy #cdnecon

Bank of Canada sounds more cautious about its willingness to higher interest rates – CIBC – by @MSalordFX fxstreet.page.link/XrW4 #BOC #Banks #USDCAD