Gabriel Ramirez

Hi guys! I am co-founder of kurier.tech, a logtech startup that will disrupt crossborder parcel delivery. We have recently been selected by @SkyDeck_Cal as part of their Batch 15. I will be twitting learnings and thoughts through the launching process! #Logtech

Virgen bendita de Guadalupe…

Y cuándo va a renunciar @MarkoCortes del PAN?

We promise this is not a person in a bodysuit. bit.ly/3w5XRvH

Ayer dije aquí que Sheinbaum ganó el debate (lo sostengo). El comentario me ganó críticas y descalificaciones. Lo comprendo, pero la frustración no construye. Es mejor entender. ¿Por qué perdió la oposición esta oportunidad? Lo explico aquí, para @Letras_Libres letraslibres.com/politica/polit…

@ponchodelosrios Awesome!!! Ilse is amazing! Congratulations!!

I am excited to announce that Ilse De Bruin has joined Nowports as our new Chief Product Officer! With a remarkable journey across leading roles at Flexport and Amazon, Ilse brings her deep understanding on product to make the #nowportsway 10x at a customer level experience! Logistics and supply chain products need new heights. All the way from focusing on AI and machine learning, to enabling customers to automate most of their workflows of their supply chains in LATAM, and I'm sure Ilse De Bruin is the right leader to lead the product vision!

@beltrandelrio Impacto de marcas de Ecommerce internacionales

En el período del presidente más nacionalista, quien ha dicho que quiere que el país sea autosuficiente, el consumo de bienes importados ha sido el más alto en los últimos cinco sexenios.

Coming full circle ⭕️ Best of luck with your next move, @CH14_ 🙏❤️ #MUFC || #HO14CHICHARITO

The world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, powered by 33 Raptor engines, lifting off from Starbase

Just inspected the Starship launch pad and it is in great condition! No refurbishment needed to the water-cooled steel plate for next launch. Congrats to @Spacex team & contractors for engineering & building such a robust system so rapidly!

@ponchodelosrios Depende el tipo de música

Yo no creo que la gente que trabaja mientras escucha música esta concentrada.

we are so back

Though there will never be a foolproof formula for finding product-market fit, here’s my best attempt at creating a guide for B2B startups that'll save you much time and pain. It's based on interviews and research into the PMF journeys of 25 top B2B startups. Here's a peek:

For the first time since 2003, the 🇺🇲 US is now importing more from Mexico than China.

@asanwal @flexport @chontang

Alright, some napkin math analysis that suggests @flexport's current valuation might actually be 80+% lower Yup - not the $8 billion valuation it last raised at in 2022 But more on the order of $1.41 to $1.58 billion Ouch … but why? It’s a combo of the company being priced for perfection and macro headwinds Let’s dig in Notes: * There are a few key data points I’m going to use here to show my work, thinking and assumptions which you’ll see below. * Generally, I’ve tried to use the assumptions / metrics that are most favorable to Flexport. * If you have better data or see an assumption that is not correct which would markedly change the analysis, please lmk. So let’s start THE DATA / ASSUMPTIONS (you can skip to analysis below if not interested in the data) ***** Container pricing (source: Freightos Baltic Index - graphic below) 2023 - $1455 2022 - $7369 2021 - $10,500 2020 - $1555 2019 - $1200 I’ve generally picked the price at the midpoint of each year with the exception of 2023 where I’ve used the current rate. Note that container pricing estimates vary by source, i.e. Platts and various equity research outfits have different numbers but directionally the trend is consistent, i.e. container pricing has plummeted 85%+ since the peak, and we’ve reverted back to pre-pandemic levels. Also, routes like China to North America East Coast are much more expensive (nearly double of the Index above at $3048 per container also per Freightos). As you’ll see, the underlying implication of this analysis doesn’t change as a result as long as the container price being used over time is consistent. ***** Flexport Total revenue 2022 - $5B 2021 - $3.3B 2020 - $1.3B 2019 - $670M 2018 - $441M 2017 - $224M ***** Flexport Net Revenue (source: @CBinsights - graphic below) 2022 - $1B 2021 - $660M 2020 - $260M 2019 - $134M 2018 - $88M 2017 - $45M Please note that various reports have net revenue being 15-20% of total revenue. Competitor Expeditors Int’l is at 13-14% but for this analysis, I'm using the 20% reported figure per earlier comment that the metric most favorable to Flexport will be used when making assumptions. ***** Flexport Valuation (source: CB Insights - graphic below) 2022 - $8B 2019 - $3.2B 2018 - $1B 2017 - $910M 2016 - $300M 2015 - $79M THE ANALYSIS The key driver of valuation here is the # of containers Flexport handles on behalf of customers. Flexport of course has other offerings like Flexport Capital, air, trucking, customs brokerage, cargo insurance, etc, but container shipping based on media reports is the majority of their business. Also, the 20% net revenue assumption detailed above aims to give them credit for these other business / revenue lines. If we take total revenue above and divide by revenue/container from above, we get a view on total containers moved by Flexport. Here’s where we land on # of containers shipped in 2021 and 2022. 2022 - 678k (total revenue / Baltic index pricing) 2021 - 314k That suggests remarkable growth of 115% in containers handled over those 2 years based on the revenue numbers Flexport has shared with media. With that, we have enough to start thinking about a valuation for Flexport today. Generally, container shipping volumes are down as Reuters reported in June 2023 “Global trade remained in the doldrums during the second quarter as China’s post-lockdown rebound proved slower than expected and was offset by continued weakness in North America and Europe. Volumes were down in three of the first four months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis” Let’s give Flexport the benefit of being an insurgent here and assume that even though volumes are down globally, they’re able to take market share and as a result, they maintain the 678k containers they shipped last year. We’ll then multiply that container volume by the current cost/container given above 678,518 containers x $1455 price/container That yields total revenue of $987M. That would be 80.2% less than the $5B that was reported in 2022. So what does this all mean for Flexport’s valuation. Its 2022 financing round valued the company at $8 billion with total revenue of $5B - a 1.6x multiple. Competitor Expeditor has a price/revenue multiple of 1.43x. Using these multiples, Flexport’s current indicative valuation would be $1.41 to $1.58 billion. An 80% haircut. What could change this? Most of the catalysts for a reversal of the revenue trend are a function of the macro environment - specifically container volumes going up and/or the price per container rebounding. But right now, pressure on container pricing is expected to continue given sluggish demand and increased container capacity coming online. ING expects 9%, 11% and 7% in capacity growth in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively. Of course, Flexport could grow into their $8B valuation by capturing a greater share of the global container market. Bloomberg estimates say there are 226 million containers shipped per year. Flexport at 678k containers today would represent 0.3% of the total container market. To get back to $5B of revenue (their 2022 figure) and assuming container rates stay depressed, this would require Flexport to grow container volume to 3.4M (5.1x growth over current levels). That’s a tough and gargantuan hill to climb. Given this challenging backdrop, the move to a more disciplined cost structure is obviously critical and a clear focus with the return of founder Ryan Petersen @typesfast to the CEO spot after the resignation/dismissal of former CEO @davehclark. One other interesting thing to highlight here is that @Shopify owns ~15-20% of Flexport. What will they mark Flexport down too? They recently sold their shipping and fulfillment businesses, Deliverr, to Flexport to as well. Thanks for reading. Data and other relevant info links below. Thx to these peeps for their great data and writing on the freight market and Flexport @JKempEnergy @smalter @alexrkonrad @freightos @JoshConstine cbinsights.com/research/shopi… app.cbinsights.com/profiles/c/pPe… app.terminal.freightos.com/fbx?ticker=%5B… forbes.com/sites/alexkonr… sacra.com/c/flexport/ us1.campaign-archive.com/?e=22bf458ddc&… techcrunch.com/2017/10/06/a-s… ing.com/Newsroom/News/… reuters.com/markets/commod… finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXPD/key… techcrunch.com/2016/06/07/fle…

#MéxicoMereceMás de lo que este gobierno le ha dado. Con el esfuerzo de todas y todos, pronto vamos a estar mucho mejor. #XóchitlVa

🇲🇽 Mexico has replaced 🇨🇳 China as the top trading partner of the 🇺🇲 United States, according to Axios report.

@colinva 🔥🔥🔥

Mañana corro un medio maratón después de años! Estoy muy emocionado 🙌🏻🏃🏻#21k

@typesfast @chontang this should be @SkyDeck_Cal

I have joined Founders Fund. If you are someone who’s out to get revenge after having been wronged by a previous employer or investor, a French technical founder who fled socialism to build your company in America, or a Christ-like figure of any kind, please get in touch.

@rafille14 Miami