Shuey Diskind

@The_Gildz Jordan Beck 5/2

The 3rd Annual Gildz “HR Scrub Derby” is back! Below is the HR Scrub pool for 2026. Rules to contest listed as well, make sure you read those prior to entering your submission. Contest is live starting today but you have until Monday, 4/13 first game to enter your submission. All entries submitted after first pitch Monday are locked out. You can select a player anytime up until contest lock but if player HR’s this weekend, you’re eliminated. Going to be tougher this yr as there are new eligibility requirements. To qualify as a scrub, the player must have hit 10+ HR’s last season but no more than 25+. Eliminating the obvious fades. Winner gets free entry into 2027 NFBC Draft Champions. At last… Your 2026 HR Scrubs: Trea Turner 🤮 Wyatt Langford 🤮 Jarren Duran 🤮 Austin Riley 🤮 Josh Naylor 🤮 Bo Bichette 🤮 Agustin Ramirez 🤮 Matt McLain 🤮 Yainer Diaz 🤮 Jeremy Pena 🤮 Byrson Stott 🤮 Daulton Varsho 🤮 Jacob Wilson 🤮 Ivan Herrera 🤮 Noelvi Marte 🤮 Caleb Durbin 🤮 Heliot Ramos 🤮 Isaac Paredes 🤮 Logan O'Hoppe 🤮 Jordan Beck 🤮 Colton Cowser 🤮 TJ Friedl 🤮 Austin Wells 🤮 Brett Baty 🤮 Marcell Ozuna 🤮 RULES! 1. Player must remain on big league roster for entirety of contest. (sent down/DFA’d he’s eliminated and so is your entry, even if he returns.) 2. Closest to date of HR without going over wins. ie May 21 entry, May 22 HR, May 23 entry. May 21 takes it. Tie goes to the first entry (time stamped) 3. 1 entry per person 4. 10 day-IL stints are allowed but if your player misses 20 consecutive games, player and your entry is eliminated. 5. Must reply to THIS thread. Frankly don’t want to put much effort into this and search for anything. 6. No Twitter/X accounts created in April 2026 will be allowed to enter. (Trying to minimize burner accts) 7. If no one selects correct player, contest will default to the last player correctly selected. 8. Good luck.

@The_Gildz I believe he's confirming he's joining the show

Konnor Griffin entering the 5th rd of Main events like…

@RunDMcD How do we know it's mild? Because he came back in 24? He missed 3 months in 23, seems relatively severe

@genosucks1 It all depends man ... Every case is different. Seems like it was a mild strain. It would be nice to know the severity of these strains but we often have to operate in the dark

Sale's injuries are flukes. There's no concerns with his arm/shoulder. He's 37 so you could argue age risk but that's not a big deal to me. Fried didn't have a strain either of the last 2 years. He had neuritis in July 2024 and he missed like a week. That's not close to a strain. So many people don't understand injury risk correctly. These are not high risk players whatsoever.

@RunDMcD As the good dr once said

@RunDMcD 2 years seems like an arbitrary cutoff. Fried had a forearm strain in 23 and forearm neuritis in 24

@RunDMcD Was probably a compilation of all the injury guys Ryan had a shoulder strain in 2024 Fried had a forearm strain Sale has extensive injury history

DR. DAVE DRAFTED JOE RYAN?;?!!? OMGOMGOMG!!! Yeah. It's his back. He's fine.

@BaseballValues @gingersnaphyde @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 "In a vacuum, using only one input, a 60X hitter is slightly more valuable than a 50M pitcher, mostly because pitchers have higher injury risk than hitters." I believe this is a direct quote

@genosucks1 @gingersnaphyde @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 We’re not saying that at all. We have Early at 31.7.

Fellas, if the model values Tai Peete over Jurrangelo Cijntje...it may be time to update the model.

@gingersnaphyde @BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 Early is just a random example to prove the point. 60 extreme does not equal a 60 player. You can take any other unproven 55 player that is objectively a better prospect as well. Caden Scarborough, Trey Gibson, and Elmer Rodriguez come to mind.

@genosucks1 @BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 The difference with Early at this point is he is much more proven in the upper levels in the minors and at the Majors obviously, so he is going to hold a lot more surplus value.

@BaseballValues @gingersnaphyde @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 Zero prospect outlets,scouts, or any other possible input you use would have Peete over Early. If your model then says Peete> Early because hitters>pitchers, it is very flawed.

@BaseballValues @gingersnaphyde @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 Injury risk is obviously included in their risk factors. Saying pitchers have more risk than hitters is lazy without looking at adj. grade.60 extreme means Tai peete has a very low chance of hitting a 60 outcome. Dsl players & injured players are all factored into the risk grade.

@gingersnaphyde @BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 It comes from a misunderstanding on how BA grades. Spencer Jones isn't really a 60, he's a 40 due to the risk. Connolly early is a 50, but his risk only drops him to a 45, making him a better prospect. Saying hitters> pitchers is incomplete

@genosucks1 @BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @AramLeighton8 Why?

@BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 That is wild, to say the least.

@genosucks1 @GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 In a vacuum, using only one input, a 60X hitter is slightly more valuable than a 50M pitcher, mostly because pitchers have higher injury risk than hitters.

@BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 I was referring to your comment about BA, so I used BA scouting grades. Obviously, some outlets will be lower, but some will be higher for the same price. So, taking just BA's input, the model would have Jones higher?

@genosucks1 @GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 No, because there are multiple inputs. Many outlets are lower on Jones, and Early's initial MLB-level success carries weight.

@BaseballValues @GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 Well, that seems flawed. So the model would have Spencer Jones at 60 and extreme risk over someone like Connolly Early who only has a 50 grade?

@GeoffPontesBA @gingersnaphyde @AramLeighton8 Correct

@RunDMcD At the risk of contradicting the doctor, it likely would be good to link the whole study, which concluded that there is no evidence of increased risk. cnsmaryland.org/2017/03/22/do-….

Evidence suggests that MLB pitchers who participate in the WBC tend to underperform and/or face increased injury risk in the following MLB season compared to those who do not, often due to premature, high-intensity exertion in March. Data shows these pitchers often experience decreased innings, fewer starts, and higher ERA. Key Findings on WBC Impact: Performance Decline: Studies indicate that pitchers in the WBC experienced a roughly 16.5% drop in WAR (2.96 to 2.47) and a higher ERA increase in the subsequent MLB season compared to non-participants. Workload Reduction: Participants averaged 2.5 fewer starts and 17 fewer innings in the following season. Injury Risk: The intense, early-season competition disrupts normal pitching progressions, which may contribute to higher injury rates. Structural Risks: It forces pitchers to peak months earlier than the typical MLB season timeline, which is often considered stressful on arms. While some pitchers navigate the transition successfully, the data indicates a general "hangover" effect for many who participate, leading to caution from many MLB teams. List of SPs pitching in the WBC this year: RHP Nolan McLean RHP Joe Ryan RHP Paul Skenes LHP Tarik Skubal RHP Logan Webb LHP Jose Quintana LHP Cristopher Sánchez RHP Sandy Alcantara RHP Shohei Ohtani LHP Yusei Kikuchi RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto Let me know if I missed anyone

@TJStats @RealJRAnderson @RotoWire He's 34

@RealJRAnderson @RotoWire Great work James! Quite surprised by the Carter Jensen omission. Do you have concerns with his bat translating and/or him sticking at catcher?

🚨The @RotoWire Top 400 Prospect Rankings are fully updated!🚨 - 42 Additions - 90 FYPD prospects Reply with any questions for the big mailbag next week! rotowire.com/baseball/prosp…

@zackwaxx Whole podcast feed is no longer on spotify. Is that on my end only or also yours?

Ultimate Auction winner @papelbeast, Main Event overall winner @TulsaHop & Brandon Gavett discuss how to build a team that can break once the season starts -how to "soft punt" saves -what you can/can't screw up -auction values and SGP are flawed open.spotify.com/episode/2MOAK0…

@zrbecker13 Looks like tom seaver?

Anyone have any idea whose signature this might be?

@underdoogmlb @Ry_Bass Danny Columbe was an opener 1 game

@Ry_Bass Twins had a lefty?

Interesting factoid: Today’s starter, Ian Seymour, will be the first lefty to start a game for the Rays all season! The Mariners are the only other club to start all right-handers this season.