Celund

$BTC [Update] BTC has seen a nice little correction after SFP’ing the previous highs, down to my POI, from where we’ve had a reasonable bounce. Speaking from more of an intraday perspective, price is now approaching the 1H supply zone here. A short can be attempted if we see distribution forming. If not, I’ll be looking for distribution from the supply overhead at 79K — if that appears, I’ll add some more size to my swing short. That said, there are a couple of other scenarios I’m watching. 👉A rotation back higher to take out the recent highs around 80K–81K, where I’ll again add more size to my swing short if distribution shows up. Or, if we get a failure above those highs and price closes back below the current highs. 👉If not, and if price gains acceptance there, continuation becomes more likely, in which case we’ll probably see price trading up into the 85K–86K region, from where we’ll once again look for exhaustion signs to catch the swing short.I might even attempt a long from 80K to 86K if I see signs of reaccumulation, then flip it into a short if distribution forms.

$BTC (Update) BTC has been in this HTF sideways range for about 60-plus days, creating internal bullish MS whilst externally we remain bearish until 98K has been reclaimed, preferably on the 3 day/weekly. The current bounce is probably going to bring in “we’re back” memes and 300K targets back on the cards, but please note this is nothing but the creation of a potential HTF LH for a LL — something we all saw from the previous leg. I personally believe this is the repetition of that price action. As for the current PA, we’ve now reclaimed the 74,200 which would have been an easy short scalp long into 77K-78K, which is where I think we’re headed.I’ll be looking for a swing short from that level and if that level is surpassed, the next technical resistance level would be 80K-84K (a massive supply level as well), where I’ll look to short again with huge size targeting at least 60K minimum. P.S.: Excited to bring back these little regular updates. Expect a lot more every day.

$BTC [Post Weekly Close Update] BTC saw a weekly close with a bearish engulfing candle, which on the surface might look pretty damaging, but if you zoom out, it actually closed right within our multi-week/month horizontal consolidation range. That means it doesn’t really carry any meaningful HTF implications, despite the bearish-looking candle. As I’ve said several times before, it’s only a weekly close below 88K that would trigger the next leg lower and potentially kick off the second, more aggressive phase of the bear market. Until then, we’re likely to keep seeing this compression and consolidation until one side finally breaks. Also worth noting, price remains bearish from a HTF MS perspective and will stay that way until we get a decisive close above 108K. So essentially, we’re in the process of forming a HF LH (in the making) ahead of a LL – which is most likely going to be that 70K-ish target. 👉On the 4D/5D timeframes, we’ve now formed a fresh supply zone around 92K–93K, which could serve as our target from the 86K long entry. Once we reach it, we can then look for another short opportunity, potentially down towards 70K again. 👉On LTF - keep a close eye on 88,152.6 – a loss of this level will likely lead to a shallow PB into 87,700–87,500, which is a key area to hold on the mid-timeframes. If it gives way, we’ll probably see a correction back to new lows. Have a great trading week, everyone!