George Coyle

The upcoming Market Wizards book is approaching completion. As such, @jackschwager and I have decided to release the names of the traders included in the book and their associated X handles. Here they are: Kristjan Kullamägi @Qullamaggie Lance Breitstein @TheOneLanceB Simon Russo @simonrusso__ Lukas Fröhlich @TheShortBear Phil Goedeker @Tradestl Kelvin Chiu @KC_SilverCape Jason Berry @Positive_Equity Kenny Sharkness of @smbcapital (Kenny has no public X account) Rick Bandazian Jr. @Off_The_Tape Looking forward to sharing the book with the world! If you'd like to pre-order the book, you can do so here: lnk.to/marketwizardsn… For discounted bulk orders (US only) go here: bulkbooks.com/products/marke…

Since this post, $XLE is up about 4% while $SPY is down -2.5%. I did not buy XLE (and didn't trade SPY either) but want to address it again because it raises an important point. Often times good setups (as I define them) come related to macro events. $XLE is a good example. Reasonable breakout but it came on the back of Iran. I did not take the trade because I know that a change in Iran could cause XLE to drop hard and fast. And with Trump we never know what will come. But, in hindsight, I should have taken the trade (as of today at least). Generalizing, I am historically reticent to take setups when there is a "hot" "macro" issue driving the setup mainly because I know the tide could turn quickly. However, often I find I would probably be better off if I ignored the underlying narrative focusing only on price. But it is very hard to ignore mainstream happenings unless you completely bury your head in the sand. I wonder what the masses think of this. Assuming you are a discretionary trader, do you ignore news and take the setup or do you avoid setups predicated on current events?

This week's secular investment trends video focuses on aluminum. Prices getting hit today but stocks up a bunch in the past 6 months or so. Long term fundamentals are positive as per executives. youtube.com/watch?v=X22AFp…

This week's LTTM video: youtube.com/watch?v=OzXiOk…

I wrote an article about this that might be of interest. Some excerpts: That a 16% CAGR produced a 265 million % total return speaks to the power of long-term compounding. I think these CAGRs provide a good framework in terms of determining the types of CAGRs you can probably hope to achieve over the very long term. In all likelihood, things with higher CAGRs did not survive probably due to the larger risks they were taking. the best companies as measured by cumulative returns are not very high tech. In fact, they focus on rather boring industries like tobacco, materials, railroads, etc. the best performer was a tobacco company that has been sued so many times and ways it makes your head spin. Anyone who thinks that cigarettes are good for you has been living under a rock for decades. Yet, despite all of that, it is the best performer out of 29k stocks over ~100 years. Why? Because they sell a product that people want to pay for. The fact that the product kills people doesn’t matter. triinv.substack.com/p/the-secret-t…

If grandpappy bought $1 worth of Altria stock 100 years ago and reinvested the dividends, it would be worth $4,421,136 today. (ignoring Uncle Sam's cut) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Red states are eliminating income taxes, blue states are raising them. It's going to be amazing to see what this country looks like in 20 years.

@YagoGarciiia_ I don't control that side of things but I will share your comments with the publisher. Thanks for the feedback.

@gfc4 It’s a shame only the first two Market Wizards books were translated into Spanish. George, you guys are doing amazing work — and sadly a lot of Spanish-speaking people are missing out. I’m definitely going to read it. Thanks 🙏🏼

Want to improve your trading process? Pre-order the upcoming Market Wizards book, of which I am the co-author, here: lnk.to/marketwizardsn…

@ThePath2Profit Thank you!

@gfc4 Preordered last year and can’t wait!

@HowCanIKelp Thank you!

Ordering my copy now!! Cheers @gfc4 to the advancement of ideas.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of “work” given various upheavals including the threat of AI making humans obsolete. As such I decided to write up the following list what I will call “guiding principles for work” that come from my experience which includes many failures and a few successes. I wrote this partially for myself and partially for anyone else who might also be wondering how to navigate the road ahead. You will probably never have job security, act accordingly and be pleasantly surprised if you do find said security. The world changes all of the time, make your mantra “adapt or die”. You will likely have to reinvent yourself many times- act accordingly here too. If you go for big things, you are probably going to experience consistent and extreme setbacks. These get easier over time in a way but the sting never really goes away when high expectations meet disappointing reality. Figure out how to become as resilient as you can but also guard your mental “capital” by which I mean don’t beat yourself into a pulp if you need an occasional “breather”. Most people who achieve big success experience very challenging times on the path that often last for years. You might be one of the lucky ones who doesn’t suffer much, but it is probably best to start out with a line from the movie Fight Club as a guiding light, “You are not a beautiful and unique snowflake.” Memorize this line from famed investor Jim Rogers, “...we all know smart people who are not successful; we all know talented people who are not successful. Persistence is what makes the difference.” I talk to a lot of people who achieve success and I increasingly believe that passion is critical to persistence. If you don’t love (or at least like) what you’re doing, the hard times are going to be too hard. Another point on successful people, a lot of times, when you meet them and get them to speak candidly, you find that they didn’t really have it all figured out ahead of time. They tried things some of which worked and some of which didn’t. Often the things that they tried were not “fully baked” as they say. Usually forces beyond successful people’s control came to their aid allowing outlier success. While every rule has an exception, I find younger people who achieved success attribute most of their success to their own efforts while older people who achieved success are a lot more willing to acknowledge that forces beyond their control propelled them - I think this relates mostly to a reduction in the need to defend one’s ego as we age. Next, keep in mind this line from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, “There is a great deal in starting right, whatever the enterprise may be...” This may sound like somewhat of a contradiction to the persistence line above, and it kind of is, but it is a lot easier to persist if you find a way to keep the lights on early on. You will likely encounter potentially highly lucrative opportunities that conflict with your morals or ethics (assuming you have these) on your path. Only you can decide when to bend or break said morals and ethics. But I like to keep Warren Buffett’s line in mind here, “It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it.” Ultimately, no one can see the future so no one can tell you how long you should persist in the name of whatever it is you’re trying to achieve. Some people decide they will die trying and find alternate sources of income to subsidize their potentially lifelong unfulfilled pursuits. Others give their ventures a finite amount of time and pull the rip cord if things aren’t working by then. There is no one “right” answer since we each get to choose our path. But I think it is helpful to do a little preliminary research before you start on your path so that you can establish reasonable expectations in conjunction with the snowflake line above. In the end, I think knowing when to say when comes not from analysis but from your gut. Things change, priorities change, life changes - if “it” doesn’t feel right anymore, pivot or otherwise adapt. If your only goal is to make a lot of money or you don’t really care what you do or you want the highest odds of job security, consider starting a boring or “ugly” service business with a mind to open multiple locations over time. Most people I know who own multi location boring businesses seem pretty comfortable and aren’t too worried about AI. These tend to be trades oriented businesses. But, in fairness, AI + robots might be coming for them too. You can read this same post in my free Market Meditations Substack if you'd like. Link in bio.

Sometimes I imagine what is must have been like to have lived in an era with career-long job security and no real risk of technology making you obsolete around every corner.

The audio version of Stock Market Wizards (the only MW book which has not had an audio version till now) has just been posted for sale. Would like to know how listeners like the new narrator (the previous narrator has left the business). Would you like to have the new narrator also narrate the upcoming Market Wizards The New Generation book? audible.com/pd/B0GSSBBWPZ?…

@JasonP138 Only 16 people so far but I find it surprising too.

@gfc4 Wow a lot of yes’s…

Do you believe that you control your outcomes in trading (and life)?

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator quote of the day: I admit that I do get irresistible impulses at times to do certain things in the market. It doesn't matter whether I am long or short of stocks. I must get out. I am uncomfortable until I do. I myself think that what happens is that I see a lot of warning-signals. Perhaps not a single one may be sufficiently clear or powerful to afford me a positive, definite reason for doing what I suddenly feel like doing. Probably that is all there is to what they call "ticker-sense" that old traders say James R. Keene had so strongly developed and other operators before him.

I still sometimes pay the high or sell the low in a move. Sometimes my stop is exactly where the market turns. That happens to everybody. The goal is not perfecion, its survival. Keep losses small. Stay in the game. Long career.

@MarketReferee Add to resume, "Facebook Marketplace Arbitrageur"

Little laundry machine flipping. Bought for $600 Sold for $2400

Went through a few hundred charts today and the only things that look good (through my lens) are $XOP and $XLE. But one Trump post about Iran could cause them to drop a lot and fast. Lot of the charts looked good a week or three ago but then got hit pretty hard. This is an increasing pattern of late; something will go up and look like a good stable trend and then, out of nowhere (or maybe because of a Trump post), the stock/sector/commodity/etc gets smashed. Guys fading breakouts are likely doing AOK but I'm not sure how viable that approach is long term. My survey yesterday got about 200 responses. 57% say this is not a good trading environment while 26% say it is "mid" leaving relatively few saying it is a good environment. All of this brings to mind Livermore's comments about it being impossible to always make money in markets. Were he alive today, my guess is he would probably be in full cash heading to Palm Beach for some fishing awaiting a better market for trading. As it relates to discretionary trading, a question I like to ask myself is: Is this a good environment for your style? If the answer is anything but an emphatic "yes" I think it pays to be very cautious. If I am losing money (which I am right now) I like to take a breather. FWIW.

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @kingtutcap I didn't think they were even possible anymore

@kingtutcap do they happen when everyone and their mother is buying the dip?

Market crashes don't happen when everyone and their mother is waiting for the crash to happen

Based on your style, rank the current trading environment: