Numéraire Funds

@DarioCpx Spot on

“I trust the US Treasury will be ready to short tons of oil futures as soon as Globex trading resumes on Sunday.” 🎯 😉

@PointsNorth_Cap NorCal or SoCal?

$6.65 for Unleaded and over $10 for JetA. The art of the deal ! Un F…ing believable. Sure feels like we are winning…..

@ShaziGoalie Any pics?

Gas stations in Mississauga are already packed at 5PM. The oil shock has arrived. War in Iran ➡️ oil spike ➡️ Canadians rushing to fill their tanks. This is how global conflict hits your wallet in real time. ⛽️

@KimDotcom @grok is this AI generated

Israel hit hard by Iran

The crash everyone's talking about will be worse than 2008. And mainstream economists still can't see it coming. I predicted the 2008 financial crisis by watching one chart that neoclassical economists refuse to acknowledge even exists. The correlation between private debt and unemployment hits -0.93. That's not a typo. When I showed Ben Bernanke's own writing claiming private credit has no macroeconomic effects, I knew we were in trouble. Turn to page 24 of his essays on the Great Depression. He literally dismisses the mechanism that caused the crisis. American household debt has surpassed 18 trillion dollars. Private debt peaked at 170% of GDP before 2008. And the mainstream still thinks it's government debt we should worry about. Banks don't just intermediate. They create money. And when neoclassical economists mistake the level of debt for the change in debt, you know we're being guided by people who don't understand the system they're supposed to manage. Watch the full breakdown - youtube.com/watch?v=8VwhvS… #Economics #FinancialCrisis #PrivateDebt #DebtDeflation #EconomicTheory

Enjoy your 50-year mortgage

@BickerinBrattle George with the resignation of admiral Alvin Halsey, the message is clear, you bow to Trump or you retire. America is no longer that liberal democratic shining city on the hill. You either agree with the king or get bombed to oblivion. Simple observation.

the only reason Trump has been able to "disrupt" and achieve any unusually significant (for good or for bad) change is because the Supreme Court has so far blocked the lower federal courts rulings that would have shut him down. and now it is the Supreme Court turn with ruling.

@BickerinBrattle @rayc9000 I believe the holy of holies for a lot of generals is their pensions. We are passed the Constitution and honor stage.

@rayc9000 @globalvaluefund how about what Milley did? how about those command NCOs?

Everyone in that room had this speech in front of them as Hegseth then Trump spoke. And all would die for the US Constitution. US military abhors facism even "facism-lite'.

@BickerinBrattle George I want you to be right but Trump will gut DoW and get his yay sayers. Generals need their pension and private jets on the tarmac and golf courses

Hegseth to be fired soon.

@BickerinBrattle US et al need a plan for major implosion of USA George. We have national guard in every city now, stretched on military involvement everywhere. We are prone to civil unrest at home.

US et al hopefully have a plan for the implosion failure of Russia as a state, the refugees, the humanitarian demands, the several wars resulting. it will be worse than the chaos of 91 to 93. Will likely splinter into several countries.

@BickerinBrattle And corporate tax cuts are an extension of 2017 so it’s not that important I guess?

@globalvaluefund not at all given the tax cuts are for high net worth folks they end as savings. and in anycase they arent large.

between slight monetary tightening and tariffs hit (it is a corporate tax), the US econ has had tightening now to 1 3/4% drop in the "impulses". this will show up in a drop in NGDP.

@BickerinBrattle In your thesis, you are expecting a big sell off? So the bull market by large deficits you were explaining last year or so is cancelled now?

all those babbling about stocks and recessions they have experienced 0 endogenous recessions so they do not have the slightest clue what they are talking about. a recession will destroy BTC and SP500 and.... all recession since Reagan 82 have be exogenous. and 82 was grim

@BickerinBrattle Love your stuff George. Thank you. Hopefully root canals aren’t too bad

tariffs are a VAT end of story. brush off and review the tons of academic literature on VAT imposition - start at BIS and then move to ECB then.... BOC has some good stuff

Despite all the tariff talk, markets seem to be set up for a sizable rally

@BickerinBrattle 100%

required reading, still

@sidprabhu Sign of the times

@Gloeschi Terrible stewards of capital, but when precious metal mania picks up they’ll rally regardless

$SILV actually worse - from 23m to 148m

Geez, $CDE number of shares outstanding went from 100m to 400m last decade

@OAlexanderDK There ain’t any lol Israel killed them a long time ago

Nuclear scientists in Iran right now.

Thanks to @BickerinBrattle for bringing this one into my attention. It is a fascinating read tomsargent.com/research/Three…