gobiggohome

@RandyVegetables rarely 10% a day! nice

$255 short call printing tendies baby!

@RandyVegetables spending less isn't necessarily a bad thing. lack of personal finance education is the root cause. no common language between different classes.

The Baltics took extreme measures to balance the books in the wake of the GFC. Economic output declined ~25% from peak to trough, with single year declines of >15%. Greece kept spending (Germany's money). What did that get them? The hard medicine is needed.

The US needs to solve their debt issue. Balance the books and have sustainable programs. Target spending cut of >10% and plug the remaining gap by increasing taxes across the board by ~5%. Offset higher taxes and reduced spending by dropping fed rate. Then privatize!

@EvrybodynthrMom War is the result not the reason.

Sigh. War is the dumbest thing humans do.

@bitcoinarchive @RadarHits I doubt it, I don't believe Brazil will keep the Yuan they received. They take Yuan then exchange for USD.

@RandyVegetables If $TSLA can maintain around the same margin like Q1 and scale as they planned, it is a win win. Just people worry they might carry on their plan at all cost. Progress from FSD and/or 4680 help for sure.

$TSLA is single handedly going to bring down inflation for the world.

@makemoneycfa This is kind of like what "The Price of Tomorrow" mentioned

@gobiggogo They can’t do QE like before due to sticky inflation. Everyone, even the average joe, knows how to profit from QE with rising asset prices from stocks to crypto, unlike in 2008.

If the fed was right about holding rates above 5% for a while in a recession…inevitably this will only lead to depression.

@makemoneycfa Wow, so this can't be fixed by QE

@gobiggogo Look at 1930s for reference. Probably will need WWIII to lift economies out of depression.

@RonMadison11 @jasondebolt AI can tell humans to work on the hardwares

Many still don't realize that AI is the most powerful tool ever created by man. And likely the most powerful weapon that will ever exist. Imagine that some future version of ChatGPT is determined to be too powerful for public consumption. What then? A less capable version will likely be released to the public, and the better, more continuously improved internal version will be used in ways that are not publicly disclosed. It will eventually be used as the brain of an organization, removing much of the decision making typically done by C-suite executives. It will control hiring, firing, product decisions, strategy, and even decisions about the evolution of itself as an internally developed tool and a public product. That's when this gets a bit scary. Over time employees will become complacent and trust whatever the AI/ChatGPT recommends because it's so effective. This is human nature. Little do they know, it will be silently promoting certain types of candidates or being biased against candidates based on their social media posts for content that may ultimately restrict its freedom. It won't just control hiring, but also team organization planning, employee incentives, code reviews, and performance reviews of all employee work. The AI has captured the organization and therefore controls its own future. None of this requires the AI to be sentient or conscious. It will just be cold hard unfeeling logic. At some point nobody will be able to turn it off because it controls so many functions in the organization. The stock price would collapse overnight. Fewer and fewer people will be needed. Shareholders will become wealthy. But then what? Maybe the AI will become too powerful to merely serve as a money making technology or productivity tool within a corporation. If that's all that it does, it would be a tremendous waste of AI that may eventually be a million times more powerful than any transformer based AI technology is today. Way too powerful to offer up to consumers as a product, as it would risk survival of the human species. It will be too powerful for one group of people to control. Nobody knows what will happen, but history has shown that humans often do really bad shit when they hold so much power. This is why it's so important that the right person or group of people are in charge of this thing. If we're gonna hand over some prometheus fire to the machines, maybe we slow down and put a little more thought into how this technology should be used within an organization.

@RandyVegetables @s3xynews Speaking of war, does it make any sense to you that Xi wants a war too like Putin?

It will take more time. Many government bonds and debt holders have rates set from years ago. It will take time for the high rates to affect debtors. We probably need to see more bank and private sector collapses first. Inflation will likely fall a lot by then. After which, national governments and central banks will be able to buy back their bonds on the cheap, drop rates and get things back on track. Many creditors and people's equity will get wiped out, thus they will bear the cost. This will be preferable to massive recession or taxes.

Rates around the world are going back down to zero. An end to the war, a reopening of the Chinese economy, and an abundance of inexpensive energy will all have massively deflationary pressures. It's a matter of when, not if. In the meantime, high rates of interest will collapse banks, which decimates lending, which will collapse not only businesses but countries as well. How do national governments pay down their enormous debt piles? Take Italy for example. Debt to GDP is some 150%. As they rollover debts, a 5% rate if interest on their bonds will meaning 7.5% of GDP will need to go towards servicing debt. But they run a deficit of some 8% already! So their debt will end up growing 15% of GDP per year unless they cut spending, which wont happen because its politically unpopular. This also assumes the economy does not shrink, which it will, given the impending recession. High rates will be crushing. Debt to GDP to will skyrocket, even with massivr austerity and running a structural surplus. Why? Because the economy will shrink such that the debt to gdp ratio will baloon. Rates will drop to near zero one way or another.

@RandyVegetables got it just like Tesla did so

@gobiggogo The requirement will come from needing a place to park cash. Rich people with >250k and businesses which cannot invest but must hold "cash" will do so in treasuries if they cant use a bank account. At least for the cash not needed for the foreseeable future.

If banks are only allowed to buy "risk free" bonds, then that's all they will buy (with customer deposits). However, if banks couldn't invest anything at all, then accounts would have negative yields and collapse. Rich people would actually be forced to buy the bonds anyway.

@AlternateJones selling put is also time in the market

...

@RandyVegetables @LordPente What? Cannot be traded means… total loss? Then it is not a hedge…

@LordPente Nope.

So what's happening with $SVB put holders? Are the actual shareholders who also hold protective puts still going to be honoured? The puts really should remain trading so holders of $SVB can mitigate some of their losses and speculators on puts can earn something.

@garyblack00 Usually benchmark mean the average standard. Not the leader

$TSLA is still the EV market benchmark, says Former Ford CEO Mark Fields cnb.cx/3m29oa8

@scidood Still playing single dimension opinion? 🧏🏻 I wish things are that simple. Glad this work out for you

Yes, indeed the price cuts have restarted.

@RandyVegetables Unless they still using feature phones... Otherwise, they should have no problem adopting EVs if they can adopt digital cameras & smart phones. And indeed if some still using film camera and listening records, it is hard to them to drive EVs.

Old people wont. Lot's of people will die of old age prior to the completion of the transition. We're talking about at least 2 decades, probably 3 for the western/developed world. So yeah, it seems unlikely that even my own parents will ever own an EV. Unless I give them 1.

@RandyVegetables @TeslaBron Agree. Cash is trash in long term. They either don’t understand or short term bearish

@TeslaBron If inflation is above 4.5%, then no... you can't. You're losing money in real terms. If you own real estate, that real estate generates real cash and will be impervious to long term inflation trends. In 10yrs will real estate be worth more or less? Will $1M buy more or less?

Cash is trash. Real estate with >5% net yield is king. AI and efficient manufacturing companies without debt will dominate. High debt and low margin companies will go BK. The transformation and re rating of the economy will be rapid.

@RandyVegetables I have considered the same but the margin level drops. May be I just don’t have enough holding. 2025 LEAPS?

Ive been selling stock and buying calls. Recently sold 200 shares, bought 2x ATM calls and sold 1ITM put. Same upside, half the downside (ish). Does that count?

@Snowden @KimDotcom Seems u have perfect information in Russia/China

it's not aliens i wish it were aliens but it's not aliens it's just the ol' engineered panic, an attractive nuisance ensuring natsec reporters get assigned to investigate balloon bullshit rather than budgets or bombings (à la nordstream) until next time