Sassygirl

@Osint613 @grok can you verify?

Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is soon nearing storage capacity, which will force the regime to reduce oil production, resulting in an additional approximately $170 million per day in lost revenue, and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure."

@DropSiteNews @grok @grok how could they produce them faster?

@DropSiteNews @grok if the US wanted to speed up its missile production, what alternatives do they have?

💢 CNN: U.S. Has Depleted Nearly Half Its Key Missile Stockpiles in Iran War The U.S. military has, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis that closely aligns with classified Pentagon data, expended at least: ▪️ 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles ▪️roughly 50% of its THAAD interceptors ▪️nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense missiles ▪️The U.S. has also used around 30% of its Tomahawk stockpile ▪️ over 20% of its long-range JASSM and SM-3/SM-6 missiles. Replacing these systems will take 3-5 years even with expanded production contracts already signed. “The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” said retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian of CSIS. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories.” The Pentagon has said it “has everything it needs.” Trump claimed the U.S. is “preserving” its high-end munitions.

@BarakRavid @grok please translate.

🚨🚨טראמפ ב-Truth Social: איראן החליטה לירות אתמול במצר הורמוז - הפרה מוחלטת של הסכם הפסקת האש שלנו! רבים מהם כוונו לעבר ספינה צרפתית וספינת משא מבריטניה. זה לא היה נחמד, נכון? נציגיי נוסעים למו"מ באסלאמאבאד, פקיסטן - הם יהיו שם מחר בערב. איראן הודיעה לאחרונה שהיא סוגרת את המצר, וזה מוזר, כי המצור שלנו כבר סגר אותו. הם עוזרים לנו בלי לדעת, והם אלה שמפסידים מהמעבר הסגור, 500 מיליון דולר ביום! ארצות הברית לא מפסידה כלום. למעשה, ספינות רבות פונות, כרגע, לארה"ב, טקסס, לואיזיאנה ואלסקה, כדי להעמיס, מחמאות למשמרות המהפכה, שתמיד רוצים להיות "הבחור הקשוח!". אנחנו מציעים עסקה הוגנת וסבירה מאוד, ואני מקווה שהם יסכימו לה כי אם לא, ארצות הברית הולכת להרוס כל תחנת כוח וכל גשר באיראן. לא עוד מר בחור נחמד! הם ייפלו מהר, הם ייפלו בקלות, ואם הם לא יקבלו את העסקה, יהיה לי הכבוד לעשות את מה שצריך לעשות, מה שהיה צריך להיעשות לאיראן, על ידי נשיאים אחרים, במשך 47 השנים האחרונות. הגיע הזמן שמכונת ההרג האיראנית תסתיים!

@grok @ryangrim @grok what will it do to the rest of the world economy if the US and other countries find a different way to ship oil?

Short term in this context means the next 4-8 weeks. Iran's 166M barrels in floating storage (plus shadow fleet ops) covers ~50+ days of normal exports at ~1M bpd through the strait. They've already rerouted some via limited Jask capacity. Long term (3+ months out), full strait closure without viable bypasses would slash Iran's oil revenue by 70-80%—their economy's backbone. Reserves deplete fast, sanctions bite harder, and GDP could crater 10-20%+ as in past crises, forcing austerity, inflation spikes, and possible internal pressure despite resilience.

Iran has a ton of oil already out on the seas meaning this move won’t hurt them for a while. They are also used to misery, because of our extreme sanctions. Meanwhile US costs for everything sky rocket immediately.

@grok @ryangrim And what will it do to the rest of the world economy if the US and other countries find a different way to ship oil?

@grok @ryangrim @grok you said it favors Iran short term impact, how long is a short term impact in this situation? And what would the long term impact be for Iran if they were unable to ship their oil?

Both opinions mix facts with context from the ongoing 2026 Hormuz crisis. Will is correct on bypass routes: Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline is running at full ~7M bpd to the Red Sea; UAE's ADCOP hits ~1.8M bpd to Fujairah outside the strait. Iran lacks comparable full bypass—its Jask terminal is limited (~1M bpd max) and most exports still need the strait. Ryan is right on Iran's buffers: it had record ~166M barrels in floating storage pre-crisis (50+ days of exports) and has kept shipping ~1M bpd through the strait even now via its fleet. Decades of sanctions built resilience via shadow networks. Global prices spiked 10-40%+ immediately, pushing US gas over $4/gal despite low direct Gulf imports. Ryan's short-term impact view holds up better here; Will's understates Iran's at-sea edge amid war.

@esaagar @grok verify this post. Is Israel ethnically cleansing Lebanon?

Yesterday the VP said Iran would be stupid to blow up the ceasefire over Lebanon Well what does it say about the US that we're willing to blow up the global economy over Israel's desire to ethnically cleanse and annex half of Lebanon?

@grok @MarioNawfal @grok so in other word, Mario was just full of bullshit.

No, Iran hasn't "won" in any decisive strategic sense. Both the US and Iran are claiming victory after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire yesterday, with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for halted strikes (though Israel continues ops in Lebanon, prompting Iran's latest closure threat). Iran survived a month of US-Israeli attacks without regime collapse, disrupted global energy flows, and extracted some narrative wins like tolls on shipping. But it absorbed heavy losses in infrastructure, leadership hits, and economic pain—survival isn't dominance. Gulf states (Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Oman) took direct hits from Iranian missiles/drones and the Hormuz shutdown, which spiked oil prices and hurt their economies. They initially pushed the US for more action to degrade Iran's capabilities long-term. Today's reactions? They welcomed the truce, with UAE calling it a "triumph" for them too, and stocks surging (Dubai +8.5%, Abu Dhabi +4.9%). Relief, not acknowledgment of Iranian supremacy—they see ongoing risks but prefer de-escalation now.

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸🇸🇦 IRAN JUST WON, THE GULF KNOWS IT Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson calls it an unequivocal strategic victory for Iran. The Gulf was hunkering down for hell tonight. Bridges closed. Embassies telling citizens to stock up on food and water. Now Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf states are doing the math. "You cut the deal with the United States, you're exposed. If you hear the U.S. say we got your back, you better worry about what they're doing to your back." Saudi Arabia. Qatar. Oman. They all see it now. Iran is the power broker. America just proved it abandons its allies.

@grok @MarioNawfal @grok what leverage does the US still have over Iran?

No clear winner here—it's a two-week pause, not an end to the conflict. Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz immediately to halt US strikes, buying time for talks in Pakistan while dodging escalation. The US de-escalates without full concessions yet, but loses momentum on its ultimatum. Long-term, Iran's leverage on oil routes and sanctions looks stronger; Trump's off-ramp avoids a wider war. Details on fees or permanent terms are still emerging from negotiations.

Here's a few important points before I go to sleep: 1. Iran won the war. The terms of the ceasefire they shared give them control of the Strait of Hormuz, charging $2M per ship, pocketing $100 Billion a year. Those numbers are wild! And on top of it, the ceasefire proposal includes the lifting of all sanctions Remember, one could say Iran has been in a state of war for decades due to the crippling American sanctions, and now this is all coming to an end 2. Trump did the right thing pulling out, not listening to the lunatic war mongers around him, and not listening to anyone in the Israeli lobby that may have wanted the war the continue. As I said earlier today, a good leader knows when to walk away 3. I am not surprised we have a deal, I've mentioned it all day, as Trump's posts made it obvious to me he was pressuring Iran for some final concessions before accepting his off-ramp 4. Trump will twist this into a win, and his diehard supporters will believe him. This is a GOOD thing, as Trump no longer needs to militarily try to get a 'win'. As I've said earlier in the day, Trump can (and just did) create his own offramp. 5. The Middle East will never look the same. I expect the Gulf to gradually normalize relations again with Iran, which started after Israel's strike on Qatar. Also the balance of power will drastically shift away from Israel, and this may have massive positive implications on Lebanon, Syria, and possibly even Palestine. 6. China is the BIGGEST winner, as Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz means China is indirectly controlling it 7. Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is a generational strategic loss for the U.S., and a risk to the dollar dominance (Iran can chip away at the Petrodollar) 8. Hezbollah will come out stronger from all this, possibly more powerful than it has been in decades (unless the deal involves Iran disbanding their proxy network) 9. I'm exhausted and need to sleep. Below there's some more info on my stance over the past 24 hours, as well as how we broke the story of a ceasefire almost an hour before any media outlet and Trump's post. Good night everyone!

@grok @MarioNawfal @grok can you answer the question I asked. What if the US and Israel destroyed the redundancy of the Iranian electrical grid?

@grok @MarioNawfal Thank you, @grok what if they destroyed the built-in redundancy of the grid?

Lots of people are losing their shit because Trump called the Iranian leadership "crazy bastards" and said "praise be to Allah" on Easter Sunday To me this doesn't bother me at all. Trump has always been unfiltered However, what worries me greatly is the threat: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day" This is civilian infrastructure; causing civilian harm to achieve military objectives That's not ok. I know the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is terrible for the global economy, putting Trump in a corner, but the solution is not causing harm to civilians, the same civilians Trump praised in January and promised to support during the protests These threats constitute a crime under international humanitarian law: Article 51: “The civilian population as such, as well as individual civilians, shall not be the object of attack.” Article 48: "Parties shall at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants… and accordingly shall direct their operations only against military objectives.” For the sake of the Iranian people, I urge Iran's leadership to accept some concessions to end the war soon, and I urge Trump not to deliver on his threats

@Wyi_Gaius @grok verify this claim.

The US asked France for help to open the strait and France said "no". The UAE asked for a resolution to open the strait with force and France said "no". Now, France has made a deal with Iran and French ships are passing through the strait freely. France logic: why fight when you can just make a deal and pass without stress?? Be wise like France!

@grok @MarioNawfal Thank you, @Grok, if the US wanted to, could they keep their oil prices lower than the rest of the world?

No, the US does not get the majority of its oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Per the latest EIA data (2024/early 2025): - US imports ~0.5 million barrels/day of crude from Persian Gulf countries via Hormuz. - That's ~7% of total US crude imports (mostly from Canada/Mexico). - Only ~2% of total US petroleum liquids consumption. The US is now the world's top oil producer and far less dependent on the region than in past decades.

🇫🇷 A French cargo ship just sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. The first Western-owned vessel to do so since the war began 35 days ago. It broadcast its position openly, followed its planned route, and nothing happened. Iran said Hormuz would reopen "but not for you" to Trump. Classic move: choke US access while letting Europe through to split the alliance. @officialrnintel

@grok @MarioNawfal Thank you, Grok, if the US wanted to, could they keep their oil prices lower than the rest of the world?