John

@TonyNashNerd Tony x.com/rampcapitalllc…

...adding AMD to this....

@stoic_point Knoxville Civic Coliseum for Disney on Ice today.

$EVLV kicking off Q4 w/ another new MLS ⚽️team "Evolv not only enhances safety but also speeds up entry, reducing congestion at the gates..long waits in Houston’s summer heat have been a poor experience for fans, and [this] should help solve that issue." hampsonproperties.com/blog/houston-d…

@zoewangai @jeremykauffman This paper was a while back(?), and statistics is now offered as a course in med school I think. Don’t know still a major issue still.

The paper behind it: Title: Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results The researchers asked 60 people (20 medical students, 20 residents, and 20 attending doctors) a question. The question was: "If a test for a rare disease (1 in 1000 people have it) has a 5% chance of being wrong (false positive), what is the chance that someone with a positive test actually has the disease?" They also asked what doctors would do if a test result didn't match what they saw in the patient, especially if it happened many times. Only 11 out of 60 people (less than 2 out of 10) answered the first question correctly. The correct answer is less than 2%. Many people thought the chance was much higher, around 95%. The average guess was 55.9%, which is 30 times too high. When asked about repeated abnormal results in healthy people, only a few understood that some healthy people naturally have results outside the "normal" range. Most doctors said they would repeat the test to check for lab errors, and some would order more tests to "protect myself." One resident even suggested a biopsy for a healthy person with repeated abnormal results. ......

4 out of 5 Harvard doctors fail an introductory statistics question Expertise is real, but most "experts" are shockingly innumerate

@aldo_mma @Wrongsnowboard8 @sweenprs @Kaesaar_13 @InsaneCope Did Iraq invasion not teach you anything? Iran nuclear site strike? And tons of others actions? Just need to have a “reason”. And rest of world does what? Condemn and thoughts and prayers? 🤣

@Wrongsnowboard8 @sweenprs @Kaesaar_13 @InsaneCope Retard thats not how real life works. You think the US would be risking an international scandal and crisis?

@TheStalwart Yes that’s true. You’re also trying to make it sounds like the Fed has always been independent up to this point… is that really an objective truth?

They also don't have politicians incentivized to boost the stock market in order to win re-election.

@conorsen @plike_ Didn’t Biden win campaigning as a moderate? He left unpopular partly having noticeable decline half way in and the powers that be tried to gaslight as if he was fine.

@plike_ Exactly

This is the view I’ve come around to. The Hillary/Biden/Kamala “tack left to try to appease the left by taking more unpopular stances and not actually winning the trust of the left” hasn’t been a great electoral strategy nor resolved the growing Dem internal tensions.

@TonyNashNerd @OakMaulersMom Tony - it seems like you and Albert have opposing views to cut or not to cut. You both have discussed this. Each side nods in agreement with the counter views. Is it focusing on different metrics, same metrics but different views…? 🙏🏻

@OakMaulersMom No. Definitely not Albert.

👇I'm pretty sure it was after this interview that I was called a "MAGA tool" or something, simply because I pointed out that Powell is political. ✅Ends up I was right. Again.

@dirtdog While this is fast & efficient numbers wise, I do miss having a 🛝 for my toddler. We go to a specific CFA and MCD close by our place as they’re the only ones with playgrounds. Seems like an underserved niche with young families. And yes, make the playgrounds bigger-better.

Chick-fil-A Elevated Drive Thru 1.91 acres 40 parking stalls 5,000 SF building 65 car d/t stack * No dining area * Pickup and d/t windows only * Exterior bathrooms * Food travels via conveyor belt from upstairs The most ‘Merica 🇺🇸 fast food you have ever seen Let’s go! 👊🏽💪🏽

@KevinLMak Note re: timing. Re: sizing I read it as 17% of a portfolio which could be personal or within a fund. In any case, seems like a sizable weighting and curious if it reflects the bullishness or the fund-portfolio is concentrated etc.

@goingconcern420 Sizing is 17% of NAV, I don't understand the question. Time horizon's are always tricky, lets say a year for lack of a better answer. Could be there in 4 weeks if the right long-only funds "wake up" to the story and decide to buy.

$SPHR Looking at the 13F's is interesting. While this only covers to March 31st (before the tariff announcements), the stock was -20% YTD (vs -5% SPX) as of March 31st indicating a fair bit of excess selling within the quarter. At an institutional level, the filings suggest no significant holders sold their positions. Meanwhile there were significant net institutional additions of +2.6M shares. Short interest grew about 1.5M shares within the quarter. To me, these numbers all constitute "noise", i.e. nothing dramatic happening that would cause significant price action in either direction. Maybe 2Q will tell a different story. So the reality is the stock is still just very illiquid, jittery and driven by vibes (recession, vegas, live entertainment, Dolan, etc). I wouldn't have forecasted the drop to sub $25, likewise I wouldn't have predicted the 50% bounce back to $38+. Wild price action. Fundamentally the company continues to be on track to execute the plan they've laid out from Day 1. What's interesting is the lack of volatility that has happened at a fundamental level, versus the immense volatility in the stock. Fundamentally, this stock is still worth $65+ to me. Currently held at a 17% weight in my portfolio.

@cullenroche Seems like no getting out of housing affordability w/o building more (easier than done) even w/rate cuts. I think many are hoping for a deflation (not good), and is there a way that happens without a job recession?

CPI in 60 seconds: 1) The rise in commodities is making inflation sticky. That creates some modest upside risk. 2) But this story remains *mostly* about shelter. And commodities need to rise MUCH more than this to offset the continued shelter disinflation, which I expect to revert to its 40 year average. 3) This isn’t a second wave. If it is, it’s a sad little wave. SAD. 4) No rate cuts this year unless the labor market really starts to fall apart.

@Tim_X94 Noted. Dilution, like debt, is a necessary tool. Execution will always be there as the future is unknown. Confidence in management & aligned incentives. Technology proven was a big factor for me. Looking forward to their progress and hopefully we will be handsomely rewarded 😀

Compared to last year a lot of really large risks have been retired. The main risk what I see now is that shareholders could be diluted mabye once more, satellites might blow up on launch and that would delay the full operations and production is not kicked up sufficiently. But I am very comfortable with these, since the company is doing exactly the right things.

$ASTS Each time on X somebody says AST Spacemobile has multiple competitors this gives me a little chuckle, since for its main use case which is beaming 5G broadband from space to unmodified phones the competition is very limited. Why? It is all about who can provide a seamless user experience to unmodified phones. In fact AST Spacemobile has only one real competitor named Starlink. Although their D2D tech stack and current offerring are behind I have no doubt that over time with Starship and bigger Starlink's they can create a 80-90% of AST's capability. That said due to FOCUS for me it is really clear AST Spacemobile will remain technology leader in the D2D space. The main gripe with Starlink's offering is described really well in the Kook report. It operates side by side an network operator, it is not integrated like AST Spacemobile. Hence the handoff between telco network and satellite network will likely be very hard to be seamless. In addition it also to my knowledge is not backwards compatible with older phones. MNO's know this and that why 45+ have signed MOU's with AST Spacemobile. It is very simple, the more seamless the user experience the higher the market size of your offering. That's why I am bearish on so many sms, voice and emergency constellation providers. Once Starlink and AST Spacemobile hit the ground running in 2026 it will be very difficult to compete for legacy players once they reach a certain scale. So many people don't understand this, but that is exactly how this game works. Abel knows it, Elon knows it and the others are probably going to find out in the next couple of years, when these companies will significantly undercut their pricing without breaking a sweat. That's because they hold a duopoly in the largest market of them all, which is beaming 5G broadband from space. If your constellation on the latitude that covers US, Europe and Japan already earns like 4-5B on revenue from broadband services to unmodified handsets then any incremental revenue you get from IOT and similar markets has like 99% margin. You could theoretically sell them for 80% less then what Iridium and Globalstar are doing and still make a handsome profit, because the money is already earned with the broadband services to unmodified phones. Many people just don't understand the economics of how a satellite business works. The best analogy is what Starlink broadband terminal business is doing to Iridium, Inmarsat, Globalstar etc. That will happen again when the direct 2 device efforts are fully up and running.

@thetreyfisher @dollarsanddata I gotta hope there’s a line between hustle bros vs. Fire bros here 😂 but to each one’s own 👍🏻

nothing to do with money and everything to do with staying engaged. Also, one size does not fit all. Some people might crush retirement. If you run a large business and have a triple type A personality, it’s not easy and a slippery slope. I love working and enjoying my family and will work till the end. ymmv. enjoy the ride…bud.

Hot take: People who choose to never retire end up leading more fulfilling lives than those who choose to retire early.

@mortgagetruth Canada, Oz, Europe, etc. they all have more expensive housing than us and lower GDP w/o 30 year fixed rate. And look at Cali. What makes us optimistic we can get out of all this?

@goingconcern420 We continue to build but also incentivize those with multiple properties to unload some.

If we’re honest and we know we can’t build ourselves out of the current housing shortage, what can we do to incentivize the sale of existing homes to young families and FTHBs?

@thetreyfisher @dollarsanddata And this doesn’t conflict with @dollarsanddata original point, which seems to be more focused on FIRE folks. Your father was 70. That’s not “early”. What’s the point of keeping work full time if money isn’t an issue? Time, grandchildren, other passions, health…?

@thetreyfisher @dollarsanddata My MIL all her life is work focused and that’s her main identity = worker bee that doesn’t know anything else. Don’t know his specific cases (health, financial…) , but generally we can’t work forever, and there are other fulfillments in life.

@thetreyfisher @dollarsanddata Did he not plan for another identity aside from his work identity? My mother in law is just starting and constantly talks about work. My lesson from that is prepare and transition to retirement and find fulfillment in other ways.

My father’s biggest mistake was retiring. He enjoyed working hard up until early 70s and turned into a shell of his former self by the time he was 75. Biggest reason…..not in his office working, talking w people, bidding on jobs, and checking out his construction sites. The retirement fade is real.

@TonyNashNerd @tangojoshua @Mankosmash @BaldingsWorld All good points and questions raised Tony. And lots of people lost their jobs-livelihoods over it too. The worst form of cancelling imo.

The language of the Covid era made it clear that people who didn't get the jab were violent and had the selfish intentions to kill others. This is recent history but it's so easy for many to forget. I exercised my civil liberties to forego the vaccine. But the overwhelming tone was such that I should have been labeled a criminal for doing so.

Ends justify the means: I lived in Singapore long enough to see that a lot of westerners love the convenience and order brought about by autocratic regimes and the suspension of civil rights. Is Singapore beautiful? Yes. Does the government work there? Absolutely. Is Singapore a democracy? Sort of. Western business people love the suspension of civil rights because they believe it will never negatively affect them personally. Has Bukele done incredible things for law and order in El Salvador? Yes, without a doubt. But he suspended several civil rights to get this done: ➡️Freedom of assembly ➡️Legal protections against warrantless arrests ➡️The right to legal counsel He also dismantled the judiciary, arrested tens of thousands without due process and jailed many without a trial. Look, I'm far from being a lefty and I'm very conservative on law and order issues (I live in Texas). But we can't, as Americans, praise the outcomes without acknowledging the process. Would we allow that here in the US? Is it good for "them" but not for us? If not, then how can we say it's good for the people "over there"? Again, do the ends justify the means? Would you endorse those tactics in your own city, state and country? It's easy to say "yes, if my country was as violent as El Salvador, I'd to it." But would you really? Maybe. If you would, please move there for 5-10 years. Don't just do a case study and look at crime statistics. Don't just do a weekend visit or stay for a month. Make a commitment. Live locally.