3X Lcug Ledndu
246 posts
My current view on the U.S. stock market: Geopolitics could get worse before it gets better—but I remain optimistic. Why downside risk still exists: Trump appears highly motivated to exit the war, but key uncertainties remain: the Strait is still closed, and enriched uranium destruction is unconfirmed. That leaves room for escalation scenarios—targeting power infrastructure, boots on the ground near Kharg Island, or even use of tactical nukes (e.g. B61 to bomb the underground facility) to force negotiations. As Bessent said: “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes” “Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.” Why I’m still optimistic: First let's check how the war impacts the markets: Oil ↑ → headline PCE ↑ → core PCE ↑ → fewer cuts / potential hikes → yields ↑ → PE multiples ↓ -> stock price ↓ So the two reasons I'm thinking it's still much better than 2022: 1. Nasdaq has already consolidated ~6 months while EPS surged → forward P/E reset near last year’s “Liberation Day” levels 2. Pre-Ukraine war PCE was ~7%; today ~2.8% → far less pressure for aggressive hikes vs 2022 So even a severe scenario likely < 2022 drawdown. And my estimates of the bear cases: Extremely bear case: QQQ ~ -10%(2022 level) Bear case: SPX ~6150, NDX ~22200 (Feb ’25 ATH zone) What's my strategy? Stay 20–25% invested (no leverage no margin). Holding $TQQQ / $MU / $SNDK. Double position at SPX 6150, and double again on either extreme downside(2022 case) or trend reversal (20EMA > 50EMA) after things settle down. Why still prefer storage names? Low PE multiple, trading ~5x ’26 EPS / ~3x ’27 EPS (per @FundaAI ).
*SEC PREPARES PROPOSAL TO ELIMINATE QUARTERLY REPORTING: WSJ
