ben goldmann

Let me walk you through the events of the war so far: 1. The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement. 2. The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared. 3. Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution. 4. The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2. 5. In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept. 6. In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.) 7. Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it. 8. Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.

I strongly reject your unfounded, and defamatory statements against the IDF. What you wrote reflects ignorance and a deep lack of understanding. In every war, there are operational accidents, including cases where a military force is harmed by its own fire. Unfortunately, in every war, uninvolved civilians are harmed, especially when terrorists use civilian populations as human shields. However, there is no Western military that fights terrorism more precisely, or on the basis of better intelligence, than the IDF, with a constant effort to minimize civilian casualties. The ratio between terrorist and civilian casualties is better than that of any other Western military. In fact, better than any fighting force in the world. The IDF is a professional and ethical army. For 78 consecutive years, it has faced relentless attempts to eliminate the State of Israel by totalitarian states and some of the most extreme and dangerous terrorist organizations in the world. There is no serious Western democratic military that does not seek to learn from the IDF and its experience. In fact, civilians in European countries also benefit directly from the outcomes of IDF operations. I suggest that instead of preaching morality to others, you personally condemn the disgraceful antisemitic display we saw in the Polish parliament last week. One should be cautious about making irresponsible statements that can ultimately lead to dangerous consequences.