Joel Gratz

@sutherlandjamie @OpenSnow @sutherlandjamie please email more information to hello@opensnow.com. Knowing the locations where the forecast was inaccurate will be helpful. We read and respond to every message. Thanks!

Is it me or is @opensnow useless now. The snow predictions are way off.

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow We are working on a probability approach. The hardest part is showing probability by default - it it's buried, most people won't go looking for it.

@gratzo @OpenSnow FWIW, I'm a big fan of AccuWeather's new snow forecast tool (this is from last week for Denver) and the probability-based approach! I find that helpful for longer-range views and conveying scenarios rather than a set figure that's prone to misinterpretation.

You know the drill...ignore those automated apps! Models are all over the place about next Sunday/Monday. #COwx

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow ...is that we do not just use the "6z GFS":-) We blend a LOT of model data. That doesn't mean that the forecast is perfect, but if a lot of models agree that 'something' will happen, it's worth paying attention to.

@BianchiWeather @OpenSnow ...note that the purple color shows a chance of mixed precipitation (snow/rain) and since it will have been warm leading up to the storm, a lot of snow might melt. One more thing...

@WFG_DEN Ha! Thanks for checking. I overslept (dreaming of snow) and then wrote as fast as I could.

Is Joel ok? - Colorado

@ozskier @OpenSnow Seems odd. Will have to adjust the weather machine.

Hey @OpenSnow, I think the app is broken. It says we’re not going to see snow anytime soon.

@Katonts Last few storms were definitely light, or more snow farther west. Just non-ideal wind direction / storm track. First half of February brought bigger totals, so not all bad news:-)

@gratzo What’s the deal with the consistent over-estimating of this year’s storms? I live in Frisco and we’ve consistently gotten a dusting to an inch or two when the forecasts are higher than that. Is it a jet stream issue where Summit County is out of the flow this winter?

@MarkR_ATX @findOpenSnow A ballpark estimate is storms move 30mph, CA -> CO = ~900 miles, so roughly 1-2 days travel time. But, that's assuming the storm moves in a straight line west-to-east. Most storms don't. Chances for snow in CO increase after 10th, but no specifics yet. Thanks for your support!

(2/2) For major fires like this #easttroublesomefire there are dedicated @NWS meteorologists that work with fire officials to give them the best weather information. My forecasts are just to provide perspective for those of us following on Twitter.

(1/2) Wind on the east side of #easttroublesomefire near @RockyNPS will be strong through Saturday-day, then slowing Saturday-evening, and reversing with snow by Sunday morning. Best wishes to all involved as Saturday is going to be (and already is) a tough day.

Weather update for #EastTroublesomeFire near Estes Park: Winds blow from the east Thu aftrn through Thu night (this is good). Then winds switch back to blow from west, strongly, from Fri aftrn to Sat aftrn (this is bad). Fri night - Sat aftrn is concerning. Then snow Sat night!

@skifanski OMG, that picture. This fire. Ugh. Can I post the pic in the Colorado Daily Snow on Thu?

@gratzo Pic from Winter Park around 7pm tonight....Appreciate your weather updates, love open snow, stay safe!

Weather forecast... Thu winds still gusty. Thu evening winds slow, change direction, temps cool, moisture increases through Fri. Then Sat winds will be strong with low moisture. Sat night & Sun = cold & snow likely. 🤞#EastTroublesomeFire

@nplareau Thanks Neil, this is super helpful!

@gratzo The GOES fire products (FRP, etc) use both 4 um and 11 um , where the 11 um provides more of a background value and the 4 um gives you fire info.

Thats quite the parabolic fire shape, visible with the 1.7 um infrared. Behaving like a fast running grass fire... but at a totally different spatial scale. Scary. #EastTroublesomeFire

Weather update for #CalWoodFire and #LefthandCanyonFire: Thu ~6am winds shift to blow from east, Thu ~4pm winds get stronger from the east. Maybe light snow on Thu night. Solid chance for snow Sat night into Sunday.

Wind update: Tue AM: Gusty from W. Tue PM: Slow speeds, from E. Wed: Increasing speeds, from W. Thu: Slowing speeds, from E. Snow update: Thu night: light snow possible, colder. Sun: Possibly significant snow, very cold. This is mostly good news. #CalWoodFire #lefthandcanyonfire

@ScottRi74507856 @Weather_West @nplareau Thank you!!

@gratzo @Weather_West @nplareau Joel, check out this article. Shows a decent correlation between 10-m open windspeed and rate of spread. They find it's about 10% of the open wind. link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Even as a scientist studying extreme weather & wildfire in a warming climate, I was shocked by how fast #CalwoodFire roared down the Colorado Front Range foothills this afternoon. This is footage of one of several large fire vortices I observed while leaving area. #COwx @nplareau

@JosephGruber Sorry, didn't see that note. Will take it down.