Bernice Gregory
71 posts


"No clean break happens. Price gets pinned, rejected, and forced to retrace." That's the narrative around the JPM collar call strike. Here's what actually happens. The call strike gets blown through 68% of the time. 17 out of 25 quarters, SPX traded above the call strike. When it breached, it went an average of 212 points above and stayed there for an average of 30 trading days. This is one of the most confidently stated and empirically wrong narratives on FinTwit. The worst misses: Q2 2020: call at 2775 → SPX hit 3234. +459 points above. 55 days above. Q4 2021: call at 4450 → SPX hit 4790. +340 points above. 54 days above. Q3 2020: call at 3230 → SPX hit 3588. +358 points above. 48 days above. The "pinning" effect people obsess over? It happened 3 times in 25 quarters. 12%. That's not a pattern — that's coincidence. "But the gamma flows create resistance." We tested daily returns when SPX was within 2% of the call strike vs when it was far away. No deceleration. Permutation p = 0.64. Nothing. Then we ran the real test. We simulated 10,000 random levels placed at the same % out of the money as the collar. A random number gets breached 71% of the time. The collar gets breached 68%. The difference is zero (p = 0.84). The collar is ~$22B in notional. The S&P 500 is a $45 trillion market. FinTwit is claiming that 0.05% of the market creates a "hard ceiling" for the other 99.95%. The current Q2 call strike is 6865. If SPX approaches that level this quarter (and it will), the base rate says 68% chance it breaks through. Don't let someone else's narrative keep you out of the trade. $SPX $SPY $JPM










Tamaka was sentenced to life in a Mississippi prison in 2008 for possessing less than two ounces of marijuana and is now 52, still behind bars after nearly 20 years 😳


Another day, another criminal pardoned by Trump. This time it’s Philip Esformes, the MN day care fraudster who operated a nursing home scheme to defraud Medicare of $1.2B, getting doctors to bill for unnecessary services re-arrested for domestic violence. share.google/gzvijRIlbrkEon…


SHORT SQUEEZE 🔥🚨 $MO 61 Call 12/12 avg .10🚨


WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. wsj.com/world/russia/r…







