Bernice Gregory

71 posts

Bernice Gregory

Bernice Gregory

@gregorybernice3

Katılım Mayıs 2017
357 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
Vulture trades 🦅
Vulture trades 🦅@vulturetrades·
Starting a fresh $100 —> 10,000 challenge tomorrow. Last time it took me about 7 days, will try to do it faster this time. If you want to follow along, comment below to join Going to lock comments in 24 hours
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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
SPX is now above 7100. The JPM collar call strike is 6865. How many times this week did you see someone call the collar a 'wall' or 'ceiling'? Leave it in the comment section. We would love to know what comments you saw. $SPX $SPY $JPM
Alphatica@alphaticaio

"No clean break happens. Price gets pinned, rejected, and forced to retrace." That's the narrative around the JPM collar call strike. Here's what actually happens. The call strike gets blown through 68% of the time. 17 out of 25 quarters, SPX traded above the call strike. When it breached, it went an average of 212 points above and stayed there for an average of 30 trading days. This is one of the most confidently stated and empirically wrong narratives on FinTwit. The worst misses: Q2 2020: call at 2775 → SPX hit 3234. +459 points above. 55 days above. Q4 2021: call at 4450 → SPX hit 4790. +340 points above. 54 days above. Q3 2020: call at 3230 → SPX hit 3588. +358 points above. 48 days above. The "pinning" effect people obsess over? It happened 3 times in 25 quarters. 12%. That's not a pattern — that's coincidence. "But the gamma flows create resistance." We tested daily returns when SPX was within 2% of the call strike vs when it was far away. No deceleration. Permutation p = 0.64. Nothing. Then we ran the real test. We simulated 10,000 random levels placed at the same % out of the money as the collar. A random number gets breached 71% of the time. The collar gets breached 68%. The difference is zero (p = 0.84). The collar is ~$22B in notional. The S&P 500 is a $45 trillion market. FinTwit is claiming that 0.05% of the market creates a "hard ceiling" for the other 99.95%. The current Q2 call strike is 6865. If SPX approaches that level this quarter (and it will), the base rate says 68% chance it breaks through. Don't let someone else's narrative keep you out of the trade. $SPX $SPY $JPM

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Alphatica
Alphatica@alphaticaio·
SPY UPDATE | Friday April 17 | 2:00 PM | OpEx Day $710.22. Up 1.22%. Thirteen straight green days. New 30-day high. The longest winning streak of 2026. Our Composite Score: +27.7 [Lean Bullish] Before we get into the numbers — a word for our readers. This has been an extraordinary run. We tracked the mechanics from $656 to $710 — every magnet, every dealer short, every put that bled into the tape. The structure called every level. But tonight the engine changes. Read this update carefully. It's the most important one we've published. What's happening right now: Dealers are short 215.5M shares. Read that number again. A week ago it was 44M. It quadrupled. This is the largest forced-buying position in our data's history and it cuts both ways. When dealers are short 215M and price rises, they buy. When dealers are short 215M and price falls, they sell. The same mechanic that drove 13 straight green days accelerates in reverse on a red one. $710 magnet at +$577M is pinning price. Net GEX at +$2.0B — a record that will never be repeated because it expires in two hours. Today's flow: +89.7M shares long, +$1.13B into calls (67% call-heavy), $3.27B total premium traded. OpEx volume is massive. 87% of call volume is new positioning — people are building into next week, not closing. IV skew hit +2.77%. Widest of the entire cycle. On the highest day. At the most bullish composite. Puts have never been more expensive relative to calls. Someone is paying up for protection at the top. Pay attention to that. What changes at 4 PM: 4.25M contracts expire. 21.6% of total OI disappears. $1.1B of GEX rolls off. The gamma blanket that suppressed every dip for two weeks gets pulled off tonight. Monday opens with a structurally different market. Here's what that means specifically: The magnets thin out. The dense $700-$710 zone that pinned price all week loses most of its near-term gamma. The remaining magnets are May and June dated — still present but weaker. Dealer short delta partially resets. The 215M won't stay at 215M once the 0DTE and weekly contracts expire. It drops. How much depends on what rolls and what expires. But the forced-buying engine shrinks. Vanna flipped. We flagged this this morning. Dealer effective vanna is now -55K. That means if IV drops, dealers SELL. For the last two weeks, vol compression helped the rally. Next week, vol compression is neutral to negative for price. The tailwind became a headwind. Charm pressure is the highest of the cycle at +428K. Time decay is forcing dealer selling, not buying. This was masked by the overwhelming put unwind. With that fuel gone, charm becomes more visible. The risks for next week: 1. The ceasefire expires Tuesday April 21. This is the event. If no deal, vol reprices. If vol reprices from 16% toward 25%, vanna reversal means dealers sell aggressively. The same reflexive loop that drove the rally fires in reverse. 2. The gamma cushion is gone. GEX flip is at $673 — 5.3% below. That sounds far. But without the dense near-term gamma, price moves faster. A 2-3% gap down on a headline puts us in a different structural regime overnight. 3. The dealer short at 215M is a loaded spring. It amplified every up day. It will amplify the first real down day just as hard. The 13-day streak didn't have a single session to release pressure. When it comes, the snap could be sharp even if brief. 4. IV skew at +2.77% is telling you the smart money is already hedged for this. The people driving the rally bought protection at the top. Follow their lead, not their direction. What we're NOT saying: We're not calling a top. The composite is bullish. The magnets above $710 still exist. If the ceasefire extends, this runs to $720-$725. The structure supports higher. But the character of the market changes tonight. The mechanical tailwind that made this rally feel inevitable expires at 4 PM. What's left is a lighter gamma profile, a ceasefire clock at 4 days, and the largest dealer short delta in history that works in both directions. The bottom line: Enjoy the 13-day streak. It was mechanical, it was trackable, and it was real. But the fuel source expires tonight. Next week is a different market. Stay hedged. Stay small into Tuesday. Let the ceasefire resolve before building conviction in either direction. $710 is the pin into close. $720 is the target if the ceasefire extends. $673 is the floor if it doesn't. April 21 decides everything. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
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Bernice Gregory
Bernice Gregory@gregorybernice3·
@alphaticaio That was supposed to say the most amazing content ever but smacking works too! 😄It has helped me immensely!!!!! Thank you!
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Bernice Gregory
Bernice Gregory@gregorybernice3·
@DaikokuXX__ I sure will because I was a teacher too! So I can definitely relate! Congratulations on your win! Enjoy your time with your kids!😃
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Bernice Gregory
Bernice Gregory@gregorybernice3·
@DaikokuXX Good Morning! I’m running late for work this morning too! Have a good day!
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Daikoku, The Collector
Daikoku, The Collector@DaikokuXX·
Good morning running late for work, Holding this put position still $spy Won’t be on here much today… meetings all day. I’ll step into the bathroom if I see something crazy.. Looking at buying shares of $rcat below 16 as well
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Bernice Gregory
Bernice Gregory@gregorybernice3·
@Prophitcy @JohnLoc18 What happened to him? He had 672 calls that expire May 20th correct? Looks like those calls are good because Spy just hit 671.60 unless I missed something???
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Prophitcy
Prophitcy@Prophitcy·
It’s Crazy How Many People Are Happy About What Happened To @JohnLoc18 He Made More Money Than A Lot Of These People Will Ever See In Their Life This Just Goes To Show That No One Really Wants To See You Do Good The Masses Want You To Be Miserable Just Like They Are
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JLoc
JLoc@JohnLoc18·
Again, no I don’t have any secret Discord or from any group. Being a loner is more fun. $SPY if I was right 100% I would charge you $10,000 monthly and you still love paying for it.
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R A W S A L E R T S
R A W S A L E R T S@rawsalerts·
🚨#BREAKING: Elon Musk says his security team is actively reviewing Brian Krassenstein’s account after multiple concerning threats were spotted, along with other serious issues that could constitute violations of platform rules or the law.
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Vulture trades 🦅
Vulture trades 🦅@vulturetrades·
I’ve only seen this setup twice in 6 years. The first time? $500 → $500,000 overnight. The second? $300 → $300,000 in less than a day. The third time is now. Like + reply “$KTOS” and I’ll send it.
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SniperAlert
SniperAlert@StockOptions888·
IM OFFICIALLY STARTING THE $100 TO $100,000 CHRISTMAS ACCOUNT CHALLENGE TOMORROW FOR DECEMBER ☢️🎄 I TURNED $100 INTO $280,000 IN 10 DAYS LAST MONTH; MILLIONAIRES WERE MADE SIMPLY BY FOLLOWING ME LIKE THIS POST AND COMMENT “$100” ❤️
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Bernice Gregory retweetledi
Desiree
Desiree@DesireeAmerica4·
Stillwater teen Jesse Butler walks free after multiple rape charges, zero jail time. Jesse Butler will serve no jail time. Not a day. Not a weekend. Nothing. Just counseling, curfews, community service, and supervision until he turns 19. This week’s final sentencing paperwork dropped, and that’s why the entire internet snapped at once. Because the newly surfaced details show exactly what he did: – Multiple rapes – Strangulation – Two victims – Recorded evidence – Prior protective-order violation And after all that, he walked out of court adjusting his cuffs like he was late to brunch. Prosecutors originally sought 78 years. Then the judge reclassified him as a “youthful offender” a judge with documented ties to his family. The question remains: why did power protect violence in this situation?
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60 Minutes
60 Minutes@60Minutes·
President Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao came shortly after Zhao’s company, Binance, helped catapult the Trump family’s cryptocurrency firm, World Liberty Financial, into international recognition. The firm is a major source of the Trump family's fortune. 60 Minutes reports, Sunday. 60Minutes.com
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