Gennady Rudkevich

Ukrainian vs. Russian leadership

Here is a list of Western national elections held in 2024 (after the global inflation crisis). Note what happened to incumbent popular support. UK: Tories (-46%) Belgium: Open Vld (-36%) Croatia: HDZ (-8%) France: LREM (-36%) Lithuania: TS–LKD (-30%) US: Harris (Democrats) (-7%)

@laschasmails GD's share of the vote in rural areas went up by more than that. There are precincts there GD got 90-95% of the vote this time around. After getting 50-60% in 2020.

@grudkev turnout is 10% up vs 2020 elections

FRAUD IN GEORGIA Although the overall statistical impression of the elections in Georgia was positive (x.com/romanik_/statu…) , the Devil, as usual, was in the details. The respected Levan Kvirkvelia pointed out a discrepancy between urban and rural voting patterns. His observation was confirmed, indicating manipulations favouring the ruling party in specific districts, i.e. all except districts DEC 1-10 (Tbilisi), 20 (Rustavi), 59 (Kutaisi), 64, 67, 68, 69, 70 (Poti), and 79 (Batumi). There is a method or hypothesis known as the Sobyanin-Sukhovolski's (S-S). For instance, you can find it mentioned here: electoralpolitics.org/en/articles/mo… According to this method, if we plot voting results on the following axes: X-axis = turnout (number of voters / registered voter list) Y-axis = candidate/party result (number of votes for the party / registered voter list) we observe these patterns: In fair voting, the slope of the point cluster aligns with the candidate’s percentage (if a candidate has 30% support in the population, then out of every 100 voters, 30 support the candidate, or y = 0.3 * x). In cases of ballot stuffing, the slope of the cluster is 45° (out of every 100 stuffed ballots, all 100 are for the beneficiary of the fraud or y = x). For the victim, the slope is 0° (out of every 100 stuffed ballots, 0 is stuffed for the victim). In the case of 'misrecording', when votes are not only stuffed in favour of the beneficiary of the fraud but are also added by taking them away from other parties, the slope becomes steeper, or y > x. For the victim, the slope is negative (they don't get any votes with the growth of the turnout, they lose them). This pattern can be observed in the data from Georgia when dividing it into two groups: Group 1: DEC 1-10 (Tbilisi), 20 (Rustavi), 59 (Kutaisi), 64, 67, 68, 69, 70 (Poti), 79 (Batumi). Group 2: all other districts. It is clear that the S-S hypothesis holds in Group 1 but not in Group 2. This discrepancy suggests a basis for suspecting fraud in Group 2, while no such grounds were observed in Group 1.

Basically, a democracy is collapsing if gov't institutions (the bureaucracy, courts, police, electoral commissions) are actively working to get the ruling party elected. These actions are generally sufficiently deniable that it's hard to definitively prove fraud is taking place.

For example, gov't workers are pressured to attend rallies and to vote for the ruling party. Local elites are bribed to turn out voters in their regions. It's particularly effective in poorer areas. The courts make an example of a few opposition politicians and journalists. Etc.

In most cases, democratic backsliding doesn't mean going from free and fair elections to brazen ballot stuffing and large-scale arrests of opposition figures. Instead, the ruling party increasingly uses government resources and institutions to give itself unfair advantages.

Cancelling the votes in one precinct isn't much of a solution when GD outperformed its average 2020 Marneuli results by at least 10% in 62 out of the 64 Marneuli precincts that reported their results so far. x.com/OCMediaorg/sta…

Incidentally, this also happened in Marneuli: x.com/OCMediaorg/sta…

There are multiple election precincts in Georgia where the ruling GD obtained more than 90% of the vote (in some cases, significantly more than 90%). A quick search suggests there were far fewer such lopsided results in 2020. For example: results.cec.gov.ge/#/en-us/electi…

@GeneVorobyov They do, but it's strange to see such huge swings in areas more prone to shenanigans while GD's national share of the vote is barely changed.

A true Russian solution. Birth rate too low? Make it illegal to talk about not having kids.

Not sure how many times people need to be warned, but if you're a citizen of a Western country, do not under any circumstances travel to Russia. bbc.com/news/articles/…

Russia does not need any excuse to jail people from countries it dislikes. This is especially true in light of recent events in Kursk. Anyone with a Western passport who values their life and freedom should stay away. It doesn't matter if they're unimportant or not political.

@DrRadchenko We should also be weary about making predictions based on a sample of 1 or 2, especially when the events in question happened under very different domestic and global conditions.

As a fellow historian, I would disagree with Kara-Murza's optimistic assessment. For a start, the Soviet collapse did not take 3 days. It was a slow process underpinned by structural economic deficiencies that Putin's Russia sadly does not have.

6. Realistically, the only ways to turn the Russian public against Putin is for A) Russia to unambiguously lose the war (no one likes losing) and/or B) for a total economic collapse. Neither is likely to happen, at least for the foreseeable future.

5. People point to German or Japanese post-WWII behavior as examples of people atoning for their country's behavior. But that atonement required a decade-long occupation of Germany and is still lacking in many ways in Japan.

To people surprised over the Russian public's continued support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the war's legality/morality and the high cost paid by Russia: A) the support isn't as strong as it seems, and B) it's the same kind of support we see in similar countries.