guenter stertenbrink

GCSP = Geneva Centre for Security Policy paper on the risk from new manmade pandemics : dam.gcsp.ch/files/doc/gcsp…

covid 220-country-update : magictour.free.fr/e-3n09.GIF

covid update : magictour.free.fr/e-3o25.GIF

covid update : magictour.free.fr/e-3o04.GIF

only a small covid wave this fall !?! magictour.free.fr/covid23.GIF

@CorneliusRoemer this looks different than previous widespread new variants, i.e. omicron which weren't much seen elsewhere before clear local waves

BA.2.86 report update New GISAID count data, now with extra columns Denmark and South Africa as these are the countries with >=2 detections (not counting US travel surveillance as US) 1/

@CorneliusRoemer we could recombine it in a lab .... if it makes SARS2 less virulent. or if we are just evil

In order for the recombination scenario to be likely, it's necessary for BA.2.86 to be present in fairly large numbers - something that may never be the case. So it's a follow-up scenario to the ones where BA.2.86 grows to a significant proportion. 14/

Here are counts of BA.2.86 and overall sequence submissions to GISAID Note that the English sample included in week 2023-08-07 likely got expedited, so it may be best to exclude from this analysis. 1/

@mikel_bioinf @jbloom_lab I uploaded ba.2 to here magictour.free.fr/ba2.txt

@jbloom_lab Where is the full (complete) sequence of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2? Could you write a link with the accession? Thank you

I wanted to provide assessment of spike amino-acid mutations in new highly mutated 2nd generation BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 variant This is analysis for those (like me) scientifically interested in SARS2 evolution (Anyone else is completely within reason to ignore this variant right now)

covid country-charts update : magictour.free.fr/e-3816.GIF

@EricTopol they should say how much higher in such headlines

"Our study found evidence of higher excess mortality for Republican voters compared with Democratic voters in Florida and Ohio after, but not before, #COVID-19 vaccines were available to all adults in the US." jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…

@adamjkucharski creating pandemics with AI protein-folding has no history - yet. That's maybe why humans are not concerned.

Throughout history, humans have shown that creating destruction is often not about being highly intelligent* - it's just a matter of being able to carry out routinely harmful actions at scale. Although would be interested to hear others' thoughts. *Manhattan Project excepted

Lots of focus currently on hypothetical superhuman artificial general intelligence, but it feels like a more immediate threat is AI that is reasonably competent at performing malicious tasks at scale. A few thoughts... 1/

USA credit default swaps at 65

Germany update: magictour.free.fr/rkii3331.GIF cases low, hospitalizations still strangely high

covid update : magictour.free.fr/owid3328.GIF only some hospitalization charts , OWID gives no more full 220-country-data

H5-influenza since 2014 : magictour.free.fr/bitsi45a.GIF

covid country update : magictour.free.fr/e-3316.GIF 4-day- delay now at OWID

German regions COVID-update magictour.free.fr/rkii3310.GIF

covid 200 country - update magictour.free.fr/e-3307.GIF

@tagesschau keiner verlangt Unterwerfung, afaik geht es um "Sicherheit", Ukraine Atomwaffen, NATO-Beitritt, die "draft"-treaties und die vergeblich geheimgehaltene Antwort darauf. Keiner hat (angeblich) was gegen Russische Sicherheit. Da muss doch ein Kompromiss moeglich sein ?!?!

Scholz in Regierungserklärung: "Friedensliebe heißt nicht Unterwerfung" tagesschau.de/inland/innenpo… #Regierungserklärung #Bundestag #OlafScholz

@UKHSA try to stay home when you are well, as well. Avoid people. Communicate via internet and telefone.

Here are some simple things we can all do to help stop #flu spreading: 🏡 Try to stay at home if you’re unwell 😷 Wear a mask if you have to go out when poorly 🧼 Regularly wash your hands 🤧 Catch coughs & sneezes in a tissue 🌬 Let fresh air in when possible