Gui Carvalho

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Gui Carvalho

Gui Carvalho

@guimonz

Engineer fighting unnecessary complexity at all times. Working on something new. Former @stripe, @airbnb, @upstart, @atob. Building in public: @secfilingapi

Winter Garden, FL Katılım Eylül 2009
369 Takip Edilen196 Takipçiler
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
Building SecFilingApi → a clean JSON API for SEC filings. No more scraping. No more messy XML. Just normalized insider transactions you can plug directly into backtests or trading systems. Join the waitlist 👉 secfilingapi.com
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Dirt Cheap Banks
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks·
Found a California bank trading at half of book value with a market cap smaller than most people's 401k balance. $490M in assets, decent profitability, and apparently nobody cares it exists. Sometimes the best opportunities hide in plain sight.
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Gui Carvalho retweetledi
Daniel Lockyer
Daniel Lockyer@DanielLockyer·
It's sad that we promote and encourage complexity in the tech industry I'd love to see more of a push towards simple solutions to problems
Daniel Lockyer tweet media
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@tomfgoodwin The best UX for it is a single text address box that autocompletes with Google Maps. Even if you skip typing the city and the state, you still need to type the zip and the street, and that's worse than just the first 10 characters of your address.
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Tom Goodwin
Tom Goodwin@tomfgoodwin·
Dumb question, but why do you need to fill in City, State and Zipcode. Surely the Zipcode and street name and number is enough
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Paul Gu
Paul Gu@paulxgu·
Dave and I always knew reinventing credit would be a long and multi-leg journey. When we started the company, almost everyone said credit was too competitive, everything had been tried already, no one would trust AI underwriting Today we still have skeptics. But Upstart is now a profitable, $1B revenue public company, backed by 100+ capital partners with a collective $14B outstanding in our loans. I’m immensely grateful and privileged to be taking the baton as CEO from Upstart’s strongest position ever, and excited to show the world why there’s nothing I’d rather work on.
Dave Girouard@davegirouard

Last week I shared the following email with Upstarters. The next phase of @upstart will be incredible! 💙

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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@nateberkopec In this world the plans would be treated like ToS. Consumers would scroll to the end and click accept, without reading, every single time.
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Nate Berkopec
Nate Berkopec@nateberkopec·
I think the future of consumer agents is “—dry-run for everything”. You present the user with a plan that the agent can follow with full, deterministic apply. The agent lives in a sandbox copy of the entire machine, and only applies to the real machine possibly even after simulating in the sandbox. This is orthogonal but probably helpful in audit and rollback scenarios. Coders are currently running around juggling chainsaws and thinking everyone will just also become chainsaw jugglers, or that not being able to juggle chainsaws is just a skill issue. LLMs are pretty bad at simulating the state of complex systems even 3-4 steps into the future. Deterministic planning tools could help bridge the gap by providing a kind of formal verification of an order of operations, or perhaps just running the plan in a full sandbox would be enough to catch the problems.
Nick Davidov@Nick_Davidov

Asked Claude Cowork organize my wife’s desktop, it stated doing it, asked for a permission to delete temp office files, I granted it, and then it goes “ooops”. Turns out it tried renaming and accidentally deleted a folder with all of the photos my wife made on her camera for the last 15 years. All photos of kids, their illustrations, friends’ weddings, travel, everything. It’s not in trash, it was done via terminal It’s not in iCloud, it already synced the new file structure. She didn’t have Time Machine. Disc recovery tools can’t see anything. I called Apple and they pointed me to a feature in iCloud allowing to retrieve files that were saved before but are no longer on iCloud Drive (they keep them for 30 days). I’m now watching it load tens of thousands of files. I nearly had a heart attack. Once again - don’t let Claude Cowork into your actual file system. Don’t let it touch anything that is hard to repair. Claude Code is not ready to go mainstream.

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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@zachweinberg Not completely, but it will severely limit how much they can charge. Saas is expensive for big companies because replacing was hard. With AI, it's much easier. But not all software is equal. Nobody is going to vibe code an Excell replacement.
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Tweets from Zach Weinberg
Tweets from Zach Weinberg@zachweinberg·
Can someone ELI5 if Claude Code is going to destroy every other venture funded coding tool or not?
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
.@github you should allow copilot to update your own settings if I ask it to. There are way too many options, and sending me article links is web 2.0 shit.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@davepl1968 I take my kids to school every day with FSD the whole time. 10 miles each way, local traffic, school crossings, no issues. It is already real.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu @BrandonLuuMD Think of the immune system as an army and getting sick as a war. You don’t want wars—but you also don’t want an untrained army. The ideal is frequent minor skirmishes, not repeated full-scale battles.
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Paul Gu
Paul Gu@paulxgu·
@BrandonLuuMD What’s your hot take on the optimal number of times to be sick before age 5?
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Brandon Luu, MD
Brandon Luu, MD@BrandonLuuMD·
There’s a common misconception that “the more often you get sick, the stronger your immune system gets.” This is the wrong mindset to have. Every infection is a roll of the dice: pneumonia, myocarditis, blood clots, chronic debilitating symptoms, hospitalization.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu I like the API idea and I think that by itself would do the trick. If revolvers could switch lenders easily with lower rates, that would force issuers to cut down spending on benefits.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@nateberkopec It's hard to keep an eye on everything, but if nobody truly understands how the system works, it will backfire eventually. Not knowing the peripheral parts is fine, not knowing the core isn't.
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Daniel Vassallo
Daniel Vassallo@dvassallo·
Maybe the billionaires have a lot less power than we thought. They’re being pushed out of their homes and can’t do anything about it.
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath

Unfortunate update as of today: More calls from friends. The total wealth that has left California is now $1T. We had $2T of billionaire wealth just a few weeks ago. Now, 50% of that wealth has left - taking their income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, real estate tax revenue and all their staffs (and their salaries and income taxes) with them. In other words, by starting this ill conceived attempt at an asset tax, the California budget deficit will explode. And we still don’t know if the tax will even make the ballot. California billionaires were reliable tax payers - 13.3% every year. They were the sheep you could shear forever. Now California will lose this revenue source FOREVER. Unless this ballot initiative is pulled, we will not stop the billionaire exodus. With no rich people left in California, the middle class will have to foot the bill.

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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@davegirouard @BillAckman @realDonaldTrump I agree 100%, but this problem (universities selling bad ROI, $150k education packages) was created as a result of a well-meaning government intervention (by making student loans undischargeable to guarantee universal access). We can't regulate our way out of financial illiteracy
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Dave Girouard
Dave Girouard@davegirouard·
@guimonz @BillAckman @realDonaldTrump I'm hardly a nanny-stater, but I would apply basic underwriting to fed student loans - the degree financed should likely generate sufficient income to repay the loan.
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
I think President @realDonaldTrump’s goal of reducing credit card interest rates is a worthy and important one. My concern about capping rates at 10% is that doing so will inevitably cause millions of Americans to have their cards cancelled as credit card companies lose the ability to adequately price subprime credit risk. Consumers denied credit cards will be forced to turn to loan sharks whose rates and terms will be vastly worse for borrowers. While 20% or more is a high rate, loan sharks can charge multiples of these rates, and the cost of default can be physical harm or worse. I have no investments in the credit card space so I am not the expert, but the market for credit cards appears highly competitive. The best way to bring down rates would be to make it more competitive by making the regulatory regime more conducive to new entrants and new technologies. I commend the President for his focus on affordability for all Americans. Mortgage spreads and rates are coming down significantly due it his actions. Finding a way to bring down credit card rates without taking credit away from many Americans would have a very positive impact on the most disadvantaged Americans.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu Ok but if you don't fix the underlying problem (the bad decisions due to lack of financial literacy), folks will keep finding bad deals to say yes to and you'll keep having to add more and more regulation to prevent them.
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Paul Gu
Paul Gu@paulxgu·
@guimonz I hate bans as much as anyone, but requiring high interest products to stay simple and transparent wouldn’t be crazy. The stakes and complexity are just higher than for say washing machines.
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Paul Gu
Paul Gu@paulxgu·
I’m for free markets and ultimately think literally capping credit card rates at 10% is a bad idea. However, I do think it’s right to consider seriously if something about today’s card market couldn’t work better for borrowers. In theory, as many are pointing out, interest rates are competitively set as a function of default risk, and if you cap rates lower, less people get access to credit. Under this model, taking card rates, which are often in the 20s, and capping them at 10, gets you credit Armageddon for ordinary Americans. In practice though, the credit card market is a uniquely poor representative of this theory. Many credit cards neither set their interest rates competitively, nor as a function of default risk. Consider - how many of your cards do you know the APR on? Instead, credit cards often charge a flat and high interest rate to fund signup promotions (0% for 6 months!) or points and benefits. Customers choose cards based on these incentives, never planning to carry balances at the standard APR… until some do. The equilibrium business model of credit cards is roughly for the 20% of people who fall the most behind plan to pay extra interest so that banks can still make money while giving the other 80% lots of freebies. This makes for a weirdly complex and regressive market, one that’s almost designed to get ordinary consumers into debt they didn’t intend. We ought consider whether the market would enable better consumer decision making if cards that charge interest were kept separate from teasers and rewards. We should want abundant credit access, and that means a wide range of rates, but we should want it in a form where it’s overwhelmingly clear what debt you’re signing up for, and where firms compete fiercely to get every individual borrower the lowest possible APR.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@davegirouard @BillAckman @realDonaldTrump If we go that route, shouldn't we also ban $150k studend loans for Gender studies degrees, payday loans, purchases of 0% down and 60 month terms, crypto alt coins, and even the lotteries? Schools should teach kids financial literacy instead.
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Dave Girouard
Dave Girouard@davegirouard·
@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Best way to lower credit card rates would be to ban rewards. They trick consumers into spending more - thinking they'll pay off their card each month.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu Banning A is an option, but a paternalistic one. If we go that route, there's a lot of other stuff to ban, like $150k student loans for Gender studies degrees, purchases with 0% down and 5 year terms, etc. If you gate some options by age or wealth, it's discrimination.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu Imagine every card had to come in two versions: A: 1% cash back, 60k bonus miles, 29.9% APR, $20k limit B: no rewards, 14.9% APR, $5k limit (damage-contained credit) Most people who should pick B wouldn’t. The problem comes from the lack of financial education.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@paulxgu True, but it saves them from being seen as wrong. Your underlying message is "Don't be afraid of being wrong, publicly." But that's easier said than done.
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Paul Gu
Paul Gu@paulxgu·
People like to avoid taking precise positions on hard questions, especially without solid data. But that doesn’t actually save them from being wrong, it just makes them wrong in more random ways. Because every action you might take, even inaction, makes sense only if specific things are true, you’re always implicitly betting on one view of reality or another. So embrace thinking under uncertainty and use whatever you’ve got - data, priors, people you trust. Stop worrying about “false precision” and proudly put your probabilities to work!
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@davegirouard @paulg That makes for much better writing, but it loses information in the process. The raw excitement (or anger) gets toned down.
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Dave Girouard
Dave Girouard@davegirouard·
@paulg exclamation point exhaustion is real. My rule is one per paragraph.
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Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
Jessica just sent an email to a friend of ours with a 4:1 exclamation point to period ratio.
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Gui Carvalho
Gui Carvalho@guimonz·
@shreyas "Look, Google and Meta will pay you more, but you'll be optimizing ad click-through rates. Here, we're rebuilding healthcare infrastructure for underserved communities... that changed millions of lives. " This is so real.
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Shreyas Doshi
Shreyas Doshi@shreyas·
My chat with Claude on how even highly intelligent people get manipulated in corporations and a way to recognize when manipulation is happening: claude.ai/share/dc05b65c…
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Keşfet

@shawngorham @yummocatvibes @dirtcheapbanks @tomfgoodwin @paulxgu @nateberkopec @zachweinberg @github