Guy D.

@FranVezz Imagine selling this after it closed below the 10D. Couldn't be me.

$MU (long) Closing in on a double here. No predictions, no guesses, no telling the stock what it should do. Just good old fashioned trend following. Maybe $MU topped today, maybe it tops in 6 months. I don't know, but better still, I don't even care. Trading gets pretty cool when you care less about the $, and obsess about the process. whop.com/smart-stocks-d…

@jfsrev Christ Almighty.

This market will make you appreciate high ADR% securities.

@shiri_shh What do you mean you can't validate the 95% claim? Listen to the sound your dog makes, look at what the app translate it into and just compare it to the Oxford Barking Dictionary to confirm? How do people not get that?

chinese startup built an AI collar that translates barks and meows into full sentences. 95% accuracy. cost $118. 10k people have already pre-ordered it. It uses mics, motion sensors, and AI to read body language and vocalizations.

@NickSchmidt Ofcourse you're bullish Tesla. You literally sound like Elon Musk. There is no chance you are not him.

This is why I think $TSLA is close to making a big move

My life in one image part 37

I find it odd people take credit for highlighting or even mentioning strong stocks that continue to be strong in their newsletter or analysis. There is a world of difference between actionable setups or highlighting strength.

$CXDO Super thin (acting like that would matter to me), but I like the setup here.

@NickSchmidt That has never happened to me except for five times every single week.

Having a thesis on a stock and it playing out perfectly without you is one of the worst feelings. Last year for me that was $GEV it was a special setup I was laser focused on. I took like 5 losses executed terrible. I was right but I made no money. Think I actually may have been right and lost money 🤣 I learned from it though. Made sure to focus when the same setup appears. If it wasn't for screwing up $GEV I would not have had nailed $MU which has been my best trade so far of the year. The pattern for me has always been something that really sucked or was painful has eventually turned into experience that made me more money in the future.

$CRCL Trades exactly like anything else related to crypto but could be forming a neat little handle here. It'll still stop you out a thousand times before it's done though but that's the best part of trading isn't it? A thousand tiny stop outs before missing the move.

@MarkRitchie_II As a dad, this was actually the highlight of the whole piece: “But who else was I going to call when my confidence was already waning right off the hop?” Your dad has won in life.

How & why I ended up picking the fighter in the blue trunks...(longer read warning) I may have shared elements of this prior but when I started on my own (Jan 2010), I was nearly 100% a quant. I had some ideas and figured all I needed was discipline and risk management and I’d be a millionaire in no time. I borrowed 50K from my dad in sort of a handshake deal, and he said, “Trade it like it’s 100K, and if you do well I’ll add.” Fast forward a few weeks and nearly all my first trades had been losers, to the tune of about $500–1,200 a piece. I was down a few grand and DYING on the inside. My dad was on the other side of the world in Southeast Asia working with orphans, and I didn’t want to tell him that my new trading adventure, which he had backed, was off to a bumpy start. But who else was I going to call when my confidence was already waning right off the hop? The conversation via skype call (this was 2010) went nearly verbatim like this: “Mac, what’s the problem?” he asked. “Uh, well, nearly all the trades have been losers and I’m losing a bit of confidence,” I said. “Were these within what you expected in terms of percentage drawdown?” he asked. “Yeah,” I said. “Then get back to work and take the next trade. If you can’t stomach the volatility, then cut your size in half.” End of conversation. Fast forward about 2+ years and, through a lot of hard work, I’d managed to run that initial stake up quite a bit and was managing somewhere in the neighborhood of 700K when I had my first six‑figure drawdown. I was up on the year but again dying on the inside and feeling like I’d had my guts ripped out. My pops was stateside when I invited him into the office for a similar chat. “Dad, I’m in the biggest drawdown I’ve ever had and it’s kinda eating me up.” “Why is that?” he asked. We then reviewed the gains and the relative drawdown, and I said, “I think this is normal given the run I’ve had, but it just feels awful. I want to be able to lose 10x this someday and NOT have it feel this bad.” “Now you’re thinking like a pro,” he said. “If you’re going to continue to grow, this is what you signed up for—and you’re thinking about it exactly right.” End of conversation. As luck or divine sovereignty (I always take the latter) would have it, I became friends with @PeterLBrandt shortly thereafter at one of his Trader bootcamps. I heeded his advice to always express risk and trades in terms of basis points and not dollars and never looked back. It felt like a weight was lifted off me. I don’t know how many of our cognitive biases are truly holding us back—and I’m not a psychologist—but for me, telling someone I lost 100 bp does not have the negative emotional pull that telling someone I lost 100K does. Yes, they are two ways of saying the same thing, but for me, one helps me stay grounded while the other leads down a road of emotional volatility that I don’t want to be on. Within a few years (end of 2018), I had the worst drawdown I’ve ever had in a single month and lost nearly 2 million dollars. I only share the dollar amount for illustration. To be clear…it sucked. However, it didn’t have nearly the gut‑wrenching hold that some of the prior periods had, because I was only seeing the BPs from my end and could get back to work knowing that the loss was acceptable (albeit really sucky) relative to how much I was trading and where I was for the year and overall. I wasn’t thinking about losing a house or a boat or all the things we like to attach to the capital we are trading. I think the moral of this story—at least for me (some of this is cathartic)—is that BP vs $ are two ways of saying the same thing, but one gives me much more psychological stability and an edge in my emotional capital and in this business, that can be a really big separator in the long run. Hope this helped someone. MR2

@jfsrev Hi Jeff, Could you elaborate on your execution on this one? Will you in fact take trades when they close above a level later into the session and not exclusively after the first 30m?

$ARMG (Update) - Huge +29% move with 117% RVOL in 90mins for a 222B market cap in $ARM

@joe365ppm @MarkRitchie_II Thanks for clearing that up

@guydroog @MarkRitchie_II the 16% number was as of the bottom end of march btw

Best evidence we aren't topping here... In my career (I'm officially an adult as I started full time in 07' & 2010 on my own) I've never seen a market top in ANY meaningful way with sentiment that looks like this. Normally this would suggest we have a way to go but more to the point sentiment to me is more about mood/environment (which can get WAY out of whack) than a timing signal. It tells me that most are doubting this rally still here and that macro stuff still has a lot of managers sitting on their hands.