Mark Ritchie II (@MarkRitchie_II) - Twitter Profili

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·31 Oca

To all my followers: So I just spent a brief time away in the mountains reflecting on the last 15-20 years with my best friend (she also happens to be my wife) and here's what I concluded at least for now when it comes to posting here going forward. I will try and avoid posting things that I do not think will be helpful in the market. The reality in my view is that most of twitter is full of noise, mostly by people who have views/opinions that don't help anyone make actual $ in the market. I am humbled by many of the compliments I've received here and other places (most recently our annual gala) that what I've been teaching is helping both on the MPA platform and here as well. That is my goal. I've done well and want to try and give knowledge to those in search of it. I'm the product of a few great traders influence and trying to do the same for those interested. I will not respond any longer to trolls, skeptics or critics. If you don't like me or what I'm saying do us both a favor and unfollow me. See Teddy above...'it isn't the critic who counts.' I'm not listening or going to respond as life is just too short and honestly I feel sorry for anyone who feels the need to project that kinda stuff on any social media platform. I also want to talk more about generosity and the need for it as people learn to grow in their wealth. As what does a man gain to earn the world and in the end 'forfeit his soul.' I have much more to say on this in time and going forward but a recent talk I did on this was very WELL received and only demonstrated what I believe to be a deficit at least in peoples thinking in this area. I'm going to be posting more examples of real trades and post analysis of both winners & losers. I have more losses so I'll probably be posting more of those but simply so people can see how I've handled things and how I try and continue to improve on process and risk management as ideas are wildly overrated. Lastly (sorry got a little long) I put the 'man in the arena' up there because my wife gave it to me many years ago when I got started on this journey. I've been thinking about what Teddy called 'a worthy cause' and I think investing in others (both generally and personally) is a good example of one going forward. I could be wrong and fail to do a good job but if so I'll attempt to do so 'while daring greatly.' Blessings. MR2

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·1d

@rah1265 love it

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Hans Gruber@rah1265·1d

@MarkRitchie_II Did you know that Chuck Norris didn't die of old age? He just got a VIP pass to the afterlife.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·1d

My son texted me the bad news, another one of my hero's gone. I personally love the 'things you should know' about Chuck Norris stuff more than I could communicate as it's funny, harmless, and somehow a throwback to the good old days when action movies and stars were corny and over the top in the best way. My personal favorite was 'the boogeyman checks under his bed for Chuck Norris'. Either way if you grew up in the 80s/90s and had WGN or UPN his movies were often on. None of them hold up really well but I loved them when I was younger. These should come with like a TV-MC rating or something (max corny or over the top) but just to name a few; Missing in Action Lone Wolf McQuade Delta Force Code of Silence Let me know Norris fans if I'm missing any as i know I am...

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·1d

I didn't think that was allowed...

Crowded Market Report@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt

Can anyone point me towards a macro analyst that is bullish the stock market here? I would like to interview him/her. Thanks in advance.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·1d

Post Analysis (part III): Most people think I decided to become a 'momentum or swing trader'. Nothing could be further from the truth and in fact when I started on my own (trading real $ where I was head of strategy and risk management) I was almost fully a quant. I had multiple strategies I was running based on models I had built mostly trading futures. I had one that was trading mostly index futures, another was a basket of commodity futures, a bond model, and one for the widow maker (nat gas). Some of the aforementioned approaches worked better than others but I quickly got bored just following models so on the advice of my Dad I started doing some discretionary trading. For some reason I choose day trading S&Ps and then some occasional swing trading in individual stocks. I took lots of notes and tracked everything for 6-12 months. I'll get into the stocks later but for the purposes of why I'm talking about this I want to look at the S&P trading. After about 6 months I had done a lot of short term trading and made almost exactly nothing. I had done a few hundred or so trades and effectively broken even. The entire venture felt like a failure. Then I dug into the numbers and looked at each trade based on the setup and notes I had taken. Then I saw there was one particular setup that seemed to have an edge. I didn't know why but that didn't matter, it was working. Not a huge sample size but I rand the metrics through Kelly & Optimal F and decided to trade it with the idea that if/when it had a 2 standard deviation drawdown I'd kick it out of the portfolio. I think that lasted for nearly 7-8 years and made well over a million in profits before that day came with an initial commitment of around 30K to the strategy. All from studying the numbers.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·2d

Meant to add one important thing that has defined this range is that strong opens or weak closes at extremes have all been faded. We are opening right near the bottom of the range and I'm watching to see if we see follow through

Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II

I've been talking about this range in the general market for weeks now and haven't been doing much in the way of trading as the environment for me has dictated a lot more spectating than speculating. A lot of cross currents continue however in the last week the NYSE has started to join the weakness as breadth has started to roll over and selling volume hit 4:1 there yesterday which is the highest level of the year and now all the major averages are well in red territory for the year as the small caps and NYSE have given way. The good news is that sentiment is starting to get scary with AAII and fear/greed going way negative but those are terrible timing indicators. Put/call also started to spike which used to be a decent indicator of a bottom is closer in the near term but all of this is good from a contrarian standpoint but not a timing one, at least for me. You also have precious metals being taken to the woodshed this morning so looks like the market is starting to 'get to everything'.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·2d

I've been talking about this range in the general market for weeks now and haven't been doing much in the way of trading as the environment for me has dictated a lot more spectating than speculating. A lot of cross currents continue however in the last week the NYSE has started to join the weakness as breadth has started to roll over and selling volume hit 4:1 there yesterday which is the highest level of the year and now all the major averages are well in red territory for the year as the small caps and NYSE have given way. The good news is that sentiment is starting to get scary with AAII and fear/greed going way negative but those are terrible timing indicators. Put/call also started to spike which used to be a decent indicator of a bottom is closer in the near term but all of this is good from a contrarian standpoint but not a timing one, at least for me. You also have precious metals being taken to the woodshed this morning so looks like the market is starting to 'get to everything'.

Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II

Nasdaq started this correction and base 5 or so months back. Under the surface she's been WAY more volatile than we've been led to believe but last 4-5 weeks we've had multiple tests on both sides of this trading range. For those thinking we can't go higher we've had a 5 month and nearly -10% correction where some areas have gotten killed so that is pretty standard mid-cycle bull market correction territory. I'd love to see more downside but with the VIX printing 30 yesterday in the pre-market this may be it for a bit. I'm content to sit until things make more sense and I'm curious to see where we close the week as this was exactly how we went last week...open at support, rally, fail and start rolling over mid-week, close lower on an increase in volume for the week. Lets see how/if we roll here...

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Mark Ritchie II retweetledi

Santiago Capital@SantiagoAuFund·10 Nis

This should be twitters motto

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4d

Happy St. Patricks Day to any of my Irish or Christian followers. It's actually a wonderful tradition imho if you read about who the real man was and his story (not the drinking and wearing green). The point for me is about what God can do with a surrendered life. I do love a good piece of corned beef though and I'll be having mine via an Irish Rueben so cheers & love to all of you eating the proper St Patty's day cuisine!

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·11 Mar

1. No, but you certainly could and then compare notes on the ones in 'uptrend vs down' etc. This is why taking notes and tracking stuff is great as you may find that when I trade abc setup in xyz condition I have an even stronger edge, that's kinda where this example comes from... 2. This is totally within my style just buying bigger names or more choppy type names. More efficiently priced (gold, etfs, or BIG caps vs single name growth/momentum) so less momentum hence a little wider on the stop and less on the overall avg win/loss.

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Breakout Pattern@breakoutpattern·9 Mar

@MarkRitchie_II Thanks for sharing Mark. Two part question. Based on this statement: "There were only 30 of these trades over two years." 1. Do you track market environment by setup? (Uptrend, downtrend, sideways) 2. Is this setup within your circle of competence? (Breakouts & pullbacks).

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·9 Mar

Part (II): Most traders do very little true post-trade analysis, and I won’t go down the rabbit hole on why—that’s a topic for another day (part IV, V...you get the idea). What I will say is that it has been, and continues to be, a cornerstone of what we do. The starting point is simply tracking and cataloging trades. That’s first base. It’s the basic blocking and tackling of trading, just like using stops or knowing your pain point on a trade is fundamental to risk first trading and good risk management but you can go a lot deeper there as well. When you take good notes, you can perform much deeper analysis on your trading. For example, over the last year or two we’ve taken a few more trades in situations where we don’t expect explosive momentum, but we can be more creative with structure and give the trade a bit more room initially—provided the instruments are very liquid. Think $GLD, $IBIT, bonds, certain ETFs, or highly liquid stocks that may not be screaming with momentum but are still very tradable and where our timing is less likely to be as precise. Historically, we would have avoided these types of setups, but part of the goal is to grow and mature as traders rather than become dogmatic. So I broke out all of these “lower-momentum, high-liquidity” trades from the past two years and looked at the results in terms of R-multiples (with 1R simply being the amount risked per trade). The good news: we have a clear edge. These trades win about two-thirds of the time (roughly a 66% win rate), and our average winner is about 1.5 times the size of our average loser. The less-good news: there were only 30 of these trades over two years. The reasons for the small sample size are a whole discussion on their own, but for now the takeaway is that we’ll continue to take these kinds of trades—and potentially more of them, if the market offers the opportunities—because we have greater confidence that there is a real, established edge here. This is where confidence and knowledge start to converge. Back to GI JOE, as in this case, I now KNOW I have an edge the next time I see a situation like this. A year/two ago I had much less confidence. The longer I go and the more of an established historical edge I have the more confident I get going forward. I'll discuss ways in which we use this more and other examples in the next post...

Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II

Post Trade Analysis (part 1): No better place to start than my favorite childhood cartoon and toy series good old G.I. JOE as 'knowing is half the battle.' If you don't know what your edge is and how it works (i.e. how you manage it) then maintaining profitability in the long run is far less likely and maximizing is literally impossible as how can you maximize anything you haven't studied/measured??

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·11 Mar

Surprised this post was allowed...no one in social media or tech wants this cat let out of the bag.

Nicholas Fabiano, MD@NTFabiano

2 weeks without smartphone internet significantly improved sustained attention. The effects were similar to being a decade younger.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·10 Mar

Nasdaq started this correction and base 5 or so months back. Under the surface she's been WAY more volatile than we've been led to believe but last 4-5 weeks we've had multiple tests on both sides of this trading range. For those thinking we can't go higher we've had a 5 month and nearly -10% correction where some areas have gotten killed so that is pretty standard mid-cycle bull market correction territory. I'd love to see more downside but with the VIX printing 30 yesterday in the pre-market this may be it for a bit. I'm content to sit until things make more sense and I'm curious to see where we close the week as this was exactly how we went last week...open at support, rally, fail and start rolling over mid-week, close lower on an increase in volume for the week. Lets see how/if we roll here...

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·10 Mar

I think all of us, especially those in authority (parents, teachers, coaches, leaders of any kind) should embrace saying...'I don't know'. Some of the thinkers/leaders I respect the most aren't the ones who 'have all the answers' but those who are humble enough to know they don't and are able to continue to learn, think logically/critically, and change their mind(s) as the information changes.

Santiago Capital@SantiagoAuFund

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·9 Mar

Post Trade Analysis (part 1): No better place to start than my favorite childhood cartoon and toy series good old G.I. JOE as 'knowing is half the battle.' If you don't know what your edge is and how it works (i.e. how you manage it) then maintaining profitability in the long run is far less likely and maximizing is literally impossible as how can you maximize anything you haven't studied/measured??

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·6 Mar

This week things have definitely deteriorated under the hood. Russell 2K/$IWM has rolled over. $IBB/biotech looks to be doing the same and my watchlists have all shrunk pretty meaningfully as the individual names that were holding have started giving way as well. I'm not getting overly bearish (I try to never do that) but our process has been flashing some warning signs and the job is to heed them and play defense.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·5 Mar

@JPvanEssche you said it!

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JP van Essche@JPvanEssche·5 Mar

@MarkRitchie_II “Great time to do more spectating than speculating”

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4 Mar

Now this is a truly great quote. I should have known I was simply borrowing from Pascal. This is right up there with 'Pascal's wager' which has had a great deal of influence on my personal worldview. Many thanks @EsoulTrading

Esoul@EsoulTrading

@MarkRitchie_II “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone” - Blaise Pascal Although this quote as nothing to do with trading. I think there’s a great trading lesson to be learned from it.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4 Mar

A lot of people who get into trading struggle when they “aren’t doing anything,” because the desire to trade in and of itself can be more powerful than most realize. In our office we have a phrase: “boring brings the breakthrough.” That’s true both for process and for handling winning and losing periods. Someone visited our office last year and was surprised by how calm the overall environment was. They described it as “zen.” That’s not my personal worldview, but I took it as a compliment as it was their way of saying we were very unemotional. If you find yourself getting emotionally excited about being in the market, that’s a signal to be on guard. I’m a big believer in Ed Seykota’s line from the original Market Wizards: “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market.” It took me a long time to understand what he meant, but coaching has reinforced it as I talk to people frequently who struggle with stepping away or slowing down regardless of how things are going. When my kids were younger and complained about being bored, I’d say, “Great—embrace the boredom. It’s giving your mind and soul needed rest.” They hated that answer and eventually stopped saying they were bored. Years later, my now–young-adult sons are starting to see the value of breaks, and of things like intentional silence and solitude in what has become and increasingly noisy world. I think most traders’ maturation process is similar. Almost every robust approach requires stretches of “boredom” that are actually essential for long‑term success. It’s something I’m still working on as I write this. If this week stays boring, I’ll share more about how I use post‑analysis in times like this.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4 Mar

@paulsicatt This is a good base, I have it on a watchlist. This is the type of situation in a better tape I would likely trade. Right now its one of the few ideas that looks buyable when my last 4-5 trades have not worked so I'm likely to watch or play small

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Paul Sicatt@paulsicatt·4 Mar

@MarkRitchie_II Hello. Quick question: How would you define the base in this scenario? The price has remained above the MA200 since Q1 2024, but there was a market correction in May 2025. Would you consider this an early base, viewing the correction as a reset, or a late base? $IDCC Thanks

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·3 Mar

Good question... In this environment I would not say we have gotten to 'destruction mode' that you described. There are times when volatility widens massively and everything gets killed. That's easy as you step aside, raise cash and wait for the dust to settle. The interim road between a healthy market and nasty slide is the more dangerous, at least for me as there are ideas to keep you engaged and trading but the volatility is too high or you just get chopped around. The thing I'm always watching for even on days like today is 'what is holding up the best' and then asking 'what would I need to see to get involved'? Today I was looking early to see if anything out there on my watchlists were green, early on nothing. Then we bounced and a few started to perk up. A good example from today would be a name like $AA here, I have it on a secondary watchlist and if you look it shook the 50-day and came back pretty strongly. I drew in a permutation of something I'd want to see for me to get involved. May happen, probably not but its the idea of knowing ahead of time what would be normal/constructive. I go through tons of names like this and don't assume anything as I probably screen 500 stocks to find one to trade so I'm always running through 'what if's' knowing that usually I'm not gonna be involved, that's part of having selective criteria. The other thing I like to do in corrective periods is put the index underneath names on my watchlist to look for relative strength on tough days. I've said like a million times I don't take my cues from the index and that is not what I'm doing here but looking for RS over the index. In this case you can see the $SPY barely comes off the lows in the morning and $AA snaps half the down move right back. I want to see resilience in a stock and that is how I try and find it by comparing the stock to the market not vice versa.

Mandeep Singh@ManageRiskFirst

@MarkRitchie_II Hi Mark, Rookie question: During the high volatility times, charts get destroyed / no tight setups etc. what do you watch for when the tide turns, what homework would you recommend for a momentum swing trader. And Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4 Mar

@11111111111_z exactly...sometimes these tells are major lows, sometimes not. Again I'm not a bottom fisher persay but if you are last few days should have been game on

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11@11111111111_z·4 Mar

@MarkRitchie_II Yesterday was a tell. While the market was melting down overnight $btc was putting in a higher low and respecting that 66,000 level.

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Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II·4 Mar

I almost nibbled on $IBIT the other day for fun (no real size) and decided to stay away as not much is making sense to me here. Price action looks like it's bottoming as it didn't make new lows the last few days and I highlighted the positive divergence in $COIN post earnings. I'd rather wait for confirmation and some form of a tradable pivot even for another bottom and these studies back that up.

Mark Minervini@markminervini

On balance, Bitcoin can take a couple of months to bottom even after a sharp decline. A couple of things to watch: MSTR has tended to lead Bitcoin at key turning points. IBIT — the largest Bitcoin ETF with roughly $69B in assets — has seen about $2.7B in outflows over the past 21 days. I’d like to see those fund flows stabilize and shift positive for a reliable bottom.

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Mark Ritchie II

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