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ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟʟʏᴇʀ 🖖🏾 ⚜️

@hahellyer

🇬🇧 ✍ ‣ Geopolitics & Security ‣ Middle East & Europe ‣ @RUSI_org & @AmProg Senior Fellow ‣ formerly @BrookingsInst @CarnegieEndow ‣ @RoyalHistSoc Fellow

London - MENA - Washington Katılım February 2011
6.6K Takip Edilen43.8K Takipçiler

2026 Yıllık Özeti

@hahellyer hesabının Twitter yılını gör

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Bruno Maçães
Bruno Maçães@MacaesBruno·
The Ceuta affair is especially serious because it represents the moment 22 EU member states said: we refuse to accept Spain’s attempt to develop an independent Europe and a sovereign foreign policy. We want to be vassals
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Jeremy Konyndyk
Jeremy Konyndyk@JeremyKonyndyk·
Nearly a year into the ceasefire, Israel still has not ceased fire.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨The Gaza Board of Peace high representative @nmladenov and Board of Peace senior adviser Aryeh Lightstone met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and asked him to stop the strikes in Gaza as Israel pledged to do when it agreed to President Trump's 20-point plan, per source familiar

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Mehran Haghirian
Mehran Haghirian@MehranHaghirian·
Yes, the dialogue on Hormuz is between Iran & Oman now, but it is absolutely clear that the Omanis are representing the interests of the other 5 GCC states, & the broader international community that includes the US, mainly because they share the same concerns & interest.
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Akbar Shahid Ahmed
Akbar Shahid Ahmed@AkbarSAhmed·
Lots more revelations in there about Gaza policy after October 2023 — and lessons for those proposing any alternative Israel-Palestine approach, for Democrats or Republicans. CROSSING THE RED LINE is out 9/22. Preorder your copy today 🙏🏽 wwnorton.com/books/97813241…
Matthew Petti@matthew_petti

An interesting line from @AkbarSAhmed's upcoming book: a Biden administration official told him that they avoided sanctioning settlers and settlement organizations “too deeply intertwined with the United States.” That sounds like they purposely made sanctions toothless...

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Timothy E Kaldas
Timothy E Kaldas@tekaldas·
Attacks on Spain by many EU leaders isn't over nonexistent threat to EU from Ceuta but an apparent hatred of Sanchez. They're humiliated by his ethical stance on Gaza & Iran. He shows recipe for more & more sustainable growth is migration & stimulus, not xenophobia & austerity🧵
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Arwa Damon
Arwa Damon@IamArwaDamon·
Two days of ISRAELI strikes, just to be clear. Either way the head of Trumps so-called Board of Peace is not happy. And this now from @haaretzcom "Israel demands freedom to strike areas of the Gaza Strip set to be handed over to a temporary International Stabilization Force under the emerging agreement between Hamas and U.S. President Donald Trump's Board of Peace, a source familiar with the matter told Haaretz."
Nickolay E. MLADENOV@nmladenov

Two days of strikes across Gaza have killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies that people depend on. This comes after intense efforts by the @BoardOfPeace and the mediators (Egypt, Turkiye, Qatar and the US) to bring the Palestinian factions in Gaza to agree to a Roadmap on the full implementation of President Trump's plan, to hand over civilian governance and to decomission their weapons. Both parties carry obligations under the Comprehensive Plan and the Sharm El Sheikh deal that secured the release of all hostages. My team and I are working around the clock with the parties, the mediators and regional partners to de-escalate and create the space for the full implementation of the President's plan. Achieving a lasting peace is hard but achievable if everyone make their best efforts.

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Kim Ghattas
Kim Ghattas@KimGhattas·
This weekend, Israeli army dropped explosive barrels over south Lebanon+ burnt olive groves. In another village, it appears to have uprooted whole olive trees and taken them away. I said on @gzeromedia, and as early as in March on @PodSaveAmerica, that it's not so much whether Israeli army will occupy parts of south Leb long term, which it might, but that it appears to be making the border area uninhabitable.
GZERO Media@gzeromedia

Lebanon wants Israel out. Israel wants Hezbollah disarmed. Both countries see their US-backed framework as a path to fundamentally different outcomes. @KimGhattas tells @ianbremmer why forcibly disarming Hezbollah could risk another Lebanese civil war. #gzeroworld

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"Egypt strike warns U.S. assets vulnerable — analysts" includes my thoughts tribune.net.ph/2026/07/31/egy… Full comments to AFP: "It's unlikely that Iran would have struck Egypt directly from Iranian territory, as the distance for those drones is rather extensive, but it is possible their allies in the so-called "Axis of Resistance " may have done so via the Houthis or possibly Iraqi militias. If so, it means expanding the conflict even further, and that means that Iran's strategy is very high risk, with a lot of downsides for their security relationships. Cairo has hitherto stayed out of the conflict, but if Iran forces otherwise, Tehran could find itself with a wider coalition stacked against it." ""Cairo and others would see an attack by any Iranian-aligned group on Egyptian territory as a formidable escalation, and that won't go down well for the medium to long term at all for Tehran."
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"Europe’s far right stokes ‘invasion’ fears after mass border crossings in Spanish enclave" NBC piece nbcnews.com/world/europe/e… Includes my thoughts: Dr H.A. Hellyer pushed back on the way some politicians framed the episode as proof that Europe’s borders had been breached. “The idea that this was somehow a threat to Europe and the rest of Europe, I find quite funny in a very sarcastic fashion, because of course Ceuta and Melilla aren't in Europe; they're in Africa,” he said. “So irrespective of how many people manage to get into Ceuta, they still have the Mediterranean Sea to cross.” He said far-right parties see events like Ceuta as opportunities to present themselves as the only political force capable of restoring control. “I think that they want to use stuff like this to say, look, this is why we should be in power,” he said, arguing that such moments allow them to portray established parties as unable to protect the public. Describing the message they try to project, he added, “If stuff like this happens, we’re the ones that can take care of you, not them.”
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The implication is larger than this week’s diplomacy. If military options continue to yield diminishing returns, Gulf states will increasingly shape the negotiating process. The centre of diplomatic gravity may be shifting from Washington to the region itself.
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The real strategic contest is the Strait of Hormuz. Washington wants the pre-war status quo restored. Tehran sees the Strait as its strongest source of leverage against future military action. Those objectives are fundamentally difficult to reconcile.
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