Mark Hamrick

Now live via The Hamrick Brief: -The Creator Economy, massive, still growing, and you're part of it. -The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a birthday this week, more than a century old, and just hit a new record high. -And, much more. open.substack.com/pub/thehamrick… -Check it out on Substack.

@talmonsmith Well done. 🐊

been toying with this concept & I think i'm sticking with it It's not a K-Shaped Economy It's an Alligator Jaw economy /__ The Top Tercile/Quintile (pick your threshold) is sharply up & to the right But since covidflation/Jan'25 (pick your time) bottom half outcomes are ~flat

Good news: Affordability is helping to rebuild cities in the Midwest. wsj.com/us-news/akron-…

Always a lively conversation with Chuck. Listen here: moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/voyas-stein-ra…

The @WSJ fails to make an important point here: What's at stake isn't limited to his presidency and the GOP. Success or failure on the part of an administration has immense implications for the entire nation, and the role that the U.S. plays for the globe. It's not just an inside-the-Beltway issue. wsj.com/opinion/trump-…

Eric Stein of  @voya and Bryce Doty of Sit Investment both see interest rates and Treasury yields rising, but not for long, because it'll quickly destroy enough demand that rates will be lower by year's end. Plus @hamrickisms on the impact of peaking mortgage & inflation rates.

Deep dive: Consumer sentiment, as measured by Univ. of Michigan, sinks to new record low. Assessments of the present, the future and on inflation all deteriorate with surging gasoline prices. linkedin.com/posts/markhamr…

How low can we go with consumer sentiment? The latest is a record low: Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment declines for a third straight month as Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions continue to boost fuel prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historic low in June 2022.

This week's economy, in plain English. Jobless claims: 209,000. Low. The job market has remained resilient. Mortgage rates: Average is 6.60% for the 30-year fixed, per @Bankrate, highest since last August. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is being sworn in on Friday. He takes over from Jerome Powell with most officials now talking about rate hikes, not cuts. Higher-for-longer is the outlook for interest rates. Focus on what you can control: pay down high-interest debt, budget conservatively, and watch for rising savings yields. That is where opportunity lives right now.

Between the flat-earthers out there saying the mission didn't happen and AI hijackers, we've crossed over some kind of line -- and it's not good.

JUST IN: In a 396-13 vote, the House passes revised bipartisan housing legislation, sending it to the Senate washingtonexaminer.com/news/house/457…

America's federal debt has hit a new milestone. The last time it was this high, we'd just won WWII. This time, we have no victory, no national mobilization to show for it. Read all about it in this week's edition of The Hamrick Brief on Substack.

What if there were a burgeoning debt crisis and the nation's elected officials did nothing (but make it worse)? The federal debt has now surpassed a scary milestone. What does it mean about paying interest and crowding out spending on things we need, like healthcare? Read about this and much more via The Hamrick Brief on Substack. I hope you’ll subscribe. (it’s free!)

Pending home sales defy rising mortgage rates and home prices, up month over month and year over year, and a number of markets are red hot right now: linkedin.com/posts/markhamr…

U.S. federal debt has hit 100% of GDP. Last time it was this high: 1946. We'd just won WWII. This time, there's no victory in the rearview mirror — and interest payments now cost more than national defense. New, via The Hamrick Brief: thehamrickbrief.substack.com/p/a-debt-miles…

@perfectsense991 I'm not a fan of having put words in my mouth. There's nothing there that I've said.

@hamrickisms So you are saying the goal should be to slow down the economy because oil prices are higher and thus the ripple effect of higher energy cost has made other items have higher cost? So if we raise capital cost for consumers then prices will surly fall? 🤪 Democrat thinking?

The Producer Price Index indicates that consumers haven't yet seen the worst of inflation. Translating this gut punch and why a rate hike from the Fed can't be ruled out. My latest via Substack: open.substack.com/pub/thehamrick…

What might a chief central banker say to this? Here's one possibility: You’re correct that the Federal Reserve cannot pump more oil, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or directly lower the global price of crude. Monetary policy doesn’t fix a supply shock. But what the Fed can do is prevent a temporary energy shock from becoming a broader, embedded inflation problem throughout the economy. My takeaway: The lessons of 2022 are still very fresh in the minds of Federal Reserve officials.

@hamrickisms Raising interest rates won’t lower the price of oil. Omg 😆

Two updates today: April retail sales up 0.5% on the month. Jobless claims are still low at 211K. The U.S. consumer keeps showing up, but credit card delinquencies are hitting 15-year highs in some pockets. Resilience and strain, at the same time. My take via LinkedIn: linkedin.com/posts/markhamr…

@KenGiglio Thank you, pal!

@hamrickisms Come for the AI analysis; stay for the intentional pun! Nice job, MH.

Artificial intelligence: A savior or the devil, or something in between? My take in the latest edition of The Hamrick Brief, via Substack: @thehamrickbrief/note/p-197142674?r=2gqyy&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@thehamrickbri…

Kevin Warsh is confirmed by the Senate as Federal Reserve Chairman. His job, already tough, has just gotten tougher. I explain why (see latest inflation data): linkedin.com/posts/markhamr…