hassan hamzeh
2K posts
@hamzeh_ir
🎓 M.A. in MENA Studies & Arabic Translation 🌍 Regional Affairs Analyst & Translator (AR-FA)
Returning back to war? From Tehran's perspective, the United States and Israel are pursuing a coordinated strategy aimed at weakening both Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance. This perception, combined with President Trump's continued insistence that no meaningful economic relief will be granted to Iran, reinforces the Iranian leadership's belief that it must take action rather than remain passive. This dynamic is closely linked to a simple reality: as long as there is no agreement between Washington and Tehran, spoilers on all sides will continue to drive escalation. The absence of an agreement means there is no sustainable status quo to preserve. Given the profound gaps between the Iranian and American positions on key issues, including uranium enrichment and the future of regional proxy networks, the potential for escalation can only be contained for so long. If President Trump genuinely seeks a deal with Iran, he will need to create diplomatic space for negotiations. That would require pressuring Israel to halt its military operations in Lebanon and approving at least limited economic relief during the initial phase of negotiations. Without such steps, the likelihood of dangerous escalation remains significantly higher than the prospects for a negotiated settlement. Above all, it is increasingly clear that Iran is far from being deterred. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. After 39 days of conflict, Tehran is behaving as though it emerged from the confrontation in a stronger strategic position. Rather than projecting caution or restraint, Iranian leaders continue to signal confidence, emphasizing their resilience, their ability to absorb pressure, and their determination to maintain their regional posture. Whether this perception reflects reality is almost beside the point. What matters is that Iran does not appear to view itself as a defeated or intimidated actor. As long as Tehran believes it can withstand military, economic, and political pressure, the prospects for coercing major concessions through pressure alone remain limited. This reality increases the risk of further escalation and complicates efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement. The coming hours are likely to be critical in determining whether the current escalation can be contained. With tensions running high and all sides seeking to shape perceptions of deterrence and resolve, the risk of miscalculation remains significant. Decisions made in the immediate future both in Tehran and Washington / Jerusalem, as well as by regional actors, could determine whether the crisis moves toward de-escalation or enters a far more dangerous phase. #IranWar
“A narrow path to a deal still exists, but it will require U.S. concessions, on both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file,” write @jekavanagh and @RKelanic. foreignaffairs.com/iran/trumps-le…
A new spotlight report by @INSSIsrael presents ten charts documenting the global economic effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From surging oil, gas, and jet fuel prices to disruptions in aluminum and fertilizer supply chains and mounting pressure on the global food price index, the charts collectively illustrate how a single vulnerability in the global economy evolved into a catalyst for a multidimensional crisis. inss.org.il/publication/ho…
