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The RBI just did something it hasn't done since 2011. Worth paying attention to. On Friday evening, after markets closed, the central bank issued a circular capping authorised dealer banks' net open rupee position in the onshore market at $100mn per day. Compliance by April 10. No transition. No consultation. Just a hard stop. The rupee is at 94.84 — an all-time low. Down over 4% since the Iran war began in late February. Worst-performing Asian currency this calendar year. FPIs have pulled ₹1.27 lakh crore out of Indian equities in 2026. Oil is above $100. The current account is bleeding. That's the backdrop. But the proximate cause of this circular isn't the macro. It's what banks were doing inside it. When the rupee comes under stress, the offshore NDF market prices in more depreciation than the RBI-managed onshore rate. That spread is structural in a crisis — because the NDF is a free market and the onshore is defended. Banks figured out they could sit in the middle and print money. The trade was clean: buy dollars onshore at the RBI's defended rate, sell them in the NDF at the higher offshore price, net the two positions under the old NOP framework, and book the spread. A bank long $2bn onshore and short $2bn NDF showed zero net exposure. Technically compliant. Economically, a one-way extraction. The old NOP rules were designed for risk management, not for a world where the gap between onshore and offshore rates becomes a systematic arbitrage. Banks weren't breaking any rules. They were following them perfectly, which is precisely what made it a problem. Here's the part that matters for India's macro. The onshore market is where the real economy clears — every oil import invoice, every FPI redemption, every export receipt converts here. The NDF is synthetic. No rupees exchange hands. It settles in dollar differences. So banks were creating real dollar demand in the market that touches the economy while hedging in one that doesn't. The RBI was selling reserves to hold the line. Its own licensed dealers were buying those same dollars — not for clients, not for hedging client flows, but to fund a basis trade. Reserves fell. Rupee weakened. Spread widened. The arb got bigger. The more the RBI defended, the more profitable the trade against it became. That loop had to be broken. The $100mn onshore cap, regardless of NDF offsets, is the break. Now the unwind. Estimates range from $10–18bn (Reuters, citing traders) to $40bn including options (Business Standard). Some large foreign and private banks reportedly ran overnight positions up to $1bn individually. These positions were built at one spread. They have to exit at another. A disorderly unwind could blow the onshore-NDF spread well beyond entry levels — the Rs 4,000 crore MTM loss figure assumes roughly Re 1 spread widening on $40bn. That's the bear case, not the base. The base case is a managed but concentrated dollar supply injection in the onshore market over 10 trading days straddling fiscal year-end. CR Forex Advisors is pencilling in 92.50–92.80 near term. That's mechanical — forced selling in a controlled venue with the central bank watching every tick. Banks want 3 months. Their argument is reasonable: most of the arb book sits in the 1–3 month bucket. Give it time to mature naturally and there's no panic, no spread dislocation, no MTM crystallisation. The RBI met treasury heads on Saturday and has so far given them nothing. The silence probably means the urgency is deliberate. Two risks to the rupee appreciation thesis. First, the macro doesn't care about the cap. Oil above $100 widens the current account deficit by roughly 0.4% of GDP per $10/bbl. The FPI outflow story is not over. The geopolitical risk premium on India — Iran Strait exposure, oil dependency — is real and sticky. Second, if the unwind is disorderly, the spread blowout in NDF actually creates worse hedging conditions for importers and corporates at exactly the moment they need cheap cover. What the RBI has done is close the channel. It has not changed the current. Near-term, you get mechanical rupee support as $10–40bn in dollar longs get forced out of the one market the central bank controls. Medium-term, you're back to oil, outflows and the conflict. The 2011 parallel is instructive but imperfect. That intervention also worked in the short run. The difference is that NDF-onshore market linkages are structurally deeper now — the offshore tail wags the onshore dog more readily than it did fifteen years ago. Closing the arb channel helps. It doesn't sever the connection. Fiscal year ends Tuesday. April 10 is the hard deadline. Watch the onshore-NDF spread intraday — that's the real-time stress gauge. And watch whether the RBI buys dollars forward to manage the other side of the volatility it's engineering. This is not a routine prudential measure. It is a central bank using structural controls as a substitute for reserve depletion. Different tool, same intent. The rupee gets near-term support. The macro problem remains open.

This is made to disrupt modern trading interfaces!

If LLMs become better in deterministic calculation, no need for it to write python codes so much.

To hope is human(e)

Always believe that something wonderful is about to happen.. 🥰

I’m hiring an intern at my firm need someone who understands options, can code in Python, has high agency, and can turn ideas into alpha. We’re punters, not professors but we can guide. Please DM

Saw this couple of times on my TL and thought to give it a read. This is one of the best year end posts.

The final chapter of Harvey Firestone’s autobiography is titled, “Why I am in Business.” Every person considering starting a company should read this. If it fires you up, you’re in the right place.

One of the best things to do while building is to just keep reading @paulg essays. You end up avoiding most mistakes. Exhibit: paulgraham.com/bronze.html

@dhwaninanavati Definitely true. Trying to get more data around this here x.com/hardik__more/s…

Every day, roughly 18,000 earners in India cross into the Rs. 40k+ per month income bracket. That is about 6.6 million people a year. This is a net new cohort of individuals who now care about saving, investing, wealth creation, and personal finance. We’ve spent the last few weeks thinking about this problem: what does the next decade of personal finance in India look like? (1/3)

I’m trying to understand how people really think about tax - What triggers decisions, what gets ignored, and what people blindly trust. If you’ve ever thought “I might be doing this wrong”, I’d value your input 👇 forms.gle/pm5dpAcjYVSrYn…

Tax planning for most Indians = June anxiety → WhatsApp CA → “jo best ho kar do” → forget till next year. But tax isn’t a form-filling problem. It’s a year-long decision problem that quietly shapes your wealth.

Honest question: Who actually decides your tax strategy? • You? • Your HR payroll template? • A CA you talk to once a year? • Or… nobody at all? Most people never consciously decide. And still pay the price.

few companies can build something open source, get adoption and make it lasting. respect.

Startups have their backs against the wall and they keep fighting, some choose to help others in the fight. This is one of the best open source initiatives from any Indian startups - each of these can transition to paid products/SaaS tools right out of the box.