Harshal Pawar

Nvidia paid 3X Groq's September valuation to acquire it. This is strategically nuclear. Every AI lab was GPU dependent, creating massive concentration risk. Google broke free with TPUs for internal use, proving the "Nvidia or nothing" narrative was false. This didn't just demonstrate technical feasibility, it revealed that Nvidia's moat was shallower than markets believed. When a hyperscaler successfully builds custom silicon, every sophisticated buyer starts running" should we build our own?" calculations. This drops Nvidia’s TAM. Jonathan Ross (Groq’s founder) is the inventor of TPU. He understood the architectural principles that made non-GPU AI acceleration viable. His LPU architecture targeted inference workload where GPUs are actually over-engineered. This matters because inference is where the real money is long-term. Training is one-time capex, but inference is recurring opex that scales with usage. If Groq proved LPUs could hit competitive price-performance on inference, every cloud provider would white-label their architecture. Nvidia would get squeezed into "just training" while losing the annuity stream. It is safe to see this deal as Nvidia insuring against Groq enabling an entire ecosystem of Nvidia alternatives. But what is more interesting is the second-order effect, the customer lock-ins. Now, Nvidia owns both the incumbent standard (CUDA + GPU) and the most credible alternative architecture (LPUs). This is MSFT buying Github-level strategic. Any AI lab evaluating "build vs buy vs alternative vendor" now faces: - Option A (Nvidia GPUs) - Option B (Nvidia <> Groq LPUs) - Option C (start from scratch) Turning a competitive threat into a customer segmentation tool, Jensen is the master of trades. They can now price-discriminate: premium customers pay for GPUs, price-sensitive inference gets funneled to LPUs, and Nvidia captures both. If Nvidia doesn't integrate LPUs in its roadmap, this was a pure defensive play. If they do integrate it and start offering "GPU for training, LPU for inference" bundles, this becomes a textbook moat-widening acquisition. The most expensive thing in technology isn't building the future, it's preventing someone else from building a future without you.

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Finally! I got waitlisted, one step closer.