Harsith

I wrote an article in defense of war markets. They've long been the most controversial offering from prediction market companies and appear quite likely to be legislated or regulated out of existence quite soon. Frankly, I think that might not be the best outcome for the public.

competitive high school debate has done more for me in life than my uc berkeley cs degree

Does parity on dataset questions mean ForecastBench is “solved”? No. On market questions that require judgment about novel, one-off events, LLMs are still behind. Even on dataset questions, the 64.9% achieved by Google DeepMind is unlikely to be the ceiling of what’s possible. ForecastBench doesn’t stop being useful at human parity. It will continue tracking LLM progress even if they surpass expert human forecasters.

The best outcomes for some of the Neolabs will be to turn into quant trading firms