Mid-Level Cruiser

MID-LEVEL MANTRAS 1/4 ignore your inner karen trust your gut silence the inner voices of fomo and ego 2/4 be motivated by max return on min effort 80:20 rule time is too precious to not be a bit lazy 3/4 never get stuck in how you think the path of least resistance is ok float in the river of new ideas 4/4 if you are trading options always be closing mid profits vs. max loss

@NoLimitGains You can also just read the 13F for free like everyone else.

You have 3 days to follow this account before it’s too late. Make the right choice.

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy Yeah a very fair comment and I think reflects market sentiment, despite impressive #s their position in the market is unclear

@midlevelcruiser @pepemoonboy Meta havent presented any roadmap which is more risk to me. At least it should be clear how it is invested. If they say they want to clone anthropic with llama model, I'm in. They were on this ai frontier before anyone.

There are too many people (esp big account) saying $meta earnings is amazing, no red flags, yet price went down. This seems to imply it's a good buy. I interpret as they dont know what's going on and you should buy. Seriously you can't base your investment on just numbers itself. Big part of is to anticipate how business evolve. Simply not trying to understand why is what get you into trouble. There is also a fallacy of safety in numbers (in other words more people buy so it must be safe). Sometimes the biggest is not the safest.

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy yea I agree, goog is the no brainer buy and the market agrees

@midlevelcruiser @pepemoonboy If you think really hard or not sure, just don't buy it. Plenty of choices out there.

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy my question for you is, agentic AI pushes ads and AI slop to users, but on what platform? Do they stop using insta, fb etc?

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy I can’t wrap my head around if AI will compress ad pricing or accelerate it (Jevons Paradox). My gut reaction was the same as yours but might be too obvious. Overall, revs showed acceleration, faster than any quarter in 5 years

@adenois objectivity one of the worst calls I’ve ever made. No, not holding, ate a 500K loss and switched teams.

@midlevelcruiser Bad call in hindsight sensei. Still holding?

very few stonks have the hype potential of an 11GW hypergrid datacenter REIT with Rick Perry as co-founder $FRMI Texas 4ever.

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy what’s interesting to me in that print is revenue is accelerating QoQ. How much of the narrative is driven by price caused by capex fears?

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy I agree DVB, my gut is the same on Meta… and agree we don’t know what it looks like yet. Seems a few layers deeper than I can predict today.

@daniel_koss my instinct is the same, but they posted there biggest reflex growth number in years (33%). What drove that?

I see a lot of very bullish posts about $META and how this -10% "dip" is an easy buy. My recommendation: be cautious and really think this one through. We're entering a new paradigm. Many of Meta's customers are small and medium sized businesses that spend a lot of money on advertising to consumers. AI is eliminating a lot of those businesses and inequality is sadly increasing almost everywhere globally. This puts META in a very tough where a) their customers are under attack b) their product is getting less valuable It's not all bad of course. They have great talent. Still print money and have plenty of room to experiment and pivot and also Marc is clearly young and ambitious enough to keep fighting for META until they find their future. I'm just trying to point out: this is not a "free money" nobrainer dip to buy from my POV. There are many better risk/reward opportunities in the market. But I get that many people really love this company and stock. The moat their Social Networks have are obviously crazy and they have a lot of incredibly valuable data. The potential of what they could build with that is immense.

@DeepValueBagger @pepemoonboy Intellectually I agree. But Meta posted the biggest revenue growth (33%) in years. What’s the gap?

I'm bearish on retail business related, $hood, $sofi, anything have to do with retail spending. $Meta derives much of it from ads spending which in turn from small business. Some of the growth you should discount from inflation. Why am i bearish on retail business? Ai Armageddon. Meta is a big dinosaur that needs fight for survival. The advent of agentic ai means people can replicate 10000 fb network overnight, think niche networks, w/o reach of Facebook. The quality of Facebook has degraded a lot. My Facebook shorts recommendation are 100% ai videos or edits - it's optimizing clicks over long term engagement. I keep saying meta needs new big revenue channel, not a speculative retail agentic platform whatever. Start running cloud ai or something like anthropic. Be ambitious. They have all skillset and asset tl do that. They got the dc, they got the llm model, and they know to build. If they actually do this, i would buy. But without much information about their roadmap, i would be cautious with the risks and reward.

@fit_businessman @mementovitam after a certain price, isn’t Delta low enough with their calls ITM for them to stop buying? I would guess we are there now

@midlevelcruiser @mementovitam Yea they are buyers.. he doesn’t have any clue what he’s talking about and grok answers talking about the hedge prior to popping collar. They are being delta squeezed in their hedge forcing them to buy futures as delta increase.. to hedge they will buy >6865: sell <6865..

FACTS OVER NOISE Mechanics inverted + “never in history” already false. JPM Q2 2026 Collar (rolled 31 Mar, ~$22B notional): •Short Call: 6,865 •Long Put: 6,180 JPM = short call → Dealers = long call → As SPX rallies toward 6,865 from below, dealers sell ES futures (mechanical selling = ceiling). Not “buy above”. Tickmill (1 Apr 2026): “Dealers hedge by selling futures as SPX approaches the strike from below.” “Never popped in first month and sustained”?
 False. SPX already breached 6,865 early in Q2 and is sustaining above it (Apr 16). Worse: StatQuants data → In 24 of last 32 quarters SPX breached the short-call at least once. Closed above it at quarter-end in 17. (Not “never”.) Pure zero-cost hedge for JHEQX. Not directional win/lose. Data > narrative.

@fit_businessman @mementovitam this far over the JPM collar, do they not become buyers of futures to hedge? Genuine question, trying to understand the mechanics

@mementovitam Dumbass they are referring to collar today.. 🤣🤣🤣 of course they popped it and it hasn’t gone under yet.. this is 1st time it has 1st month and held.. you don’t understand collar mechanics.. I bet you don’t even know how the strike are chosen..blocked!

@anni_sen @Umbisam on paper yes

@midlevelcruiser @Umbisam Washed out to levels at start of war.

oil / time to go long again ?

@willweathersby @Umbisam I *feel* like by Friday we are heading back down. That being said I was way early and currently down almost 60% on May 29 puts

@midlevelcruiser @Umbisam What you feeing? Puts about to print?

@Umbisam First squawk is full of it

BS

@Banana3Stocks the S&P 500 dropped 25% the year Russia invaded Ukraine. It was the start of a bear market.

$SPY $QQQ Are you guys all tripping about the war? Are you concerned how the market is going to handle Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? No, that’s not the war you’re thinking about? Why not? When Russia invaded Ukraine - Brent shot up to $139 a barrel and WTI went up to $133 per barrel, that’s worse than the prices we have now 🤔 Did the market crash and collapse? No it didn’t, it made dozens of new highs while 1.4 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE DIED. Not a couple hundred or a few thousand, 1.4MILLIONNNNNNNNNNNNNN… and the market got sick of selling off from the same news Everyone on X was calling it World War 3 and said Putin was going to put back the USSR and so much crazy rhetoric everyday BUT BANANA, this is different and worse… NO ITS NOT. Russia has the biggest stock pile of Nuclear Weapons on earth. They kept threatening they would use them if we and others kept arming and helping Ukraine Yet…none of u panicans and douchey fear mongers even bring it up anymore. That’s cause the new hot girl at the dance is Iran vs Trump…Ok, soon enough the market and most of us will give the same two craps we give and care about Russia and Ukraine as we do about Iran and Trump Back in the Russia Ukraine war (which is still literally going on) the high Oil prices of - Brent: $139 & WTI: $133…lasted a few months. Then oil went to $60 🤯 The same shit will happen here There…I solved everything…you’re welcome 💜🍌🍌🍌

@blcurley fair point on the CNBC. Idk if Blue Owl’s redemptions (22-41%) + peers gating is solely retail panic. Tech exposure and liquidity stuff feels real. I’m neutral, but curious to hear what banks say this week.

@midlevelcruiser Other than Andrew Ross Sorkin telling us every day how private credit is in trouble, it appears private credit is fine. Blue Owl redemptions are more from CNBC fear mongering of the retail crowd.

Bank earnings this week: - Mon, 4/13 - $GS - Tues, 4/14 - $JPM. $C, $WFC - Wed, 4/15 - $BAC, $MS very interested to hear outlook around consumer strength and private credit

@bitcoinbutcher1 good comments as usual BB and agree. Curious to hear if there’s talk on gas prices, Jamie Dimon was pretty hawkish about this last week

@midlevelcruiser Gut feeling from some preliminary data is higher credit card balances and the consumer is not thriving from what I see at my business GDP spend getting support from AI spend but everything else is likely flat or down and even worse in real terms

@otium33 😬

@midlevelcruiser bro why rt this we need to go up 🤣🤣

biggest and most painful rug pull of the year incoming