@frank_liquid No need to hedge, odds of it happening are 0%. They could offer 5555 gazillion dollars if they wanted but they chose 1 billion to make it « realistic »
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hawkline
97 posts
hawkline
@hawklinecmd
macro quant trader, always on the move
Bali Katılım Ağustos 2025
127 Takip Edilen111 Takipçiler
Where is Kalshi hedging the probability of a perfect bracket?
Kalshi?
New York Post@nypost
Kalshi is offering $1 billion prize for a perfect March Madness bracket trib.al/0Lunf1S
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@KingBootoshi It will encounter issues in the first few phases and will have to rewrite all the next phases, waste of time and tokens
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oh man someone on here introduced me to the "superpowers" skill (link below) and it's looking DISGUSTING
it might actually one shot converting my web app into an expo mobile app for ios...
i'll post update later
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We are reaching unprecedented levels of overfitting, ai will soon reinvent coin flips from first principles
Sharbel@sharbel
I’m building an autoresearcher to test every single trading strategy possible and find the best one possible. This is a massive unlock for predictive analysis. Wish me luck. 🤝
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This is why most modern analysts are bad at their job
The world has changed so radically that using 1960s jungle warfare as a benchmark for modern precision conflicts is a blatant category error, you're comparing a typewriter to a computer and expect to gain insight...
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki
We had air superiority over Vietnam, and spent 8 years dropping millions of tons of bombs on it. They never begged for peace, let alone let us pick their leader.
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@LeoMargolis_ Yes but I think the only exception should be insiders from positions of power. For example the maduro insiders could have genuinely given a heads up to Venezuelan guards and endangered the life of US troops. Same for hostage situations etc
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I hate the idea of regulation against insiders in prediction markets. If you really wanted PMs to reflect the objective truth than traders with insider information would be the most valuable market participants.
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@sergi_Iub C'est parce qu'ils ignorent les conséquences indirectes de leur vote, pour eux, l'absence de mention explicite "faire venir 4m d'immigrés" dans un programme vaut décharge de responsabilité
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@LeoMargolis_ True, AI is incredibly powerful at gathering and organizing intel, yet fails to grasp WHY the data is relevant and what we can make of it
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AI makes building Polymarket algos much easier and is great for automating the actual remedial stuff but I think a lot of ppl outsource the thinking which is the most important part. You won't get ur clawdbot to think up some genius strat that nobody has thought of before
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@stockxsucks It’s surely fake or exaggerated, how does myfitnesspal have that much money to spend on a gpt wrapper?
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Friends texted me all weekend asking what’s going on in Iran.
They didn’t ask the geopolitics or history majors, they asked the macro trader, because human intuition is an organic prediction market.
We naturally discount the fence-sitters and seek out the people who actually take a financial reward for being right
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Food for thought: WW3 might not start in the Middle East, China or Russia, it might start between the US and France/UK to stop an Islamic republic from becoming a nuclear power inside NATO.
Obviously sci-fi for now but interesting to think about, how will the US react if France actually becomes an Islamic republic?
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Good investment for next 5 years is defense companies that focus on autonomous defense systems in the middle east. These ME states are small and can't justify a big army, they will want the latest drone swarm or whatever AI military tech they can get with the trillions they have
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@OAlexanderDK Prediction markets aren’t genius oracles, but they consistently front-run social media and legacy media by minutes (which is an eternity in markets). It’s the closest thing we have to actual outcome prediction of ongoing events
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Crypto bros will be like:
“THE PREDICTION MARKETS PREDICTED IT!”
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hawkline retweetledi
there's an AWS outage in me-central-1 because it got bombed
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@INArteCarloDoss It’d make a good war movie plot but it just doesn’t work like that irl. Assuming your analysis outsmarts the combined intelligence of the US and Israel is arrogant, they made that decision for a reason
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I despise the mollah regime, but killing Khamenei was a miscalculation, typical FAFO move. He was the highest living Chiite religious figure, killing him is akin to eliminating the pope or the Dalai Llama. This is not how you creat the conditions for a popular uprising.
1/5
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