hayden
389 posts


Hi everybody!
I'm relatively new to @Kalshi and this is the first time this has happened to me...
They settled this before the match began. The match is not cancelled or anything. Did they settle this simply because they felt like it?
Because of the rules of how "contracts" work, I just lose $92 because I bet the favorite? Does this mean someone who bet the underdog makes money on this? That logic doesn't make any sense to me.
Someone educate me! I feel like I have been robbed😭

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⚠️ DO NOT USE @courtsideapp
After refusing to payout a $31,500 wager their current stance is they have the right to void any bet even after settlement. They are now threatening legal action for my posts made on social media about them not paying out. Their only offer to me was to void all of my bets instead of just paying the winner. @AlexCaruso, who continues to promote courtside, remains silent on the matter.

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This is why I love prediction markets
Kalshi Market:
HR Derby Finals Exact Outcome
Junior Caminero beats Jordan Walker
I placed $975 on NO at 97.5c/share to win $25.
Doesn't sound impressive right? Well what if I told you that I sniped this completely risk free?
With the rules change in the HR Derby this year, people didn't realize that in the 2nd round it becomes bracket style (1 seed vs 4 seed | 2 seed vs 3 seed)... Knowing the rules, I realized that since Caminero was facing Walker in the 2nd round it would be literally impossible for this outcome to happen in the finals since one would be eliminated in the 2nd round.
Although the 2nd round matchup was set and this couldn't even happen, people were still buying YES on this market between 1-3c/share. Unfortunately those people were literally throwing money on the ground.
Fortunately for me, I was picking it up.
One of the biggest edges in prediction markets is simply just knowing the rules.


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Guess the temperature of my rental home when I walked in today and you get a personal memorabilia from the Open Championship
Three digits (__._)
Celsius


Michael S. Kim@Mike_kim714
It’s kinda amazing at the lack of AC in even the nicer homes in the UK
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@dylan_corbet its okay bro its twitter 💀go take a walk and drink a water
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@hayds2k True I recognize that, but these fucking morons acting like they are nosferatu
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Aren’t you the Sharp that took Thunder to win the title?
Chris@Flupnolide
@RobDFS_ @dylan_corbet you are marginally less stupid
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@dylan_corbet its like being rich. the bigger the winners you will never see them on X doing victory laps and acting like this bro. obviously you are profitable but theres always gonna be a bigger fish
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@hayds2k I mean yea I’ve been winning bets all fucking year and now I gotta deal with fucking planet fitness put me on the treadmill hero lists
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This was a joke
I’m an American. I’ve never watched cycling in my life. I watch American sports plus soccer every two years
All y’all need to call the number yesterday, there is no TDF play 😂
I am Prediction Markets@KalshiSquare
I have a solid play for tomorrows Tour de France stage but I don’t think anyone on here cares enough Please correct me if I’m wrong
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Until I joined @kalshi 6 months ago, this was the only sports bet I had ever made.
I had a bankroll of $0 but $10,000 in my bank account. I bet $8,000 on @FloydMayweather to beat @TheNotoriousMMA.
I now have a bankroll of $40,000+. How much should I bet on the McGregor v Holloway fight? And who should I bet on?

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If you are a bettor that just wants the goods and the best of the best in the modeling game, here is where you go:
@LiveLockAI
@HomeRunPredict
@POTDJay
These 3 I have found to be extremely helpful/resourceful. If you have a product you'd like me to try, please reach out!
Best of luck on your betting journey!
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@POTDJay @HomeRunPredict @TheBetDesk @LiveLockAI If you truly had a sharp model then why sell it for so cheap or put how many factors are built into it in your bio
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@hayds2k @HomeRunPredict @TheBetDesk @LiveLockAI So that’s up to the user, I wouldn’t discount models and projections, mine are quite sharp without embellishment
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@POTDJay @HomeRunPredict @TheBetDesk @LiveLockAI Not at all, can be a great tool if you know what you are doing but often times numbers are hallucinated and can steer you the wrong way if you don't know what you are looking at, just like in any profession
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WHICH BOOKS ARE ACTUALLY SHARP ON MLB PROPS IN 2026?
We've been collecting a ton of data. We're going to use that data to give you guys some insight👀
Plus, you get full access to the data📊
Our first article is now live, written by @KeepOnBetting
smartstake.app/learn/sharpest…
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@TheBetDesk @LiveLockAI @HomeRunPredict @POTDJay filtering data isnt the same as projections and modeling. the accs u tagged all do projections which are possible via modeling
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@hayds2k @LiveLockAI @HomeRunPredict @POTDJay That’s fair, but can’t you use AI to help filtrate some data vs solely building a model to rely on AI?
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