Hella Hueck 

Nieuws: Pieter Waterdrinker raakt column bij EW kwijt tzum.info/2026/03/nieuws…

The situation in #IranProtests - short summary: A. First of all, we must remember - there is a lot of disinformation, mainly from elements who seek to establish the understanding that "the regime is breathing its last breaths." Reports of the collapse of cities, the defection of senior officials, and the preparation of a refuge for the Iranian supreme leader in Russia are part of an ongoing effort to create the feeling that the regime is just days away from collapse. B. What do we know? The regime has no intention of giving up. #Khamenei 's speech yesterday likely signaled a significant increase in the regime's repressive efforts, and so it appears that there were serious clashes between protesters and regime officials tonight. C. The regime's main problem remains - it is unable to stop the protests even after measures such as cutting off the internet. This fact and the increase in repression efforts will probably lead to a significant increase in the number of casualties in the coming days. But even if the protests calm down, the regime's situation will still be extremely complicated. D. It should be remembered that the regime in Iran has a stable support base. It should be noted that over 13 million people voted for the ultra-conservative candidate - #Jalili - in the last presidential election. Such a support base constitutes a support for the regime and the activities of the Basij and Revolutionary Guards. These are not going to disappear easily. E. And yet, given the fact that the regime is not a "Monolith," it is likely that behind the scenes there are struggles regarding the policy that the regime should adopt. This fact is important because, contrary to the expectation that the regime will collapse in one day, the high probability right now is actually for changes within it, whether a dramatic change in policy led by figures like President Pazhakian, Ali Larijani eith the support of former President#Rouhani, or extreme changes in the regime's policy if the IRGC takes responsibility for the country. F. In the background, it should be remembered that there is no real opposition to the regime inside Iran, while outside Iran the opposition is conflicted and weak, perhaps challenging the regime on a symbolic level (calls for the return of the monarchy) but influence on on the ground except spreading disinformation in massive numbers. G. We must also remember that quite a few Iranians who oppose the regime fear the collapse of the regime into a vacuum that will lead to instability in the country, along with fears of Iran disintegrating into provinces. This fact is especially important if the current government can offer something that is not the current policy. In other words, there are many people who oppose the regime but at the same time are very afraid of their fate if this regime collapses. H. The Achilles heel of the Iranian security system is the army. It is doubtful that we will see any defections in the Revolutionary Guards in light of their deep commitment to the regime, but the army is precisely the body that will be challenged given a significant escalation in the regime's repressive efforts. I. Against the backdrop of the expected dramatic increase in repression efforts, the dilemma in Washington will worsen regarding the question of their involvement and support for the protesters in light of President Trump's statements on the subject. But let us not be surprised that the administration could take advantage of the current situation and once again offer Iran (as it did during the war) a new diplomatic agreement in which Iran forgo enriching uranium on its territory. Bottom line: The regime is been challenged with an unprecedented demonstrations, perhaps the most serious since the 1979 revolution. But those expecting a rerun of Syria case may be disappointed, as the regime still has significant pockets of support that will lead a tough crackdown in the coming days. Based on the protesters' reactions, significant changes may be taking place within the government ranks before any collapse that might not occur...

.@hellahueck heeft gelijk. Het wolvendossier laat zien wat er misgaat in Nederland: ecologen dicteren beleid, bestuurders voeren uit en burgers dragen de risico’s. Nederland wordt gegijzeld door ecologische dogma’s. Niet gekozen clubs bepalen beleid, burgers betalen de prijs. Van wolf tot stikstof: veiligheid, voedsel en leefbaarheid zijn bijzaak geworden.