Highcroft Investment Advisors

In our tactical portfolios, which follow an AI Driven rules based momentum strategy, our stops were triggered in late February Those assets were shifted into U.S. Treasury bills. Currently invested 80% in T-Bills and 20% in commodities and gold. Preservation mode until the smoke clears. #bearmarket

source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 05/11/26

You can't make this up, literally the day after Iran's 14 point plan is deemed "totally unacceptable" by @realdonaldtrump - Donald Trump says that Tehran is stopping enrichment - I think this is the 15th time we have been told this???? Strait of Hormuz - Iran - War

CPI - Inflation Year over Year - surges in a short time period to 3.8% annualized, highest level since May 2023. #inflation

@stoolgambling I guessed Minneapolis initially, because I live in a Mpls suburb. But, the Wild is in St. Paul. Only 3 pro teams in Minneapolis (Wolves, Twins, and Vikes).

Which city with a team in all 4 major sports leagues has the LEAST amount of championships

@BlueChipPremium Thanks Larry you do a great job.

@billglahn There were charges that were dropped and I have seen that some of those charges carried stronger potential sentences than what defendants plead to. These people could have been pressed with all the charges and been sentenced to many many more years. They got off easy.

I've updated my spreadsheet on Feeding Our Future sentences for #14 and #15. #16, Aimee Bock, is next up on May 21.

@JackFarley96 Best place to get your pod YouTube?

My message to those complaining I'm covering AI/Semis too much at expense of "bread & butter" Macro topics. Here's the reality. What's moving markets: - AI - Data Center CapEx What's not moving markets: - Treasury Issuance - Banking System - FX/Rates - Fed // Liquidity

@TheBubbleBubble A 50% retracement after a parabolic move is almost textbook.

Silver’s correction was necessary to flush out excessive bullish speculative sentiment and now that it is no longer overbought, it is in a much healthier position for the bull market to resume. Learn more in my latest analysis: thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/counting-dow… $SLV $PSLV

@mnguncaucus Did @grant_hauschild vote for the gun control bill in the senate?

That feeling when you're about to commit political suicide by voting on an egregious gun ban bill.

@hajiyev_rashad This is a non-log chart which is best for a narrow range, log charts are the standard - especially when looking at large returns over longer time periods.

Silver's 6-month triangle is about to find a resolution in the coming days and weeks of May. Note that during previous 3-month run, silver gained 170% from October 27, 2025 to January 28, 2026. The next rally is going to be more violent and could easily produce 200% from present price level (apex of the formation) tripling silver price to my minimum $240 target by July 2026. I do not mind if the rally extends to $300 and extends to fall, but at $200 plus, I would personally start unwinding my positions... Have a nice weekend!

The taxpayer is picking up the bill for companies that hire illegal labor, such as their healthcare (which is a huge cost). These companies are getting away with stealing from society, essentially. The company and the illegally hired employee are not paying FICA tax, meaning you have tens of millions of workers who are supposed to be paying into the Social Security system but they aren't. This further weakens Social Security. The illegals bring kids who are filling creating extra costs per pupil, but the vast majority of these illegal employees are not paying property taxes. The tens of millions of illegal employees place excess demand on housing which is one of the primary drivers that is making owning a home almost impossible for Generation Z. Adding in all these costs could easily exceed $200B annually. That is $200B that the companies who hire illegal labor should be paying.

Fun fact of the day! Illegal aliens contribute about $31 billion in tax revenue per year, according to a report by FAIR. But they cost Americans an estimated $182 billion per year. Never let a Democrat claim illegals aren't a drain on the economy.

The taxpayer is picking up the bill for companies that hire illegal labor, such as their healthcare (which is a huge cost). These companies are getting away with stealing from society, essentially. The company and the illegally hired employee are not paying FICA tax, meaning you have tens of millions of workers who are supposed to be paying into the Social Security system but they aren't. This further weakens Social Security. The illegals bring kids who are filling creating extra costs per pupil, but the vast majority of these illegal employees are not paying property taxes. The tens of millions of illegal employees place excess demand on housing which is one of the primary drivers that is making owning a home almost impossible for Generation Z. Adding in all these costs could easily exceed $200B annually. That is $200B that the companies who hire illegal labor should be paying.

@libsoftiktok @grok how much money do illegal aliens contribute to the us economy and how much do they cost American tax payers?

@EricSpracklen The U.S. is a net importer of oil. It is a net exporter of petroleum products. youtube.com/watch?app=desk…

If we are exporting so much oil why is gas still basically $4+ a gallon across the entire USA?

@erkoPollo @crescatkevin It exists now. Each hyperscaler will be judged independently. $GOOG for example - products on their Gemini models have grown 800%+ TTM. Capex does not necessarily translate into an asset heavy business when applied to a network-effect business.

@highcroftinc @crescatkevin In theory maybe, but it’s unclear when these investments pays off. For $1tn investment and 20% margin you need at least $5tn of revenue just to get to breakeven. They also undergoes from asset-light to asset heavy businesses, which should result in lower PE and ROIC valuations.

Free cash flow race to the bottom.

@gnoble79 It’s undervalued.

This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I've seen in my 45 years on Wall Street. SpaceX just disclosed Musk's new compensation package: He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power. Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective: The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America's entire power grid... in orbit. This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC. But here's why it actually matters for your portfolio... The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it. SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER. Now let's talk about what is actually being sold here: Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch. xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash. Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up. The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION. The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative. Then layer on what we just learned last week... The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable. This is the same playbook he's run for two decades. Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses. The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER. The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware's fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away. Here is the part that finishes the case for me: Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X. This raise is not funding the future. It's just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own. In my 45 years I've never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet. I've never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude. I've never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual. Every red flag I've watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight. The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale. And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail. Don't be the one holding it.

@BillMelugin_ @FoxNews They also raided Fulton County, nothing is happening with that. Nothing will happen for this. GOP starting to manufacture headlines with this, SPLC, etc b/c they're finally realizing how bad their turnout will be and the blackpill polls are actually the accurate polls.

BREAKING: DOJ confirms to @FoxNews that FBI and HSI agents are currently raiding 20+ locations in the Minneapolis, MN area in relation to ongoing federal fraud investigations. Sources tell FOX the locations are largely Somali linked businesses, including the infamous "Quality Learning Center". I'm told these are court approved search warrants being served and they are tied to fraud, not immigration enforcement. Fox is told 22 search warrants were executed in Minnesota this morning. DOJ spokesperson holding statement: “Today the FBI with federal, state and local law enforcement is involved in court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation.”

@NoLimitGains #bitcoinbros latest Reddit trade

What do you call this pattern?

$SLV possible breakout, bull trend, inflation a tailwind IMHO #silver #preciousmetals $GLD