Chris Hitchen

Thanks for the write-up @SaysSmithy @PossibleVC

GitHub Copilot pioneered AI coding assistance. First to market. 20 million users. Then Claude Code & OpenAI Codex launched in mid-2025. Within six months, Copilot's daily installs peaked & declined while competitors surged past 100,000 combined. The sword didn't fall on a laggard. It cut the early leader. If Microsoft can lose share in six months, no one is safe. I analyzed 374 quarterly NDR observations from 25 public software companies. For years, the decline looked gradual. Net dollar retention fell from 125% in 2022 to 112% in 2025. Quarter by quarter. No cliff when ChatGPT launched. No acceleration when enterprises adopted Copilot. Then came 2026. The 25th percentile fell from 106% to 101% in a single quarter, now touching the breakeven line. The weakest companies are bleeding first. Zoom sits at 98%. Asana at 96%. The bottom quartile is now contracting. The companies in the bottom quartile face different threats, but they share one trait: products simple enough to replace. Bill.com (94% NDR) serves SMBs depressed by macro conditions. Zoom (98%) faces near-free alternatives in Teams & Google Meet. Asana (96%) offers task workflows that competitors & AI agents can replicate. Macro pressure. Commoditization. Competition. AI. Each blade cuts differently. The bottom quartile will see accelerating losses. Some may tip into outright contraction. The sword of Damocles hangs by a single horsehair. For simpler products in competitive categories, that horsehair is fraying. tomtunguz.com/software-ndr-d…

@PaulBassat @SquarePegCap @airwallex Awesome PB, congrats

We are excited at @SquarePegCap to have led the Series F for @airwallex, representing the 7th time we have invested in them since 2017 and the largest cheque we have ever written. Airwallex is now valued at $US6.2b, cementing their position as the 2nd most highly valued Australian startup. When we started @SquarePegCap in 2012 there was a lot of scepticism about the Australian startup ecosystem. There was a group of successful companies that emerged during the internet era such as SEEK, REA Group and carsales and Atlassian was emerging as a global giant. However many skeptics dismissed these companies as the handful of exceptions. That isn’t the case any more. Australia is producing some incredibly exciting global businesses. Airwallex is one of the most exciting of all, founded by CEO @awxjack @awxlucy, Max Li and Jacob Dai. We are thrilled to have led their Series F with participation from a group of great investors. What Jack Zhang and his colleagues have achieved in a decade is remarkable. It is due to a combination of clarity of vision, ability to identify an important gap in the market, superb execution and incredible dedication. Airwallex helps tens of thousands of businesses with their increasingly complex financial services needs. These companies are typically the global first, digital first companies that are growing fast and have quickly become such a critical part of the global economy. If we go back a few decades we saw the emergence of truly global banks such as HSBC and JP Morgan with an army of salespeople and dozens of important but expensive and complex financial services products. Today the modern global fintech abstracts away complexity using reliable and powerful software that can meet the needs of customers globally. There are a lot of great companies competing in this space but if you are operating a digital first, global business then @airwallex is likely to be the best answer for you. As part of the round I am transitioning from a Board observer to Board member and excited to deepen my relationship with the company.

🚀 Marvel Fusion Secures 60 Million Euro Series B Funding 🚀 In addition, we are honored to have been selected by the @EUeic Accelerator program with additionally up to 17.5 million Euro. @HV_Capital @EarlybirdVC

@PaulBassat Congrats for stepping up @PaulBassat, love the positivity and engagement

I’m incredibly excited (and very nervous!) about the launch of AMPLIFY. I have always felt enormous gratitude to have been born in Australia but, like many of you, I felt that we weren’t going in the right direction as a country. I started turning my mind to what we might do about the situation and got advice and encouragement from some amazing people. We decided to set up an organisation that is all about community at its core. So what is AMPLIFY? AMPLIFY is a community where Australians get to have their say and make a difference on the most important issues that we face as a country. We are non-partisan and completely independent of any political party. Anyone can become a member of AMPLIFY at no charge.  We are seeking to find “uncommon ground” and identify the right solutions to the big issues facing Australia. We will do this by bringing our community together for events in all parts of the country, we will facilitate online conversations, share evidence, talk with experts and come up with solutions.  The way in which we will make an impact is by taking our ideas to politicians and Amplifying the voice of our community to spark change. Our goal is to help Australia become a more prosperous, fairer, more cohesive and happier country. I will be serving as founder and Chair of AMPLIFY. My job at Square Peg is not changing in any way. Georgina Harrisson is our CEO and has been doing a remarkable job since joining last October. I am also really proud that my son Joel is an important part of the AMPLIFY team. I am grateful to the amazing group of people who have joined the board; Suzi Carp, Rona-Glynn-McDonald, Kate Jones, Gill McLachlan, Dom Perrottet, Kate Pounder, Mike Schneider and Zara Seidler.  If we are going to be successful we need your support.  You can sign up at our website and become a member in a few seconds. Please spread the word. Please share this Tweet or, better still, post your own Tweet and share with your audience.

The VC backlog is clearing. IPO pipeline is filling (both upround and downround IPOs) and M&A is on 🔥 - both strategic deals at great valuations and distressed deals where VCs getting 50% to 100% of $$ back. The 2 year lag to the public market correction is here. 🙏🏼👊

Make music without recording it, cook dinner for yourself, sing in the shower, draw middle fingers while you're on annoying calls, BE A HUMAN!

@VinnyLingham Wowwww

South Africa!!!!!!! What a game!!! 🇿🇦 #rugbyworldcup2023

Super excited to announce l've accepted a new role as an Investment Manager at @PossibleVC! With a focus on early-stage startups, Possible Ventures is dedicated to harnessing frontier tech - that’s deep tech, life sciences, and software platforms (dw that includes blockchain!)

Proud to announce that Marvel Fusion & @ColoradoStateU are collaborating on a $150M Laser Facility! This public-private partnership marks a turning point in laser-based fusion development and accelerates our goal of commercializing fusion energy. marvelfusion.com/marvel-fusion-…

👀@handelsblatt interview w @MarvelFusion's Heike Freund: -Only fusion company w a customized & power plant-ready laser facility -Implementation w @ColoradoStateU accelerates validation -Public-private partnerships help #deeptech companies & universities bit.ly/47lWpmJ

Thanks @misssaxbys & the @Siftedeu team for the write-up on our journey @PossibleVC. It's a great reminder of some early successes & shines a light on our everyday obsession to uncover & invest in the next paradigm-shifting startups in frontier tech💪🚀 lnkd.in/gYnP4yg5

To things into perspective: All 40 Dax comps are worth just the equivalent of $1.66tn, less than Apple at $3tn or Microsoft at $2.53tn. And the Dax suffers from obsolescence: The average Dax company is 109 years old, the avg S&P 500 company only 42yrs.

If you're an SMB, managing identity and access to SaaS apps is no cakewalk. Oh wait, now it is. Cakewalk's design-first approach is empowering businesses and transforming app control. Join the beta and check it out today! #product" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">getcakewalk.io/#product

Congrats to the team at @BioNumber8 on securing $1.8M in pre-seed funding! We're proud to back such a game-changing mission. Revolutionising feed conversion ratios and reducing methane emissions is the future of sustainable agriculture! 🌱🐄💪

Thrilled to invest in #Aquila, innovators using light-based tech for energy transformation. Exciting step towards an 'Internet of Energy'. Read all about it in Billy's awesome write-up. The future is bright! 🌞🌍🚀 #EnergyTransition

US/China relation setback: In a headline reminiscent of 1962, WSJ is reporting that China will build an electronic eavesdropping facility in Cuba. Beijing will pay cash-strapped Havana several billion dollars for the facility. (via @knowledge_vital) wsj.com/articles/cuba-…

Negative price for electricity in Germany today 😱 Dynamic electricity pricing is the future!

Good Morning from Germany, which is facing difficult demographic times. Old-age dependency ratio has already risen well >30: fewer than 3 people of working age face one person of retirement age. Only in Japan, Italy & Finland is the population even more over-aged. (HT @Tiefseher)

Today the team @solidworldhq launched their CRISP-scored forward carbon liquidity pool, marking a new era in climate finance by opening access to project financing, initially focused on mangrove restoration. More transparency, accessibility, capital & impact for carbon markets!