Philipp Moehring - tiny.vc

Shared some recent thoughts with @drnovac for his excellent @sundaycet newsletter: sundaycet.beehiiv.com/p/insecurity-1

@alys_key The DeepMindem

We need a name for all the DeepMind alumni doing exciting things in the UK tech scene, but calling it the DeepMind Mafia feels a bit unimaginative. Anyone have ideas?

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @samanth_s This reminds me of my absolute favorite ever article: wired.com/1996/12/ffglas…

NEW ODD LOTS: A massively underdiscussed element of the modern economy @tracyalloway and I talk to @samanth_s about the extraordinary complex of undersea cables that keep the internet alive open.spotify.com/episode/724d6A…

@megan_gafford @patrickc @tylercowen Falcon heavy chique

I was recently awarded a New Aesthetics grant from @patrickc and @tylercowen to try to invent a new ornamental style of architecture. I’m going to do this through drawing, because just as writing is thinking, drawing is imagining. You might invent something new when you sit down to solve the problem of what your version of a thing should look like. Link to my full project description below 👇

I think it’s simplistic to paint all small funds with a broad brush and accuse all of them of markup chasing. There are so many different small funds with idiosyncratic strategies, different in each step of the stack. E very single GP is acutely aware of the threats & opportunities they face.

Megafunds created an environment where good exits (particularly IPOs) appear to be more difficult. As a matter of strategy or ignorance, they assign blame for that elsewhere, saying things like "the bar for IPO is so much higher" / "public markets are brutal" / "it's somehow still all Lina Khan's fault". It's all FUD. Now, because exits seem difficult, small seed firms think the smart/easy move is just to cater to megafunds for markups and status. So, they are bound to consensus categories and ambitions for >$50B exits. It's hyper-competitive, with long horizons on liquidity and a high failure rate. The alternative is that they realise a company only really needs >$200M revenue to go public, and $1–5B exits are still an awesome outcome for a small fund. Similarly, leaner companies are a much more attractive target for M&A. As Andreessen said in 2014, "Nobody will want to buy your cash-incinerating startup." Managers that figure this out, who really understand exit markets and can offer founders an informed perspective, will do well. I suppose the rest might live more comfortably in the short-term.

HOT DAMN - @n8n_io has just been valued at $5.2bn in secondary sale led by SAP. It's double what it was valued in October. The company is now doing over €100m ARR As part of the investment SAP is also signing a multiyear deal to embed n8n’s tools inside its AI agent builder, Joule Studio. Amazing news - Europe is COOKING

@andyhelbig Well, do you LIKE IT?

Saturday: Wanted to clean the terrace, thought we’d need a pressure washer, ordered one on Amazon. Sunday: Pressure washer arrived, terrace cleaned, all great. Monday:

@TheStalwart @NoelRock The same goes for the cocktail - an Americano is a Negroni where soda water replaces the gin.

@NoelRock Ok good to hear!

Is “caffè americano” (replicating drip coffee by diluting espresso with water) meant to be something of a subtle dig? It is in fact how I prefer to drink coffee, but am I supposed to be feel a tad embarrassed when I order it? (It’s fine, I can handle it, but I’m just curious)

@marcepntoja I don't see 'seed is screwed' when I look at this at all. Seed rounds tripled over 10ys, As to Ds tripled in 5ys. Agree with lack of IPOs, but the warning sign should be for later stage.

Cambridge Associates published their market outlook back in December of last year and offered a view on venture that urges caution toward seed funds. • Since 2022, more than 4,200 new venture funds have launched in the US, and many are small seed funds under $100 million. • Very large funds over a billion or more still collect most of the money in the market, taking 40% to 60% of total commitments. • The rise in seed funds led to a busy market with more than 5,000 seed-stage rounds each year since 2022. • Of 21 recent VC-backed tech IPOs that they track: the median last 12-month revenue is $537 million, grew 31.4% in the last year, and reached a Rule of 40 of 32.6%. • A seed VC who backs ten to twenty startups a year faces long odds of picking one that reaches this scale. Only 15.5% of seed companies from early 2023 had raised a Series A by early 2025. • Almost all venture returns come from a small group of companies. About 90% of the total value comes from the top 10% of outcomes. You have to be exceptional to play in this game.

If you don’t start weird, you better be incredibly excellent on the most commonly valued things. That means you compete with the whole world. Good luck.

I didn’t even realise the missing cars but the quiet streets were great. Also a hug reason for Tokyo not being super bright at night - which was another welcome difference.

@pjozefak @pkedrosky His newsletter.

@pmoe @pkedrosky Is Paul posting again? I thought he completely stopped posting here.

It is bonkers that one of the major technology companies of our time publishes research in which they try to understand… what their product does? H/t @pkedrosky (who everyone should read). anthropic.com/research/claud…

This can be true, but it doesn't have to be. There are those that back things that are cool today, and those that look for things that will be cool in two to five years. I aspire to the latter, and it is just as messy and unclear as it has been decades years ago.

@ivanburazin @patrickc @daytonaio I thought you had too much inbound, this is definitely not going to help.

@patrickc @daytonaio Appreciate that sir 🫡

Stripe Treasury is growing super quickly! (Also @daytonaio is a very cool product.)

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@andreasklinger @HarryStebbings Not allowed, ROW behaviour.

@HarryStebbings How’s WhatsApp

The best founders I know all text their investors. None of them email them. The relationship will blossom and deepen in a matter of messages.

@kepano I was going to @ you for X but then I reconsidered because I thought it would not be possible. Thank you!

Yes, Obsidian Reader works for X articles and threads using the browser extension. We're also making improvements to the share sheet in Obsidian 1.13 so you'll be able to save more easily directly within the X app.

Not really surprising: in an unregulated market where insider trading is not easily trackable or punished, we should expect shenanigans. I believe none of the 'making markets efficient' in this debate. It's gambling at best and - turns out - asymmetric rug pulling in reality.

Thoughtful observations on the UK by @drnovac. I'm very partial to this due to our set up (my team is in the UK), portfolio (two he mentions) and history (of living in London), and I agree. I hate Brexit (for obvious reasons), at least the typical British pragmatism is dealing with it in refreshing ways. We don't all need to look across the Atlantic for inspiration on how government can (partly!) make sense of current challenges.