humbledore
1.7K posts

humbledore
@humbledoredore
I sing Bink's sake daily
nyan village Katılım Nisan 2021
2.3K Takip Edilen4.6K Takipçiler
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I made the most cinematic pepe anime to ever exist.
You get your absolute cinema from Aiden Guo. Grab your popcorn, enjoy the show.
Film Score and Sound done by Grammy Award Winning Producer @CoryEnemy
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🚨 NEW PREVIEW - #StarTrek: #StarfleetAcademy Episode 3!
Chancellor Ake (Holly Hunter) instructs her cadets on how to get back at the rival War College cadets!
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I’ve shared my thesis on my Telegram regarding it, but in short attention will move to the next shiny object (coins) that will have potential in making money more than the other.
Does that change it fundamentally? No. However it will definitely battletest the community (given that is all it can do in spreading the narrative:the direction of what PSYOPSANIME is going for) in sharing the vision.
One of the only coins who are actually planning to stick around AND continue producing the IRL/politics events in a memetic animated fashion while sharing disclosures and support already. Many want quick gratification (port and number go up) which causes redistribution. That is bullish in terms of you sticking to your own thesis.
There will be an event where you can’t hold anymore and choose to sell. That is OK too! Sell shaming has gotten extremely toxic in which you happen to change your mind after more info: AKA TRADING?? (Lol).
Lots of noise in the mix, just believe what makes sense to you, while accounting risk ofc. Many want to make success stories PnL but never want to stick through a trade longer than a day (let alone 1H like the new multiwallet grapers sub 100k mc , disgusting).
Bring back working for bags and dreamers arc. Hope to see us win in the end, good luck sers
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When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.
I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.
If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.
If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.
While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.
In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.
I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.
Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.
The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.
In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.
In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.
Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.
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Black Friday - Sharing because getting asked what happened. Pengu knows many took hits and some wiped out. Pretty sad to see some reports of suicide. You are not alone.
Process, Accept, Learn and Grow
Not a larp and Pengu backs his conviction with real skin in the game. Bullish AF on $BONK and kept rotating trading profits into dcaing into low leverage position on @HyperliquidX to complement my large spot position
Unfortunately @HyperliquidX took $BONK sub 0.004 while coinbase $BONK never went below 0.012 (equivalent) and at the time of cascade only went to 0.015 (equivalent)
Nearly a 4x delta from perps to spot pricing. Just insane. Never seen this before in all my time in crypto
Many alts including $BONK went down 70-90% in less than 10 minutes. Tried to close the perp position ahead of the liq level but trades repeatedly kept failing
The massive price dislocation mainly happened on asian CEXes (Binance, Bybit) and not on DEXes, yet @HyperliquidX , that doesnt share a pricing oracle, went lower than most. Wouldve not been liquidated on CB or with the DEX pricing
Hearing Binance and @Lighter_xyz are working on solving for their discrepancies with some users. Not sure if @HyperliquidX is doing the same but please let Pengu know if so
Any long exposure, including my sub 2x long (liq sub 0.001), was wiped out before arbed and recovered closer to spot pricing
Reminder that even low leverage that I thought was comfy is still leverage which can result in a zero like it did for Pengu. Unpleasant loss but we move on still in the game
Fortunately, majority of exposure for $BONK and other coins are spot and Pengu lives to fight another day
There are haters who danced in comments and in group chats, celebrating losses of others. Frankly, DGAF about people like this. Like homeless people on the corner that rant and scream nonsense, why would Pengu or you care about opinions of people that we don't care about? Empty vessels make the loudest noise
Probably attract more with this post but sharing anyways in the event others find something positive to walk away with. I'm here to Win and Help Win, even if it means sharing personal losses as lesson for others to benefit from
Bullish on $BONK and will surprise people to the upside when all said and done. Pengu will keep grinding harder now to make sure it happens. Motivated AF
The Dog and Pengu will run it back to new ATHs before cycle end and make for a hell of a story over drinks in the future. The jobs not finished
GOD WILLING


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'the LORD gave, and the LORD hath taken away; blessed be the name of the LORD' — Job 1:21
yesterday's liquidation event is the most brutal i've witnessed in my time in crypto
i got wiped out on ALL my perps positions
literally everything
eight figures: $30 million+ at peak uPnL if realized, or well above $15 million just before the liquidation started
100% of the following perps position got wiped:
- $BONK
- $FARTCOIN
- $POPCAT
- $PNUT
- $CAT
- $APEX
- etc
i lost maybe 80% of my $ASTER position that i used as a collateral on a DeFi lending protocol
i took out the remaining (~$1 million), fully liquidated it and rotated it into $BONK and $4 because i think i get better R/R from both from here on out:
- BONK because i refuse to be a 'bonk guy' without BONK exposure, and i remain convinced in my deca-billion-dollar target for it. i will continue to add more over time, God willing
- $4 because i remain strongly convinced that BNB season continues until the end of this quarter and i think $4 is the most asymmetrical bet to capitalize on that
thankfully the overwhelming majority of my $USELESS coin position is held in spot, so i didn't record significant loss on that — maybe with the exception of mid six figures worth of uPnL i had in perps accounts
i am still resolutely convinced that $USELESS is THE memecoin to watch for outperformance from here on out, that it is a multi-billion-dollar narrative currently trading for pennies on the dollar, and that it will end the cycle being a top 5 memecoin at the barest minimum i.e. certainly has a lot more than 10x upside from here. so i’m glad contagion there was contained for me!
what happened yesterday?
everyone blames the recent Trump-China tariffs, but this isn't the first time we've had that this year
and the Trump tariff comments certainly shouldn't have been responsible for such a massive nukage across almost the entirety of altcoins and memecoins in the space
a lot of altcoins crashed 70 to 99% in minutes, when $BTC and $ETH barely crashed 13%
$ATOM, for example, crashed from $4 to $0.001 on top exchanges like Binance — a 99.9% crash in minutes. no one could have humanly responded to that!
it is also worth noting that this massive altcoin/memecoin crash was EXCLUSIVELY on CEXs. these altcoins did not come close to hitting these levels on spot DEXs, so yesterday's liquidation was almost certainly due to MM/CEX liquidity issues
why it was unprecedented (market mechanics)
many people reported being massively affected, especially since exchange systems broke across the board: stop losses failed, orders didn’t fill, margin couldn’t be added, and platforms became unusable within minutes. the entire liquidation cascade happened so fast that almost no one had time to react, something i don’t think we’ve ever seen at this scale before
i was in front of my screen, took a short break, came back to the screen to see the nasty wick about 10 minutes later, then realized i've been liquidated on EVERYTHING i had in perps
it is the craziest crypto event i have witnessed, ever!
it was worse than COVID, which was a black swan event
you could say whatever you want about this event: you can call it manipulation, unnatural, or whatever else
you would be right tbh
however, whether or not manipulation played a role doesn’t change what i have to do next: as a trader, i am only ultimately concerned about things i can actually control
of course it's easier to point out how it all wasn't my fault and how someone else was responsible, but how does that help me grow as a trader? i win if i make money trading, i lose if i lose money trading. end of!
i'm sure we will be hearing more about exactly what happened yesterday night, which will hopefully help give some people closure
i wish i didn't have to write about this:
this will likely be one of the most viral tweets coming out of this event
many have waited for this moment: 'he is so greedy!'
and there will be an army of people mocking me with 'I TOLD YOU SOs'
but write i must, for a few reasons:
1. a key part of the 'bonk guy' persona and identity i have built is one of utmost transparency around my trades, so others can learn
2. while i lost a fortune in the liquidity wipe event, i have a very diversified basket of alts across perps and spot. i'll be fine; my spot assets are safe. but i think there are people who lost literally everything they have right now that might be having very bad and nasty thoughts, and them seeing a voice like mine at this time just might give them hope
i want to be very clear:
1. i do not need your empathy. i appreciate that some would have the thought, but i do not need people messaging me to empathize with me over this
2. i do not need donations or financial support. it was a massive loss, but i'm okay
i also want to emphasize that i'm in a very good mental state right now, as difficult as that might be for many to believe
i've always been very detached from money and material things, and that makes it easy to cope with situations like this
at the end of the day, my $BONK trade was a trade in which i went from $16k to a peak 8-figure PNL
contrary to what seems to be the most common belief here, it isn't my most impressive trade. if i made it before, i can make it once again!
could i have foreseen exchange systems crashing and nuking the most liquid altcoins and memecoins in the market 70 - 90% in mere minutes before anyone could react? no!
could i have maybe done a few things differently leading up to this event? maybe
however, i am a big believer in focusing on what *could* happen and taking action to get there instead of focusing on what *has* happened
the past is the past, and what has happened has happened
there are a lot of changes i’ll be making to my systems as a result of this: less dependence on leverage, sharper risk management, and a stronger focus on protecting my positions from exchange-side risks going forward
all that matters is what happens from here on out...
i remain very optimistic about the market
i do not believe the bull run is over, nor do i think the Q4 rally is out of the picture
so what do i do from here?
lock in more than ever before, be buried deeper in the trenches, and most importantly have fun while i do it!
if there is one thing i have learned after being in this industry for multiple cycles, it is that there is always new opportunities: every day, every week, every month
i have always been one to love a challenge, and i guess this is another one for me and an opportunity to once again prove myself — not to internet strangers, but to myself
this event has not dampened my spirit, not in the slightest. if anything, it has strengthened my resolve to get back in the ring, fight, and win bigger
i will make it all back, and more!
for those who are in a similar situation, who either lost a fortune or lost it all, i have some words for you:
PERSIST
SURVIVE
DON'T GIVE UP
if you need to take a break, please do
if you're struggling to hold it in, please seek help
above all, pay special attention to yourself and focus on your health
i know it will take a while for the gravity of what happened to hit many, but a philosophy that has always helped me to survive massive drawdowns is internalizing all of these crypto gains as just numbers on the screen — until it is realized at least!
i know they can have very real consequences in the real world if/when cashed out, but right now i think internalizing it as just numbers on the screen would make dealing with the loss more bearable
you made it before, so yes YOU can make it again
the most profitable period of the cycle is still well ahead of us
we are all going to make it
and you are going to have me along on this journey with you, if that matters to you!
if there’s one thing this taught me, it’s that no matter how prepared you think you are, you’re never fully protected from systemic shocks — but you can always control your response. i’ll be rebuilding my framework with that truth in mind!
i am once again an underdog, and this is not the end of my story
GOD WILLING

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BONK
after pulling off a 4x in july and retesting crucial levels in august, i think this is getting ready for the next leg higher
we have a beautiful series of higher highs and higher lows, which is generally bullish and considering the overall sentiment about altcoins, i dont see any reason why this doesn't move higher in the next few weeks
0.00005 has been a pivot and should be our next target, once reclaimed, we enter price discovery but let's take things level to level for now
overall a beautiful chart with nice r:r and good upside potential

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how to play the rest of the cycle, I'd say for people with 5 to 7 figs, anyone under should probably look for alternative income;
time of the cycle where you turn the leverage slider down and reduce the risk [says the guy beating his own perp records every month lol]
we're moving down the risk curve, volatility is returning and last thing you need are -30% alt nukes to wipe you out before god candles
select your winners -> buy them on spot -> sit on your hands and pray you've selected correctly in this disgustingly diluted market
leverage should be used by experts only - use it to hedge spot, eventually being delta neutral at top to capture last runners whilst having downside protection, most importantly to catch larger, quicker moves on majors [eg. ETH, SOL, DOGE in chronological order the last 2 months]
I'd also advise against heavy rotations, especially with lowcaps and Solana trench shitters, if you're good at rotating stick to highcaps [top 20], possibly medcaps [top 50]. rotate only if you're extremely good and it doesn't require you to sell your "winners". use dry powder instead
worst thing you can do is pre-select performers, recognize a narrative, position yourself correctly and then decide to sell & chase some Pumpfun-streamer coin that 'accidentally' gets FSH by a broke 40 year old jew or some dogshit vapor 'utility' coin promoted by your favorite egirl account with botted followers likely managed by her even more broke boyfriend
stick to your thesis, stick to your plan. you can't afford mistakes or deviations from plan this late into the cycle
I firmly believe we get a fruitful period for select altcoins sometime in the next 6 months - timing it is fairly tricky for most of you, hence my suggestion of spot holdings
some narratives I'm seeing in chronological order;
- SOL beta, high/medcaps mostly, onchain lowcaps very tricky and not my domain anyway - 6/10 conviction as half of it has played out already
- Memes, DOGE and the rest of high/medcaps [there's like 4 of them lol] should do well if DOGE continues leading - 6/10 conviction, dilution is a bitch
- ETH beta [ironically SOL is proving to be best ETH beta] in the form of utility plays - RWA is prime sector to benefit from stablecoin, yield and institutional adoption, again only a handful of coins so you have to be fairly retarded not to capture - 8.5/10 conviction, 9.5/10 if ETH breaks 5k firmly
- AI [utility, not agents] maybe super-late in the cycle as one of the last plays, I wouldn't put capital in yet - ?/10
- Chinese coins. don't fade the rotation. hardest coins to trade, never know when pump, tricky - ?/10
if you're half-decent, put some effort in, you can 10x your portfolio by the time house of cards comes collapsing down on everyone
good luck, stomp these markets

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september seasonality, blood moon, ghost month and FOMC
gm
i was away for a while as i was unwell but i am starting to get back to work this week
been hearing some chatter about some stuff, so decided to put down my thoughts about the markets
september seasonality: this is not a meme but has been turned into one because half of the people say it's a consensus, whereas the rest believe in it simply because it's been working out for the past few years. me? i am in the latter category but hey, hear me out!
blood moon: i don't trade moon cycles but i have seen my friends doing it and nailing some major moves. frankly and i'm not gonna lie, i consider it when it suits my bias, lol, so yeah, looking at the past performances after a blood moon, we have found our bottom (hoping for the same this time as well)
ghost month: this one gets misunderstood a lot. it's not strictly august or september but it’s a period and during this time, i've consistently seen pullbacks followed by bottom formations. this is my favorite time of the year because from the past 5-6 years, i have gotten entries that have set me up for Q4 and this year as well, i am expecting something similar, why? simply because it has been working for the past few years and my thesis hasn't been invalidated yet
if you've been following me for some time, you'd know im not a permabear, in fact i rarely bearpost because i hate bears but this is something i stick to (unless invalidated) because it works. this year, ghost month began on 23rd august ~ btc was at 117k and we have been down-only since then. does it mean we have found our bottom? maybe but i am still of the opinion that we retest 1D EMA200, which is currently at 104k, before putting in a bottom. what's my invalidation? a clean reclaim of our jackson hole top i.e 117500 ~ i think if we reclaim this, we are set for new highs but until that happens, im bearish
FOMC: not claiming to be an expert here but after the recent NFP data, it looks like the upcoming NFP could be a pivot point for what the next few months look like
rate cut = bullish
no rate cut = bearish?
pretty basic logic and i don’t know how it’ll play out but I’m genuinely curious to see what happens this time around
also, eth/btc hit my first macro target of 0.04 and i consolidated some position to cash but i still hold a majority of spot. i think we have all the ingredients for it to hit 0.055 in Q4, which is my second target. if/when it happens, i believe some altcoins will outperform bigly, so going forward, my main focus would be on altcoins that have a cult behind them (CEX and onchain)
tl:dr;
> bearish until we reclaim 117500
> if we reclaim, max long to new highs
> Q4 focus should be on selected altcoins
thanks for coming to my TED talk
good luck, have fun and don't get liquidated
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We got the chance to invest in an "actual" business standpoint on a booming industry among and not just limited to ONLY POKEMON cards and many thought it was over at the first correction.
It's easy to chalk up negativity at the lows, but at the highs? No where to be found.
Sheep, think for yourself.
The liquidity floating around since the memecoin dominancy from '24 to now revolves around degenerate traders. This is something the majority are not regularly accustomed to - RWA =/ memecoin.
Will it move as volatile as any other memecoin? If you see the vision as an investor stand point, the vision is clear.
$CARDS may just do that.
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