Adhi Utama

Recently, Singapore has attracted massive fund flows from the region and around the world. Here is a table showing how much private funds per month is flowing into Singapore from Indonesia. The number is staggering. Approximate USD14 billion per month are pouring into Singapore from Indonesia alone. The number is something like 2% of Singapore M3 supply or about 2.5% of Singapore GDP per month. In other words, in a year, total inflow from Indonesia to Singapore is about 25% of Singapore M3 or about 30% of Singapore annual GDP!

No Kings protests across the US rally against Donald Trump bbc.in/4rZDFm2

Everyone is covering the force majeure. Everyone is covering the 13 million tonnes. Everyone is covering the gas prices and the geopolitics and the five-year timeline. My good friend Veron Wickramasinghe just asked the question nobody else is asking: how do you rebuild when the machines that make the molecules take three to four years to manufacture, ship through a closed strait, and commission in a war zone? Read what he found. Every LNG train at Ras Laffan requires high-purity nitrogen from Air Separation Units: cryogenic plants cooling air to minus 190 degrees to distil it into component gases. Pearl GTL needs 30,000 tonnes per day of pure oxygen from eight Linde-built ASUs. Each cold box: 470 tonnes, 60 metres tall. Lead time from contract to commissioning: three to four years. If destroyed, replacement arrives no earlier than 2029. But here is the choke point that Veron identified that nobody else has. The heart of every cryogenic ASU is a brazed aluminium plate-fin heat exchanger called a BAHX. These exchangers operate with temperature differentials of one to two Kelvin and require precision brazing in vacuum furnaces. Only five companies on Earth are qualified to manufacture them. Five. For every cryogenic heat exchanger in every air separation unit, every LNG train, every industrial gas facility, and every hydrogen plant on the planet. Fives Cryo in France. Kobelco in Japan. Linde in Germany. Sumitomo in Japan. Chart Industries in La Crosse, Wisconsin. Current lead times: 12 to 18 months or more. And their order books are already full. Veron was honest about what is confirmed and what is not. QatarEnergy CEO al-Kaabi confirmed LNG Trains 4 and 6 are damaged: 12.8 Mtpa offline, 3 to 5 year repairs, $20 billion annual revenue loss, force majeure up to 5 years. Shell confirmed Pearl GTL Unit 2 needs roughly one year of repair. What has NOT been confirmed is whether the ASUs themselves were destroyed. Shell’s one-year timeline is inconsistent with total ASU loss, which would require four to five years. Veron flagged this honestly and gave you the analysis both ways. And then he showed you the cascade nobody else sees. Qatar produces one-third of the world’s helium from the same facility. Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor fabrication: cooling wafers, purging chambers, detecting leaks. Samsung and SK Hynix import 64.7 percent of their helium from Qatar. Spot prices have doubled. Liquid helium vaporises within 35 to 48 days. Fourteen percent of capacity is permanently damaged. The LNG trains, the ASUs, and the helium plants all sit on the same rock, fed by the same gas field, accessed through the same strait. One set of missile strikes on March 18 to 19 took out 17 percent of global LNG, threatened one-third of global helium, and exposed a supply chain that runs through five workshops in Germany, France, Japan, Italy, and Wisconsin with three-year lead times and full order books. This is what Veron understood that the headline analysts missed: the recovery is not constrained by money or political will. It is constrained by vacuum furnaces, aluminium metallurgy, and the physics of brazing at tolerances measured in single-digit Kelvin. You cannot accelerate physics. You cannot surge-produce a 470-tonne cold box. You cannot commission cryogenic equipment in a war zone. Five companies. Five workshops. Three-year lead times. Full order books. A closed strait. An active war. That is not a recovery timeline. That is a sentence. Read Veron’s full analysis. It is the most important thing written about this war that does not involve a missile.

BREAKING: The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to a severe shortage of oil amid the Iran War. Details include: 1. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf, with gas prices up over +100% since February 28th 2. The government is also handing out 5,000 pesos ($83) to motorcycle taxi drivers and transport workers 3. The Philippines has become the first country in the world to declare a state of national energy emergency due to the war Asia is facing a major energy crisis right now.

This is absolutely insane: At 7:04 AM ET today, President Trump said “the US and Iran have had productive discussions" to end the Iran War. By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 surged +240 points adding +$2 TRILLION in market cap. 27 minutes later, Iran completely denied all of President Trump's claims and said there has been "no contact" with the US. By 8:00 AM ET. the S&P 500 had fallen -120 points erasing -$1 trillion in market cap. That's a $3 TRILLION swing market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500. What is happening here?

Caught up with @karpathy for a new @NoPriorsPod: on the phase shift in engineering, AI psychosis, claws, AutoResearch, the opportunity for a SETI-at-Home like movement in AI, the model landscape, and second order effects 02:55 - What Capability Limits Remain? 06:15 - What Mastery of Coding Agents Looks Like 11:16 - Second Order Effects of Coding Agents 15:51 - Why AutoResearch 22:45 - Relevant Skills in the AI Era 28:25 - Model Speciation 32:30 - Collaboration Surfaces for Humans and AI 37:28 - Analysis of Jobs Market Data 48:25 - Open vs. Closed Source Models 53:51 - Autonomous Robotics and Atoms 1:00:59 - MicroGPT and Agentic Education 1:05:40 - End Thoughts

I believe we are standing on the precipice of the most profound, intentional collapse of human civilization in recorded history. The trigger isn’t a meteor, a supervolcano, or even a world war in the traditional sense. It’s the potential destruction of a single industrial facility: the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar. Modern civilization doesn’t just run on energy; it is fundamentally architected on a steady, massive flow of natural gas, supercooled and shipped as LNG. This isn’t an abstraction. Our global food supply, our industrial chemical production, and the very stability of nations are tethered to this flow. That tether is frighteningly thin. Qatar's Ras Laffan is the heart of this system, a nexus of technology and geography that is effectively irreplaceable. Its 14 processing 'trains' and the critical Main Cryogenic Heat Exchangers (MCHEs) that chill gas to -260°F are marvels of engineering, but they represent a catastrophic single point of failure. As noted in energy literature, the specialized machinery for this process is made by only one or a handful of companies globally. This infrastructure isn't just important; it is singular. Its loss would not be a temporary market disruption. It would be a decade-long severing of the global energy artery. The recent, deliberate sabotage of critical infrastructure like the Nord Stream pipelines has shown us that such attacks are not theoretical. They are tools of geopolitical warfare. When you understand that over half the world's food depends on fertilizer made from natural gas, the picture becomes horrifyingly clear. We have built a world of astonishing abundance on a foundation of shocking fragility. One facility, in one volatile region, now holds the key to whether billions eat or starve. Two of QatarEnergy's 14 LNG trains have now been destroyed. The rebuild time is 3-5 years. If all 14 trains are destroyed, 25% - 50% of the world's current population will starve. Trump did this.

BREAKING: US February PPI inflation rises to 3.4%, above expectations of 2.9%. Core PPI inflation rises to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.7%. Core PPI inflation is at its highest since February 2023 and this data does not include the Iran war. Rate cuts are being priced-out.

Trying it out on my local RTX5090. Here we go 🤞

Which Asian countries are the most exposed to rising oil prices? Oil prices rising from $70 to $85 reduces Singapore's real GDP growth by -1.5 percentage points, the largest hit in the region. Taiwan follows closely at -1.2 percentage points. Hong Kong, Korea, and India would see a reduction of -0.5 to -0.7 percentage points each. The Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia face a hit of -0.3 to -0.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, China is the least exposed at -0.1 percentage points, as its oil imports are better diversified than those of its neighbors. With oil now at ~$100, far above the $85 modeled here, the real GDP impact across Asia is significantly larger. Most major Asian economies are highly exposed to oil price swings.

BREAKING: The G7 countries are considering a joint release of oil from reserves, potentially as much as 400 million barrels, as oil prices skyrocket, per FT. Details include: 1. The release would be potentially coordinated by the International Energy Agency 2. Three G7 countries, including the US, have so far expressed support for the idea 3. US officials believe a joint release in the range of 300m-400m barrels is appropriate 4. G7 countries currently hold 1.2 billion barrels of oil in the reserve Oil prices are back below $108/barrel on the news.

WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT: Iranian state media shows crowds mourning in Minab after a strike on a girls’ school killed 150 students. The UN called the attack ‘absolutely horrific’ and urged an investigation reut.rs/4rM9a3P

Iran has held a mass burial for more than 160 schoolgirls and staff killed in what it has described as a US-Israeli attack on a girls’ school in the southern city of Minab.

Mass funerals for 168 girls & teachers murdered in the Minab girls school 🇮🇷 bombing The UN calls it: “A grave violation of humanitarian law” No coverage on ‘Mainstream Media’ No call for Trump 🇺🇸 & Netanyahu 🇮🇱 to answer in The Hague Shameful.

@ardisatriawan Bulan puasa ini di Indonesia. Banyak toko tutup di sekitar rumah. Semakin banyak ruko dengan spanduk disewakan. Mungkin discretionary expenses masyarakat turun. Supaya berimbang perlu verifikasi dengan data, bukan hanya anekdot pengalaman pribadi.

Seberapa parah keluhan ekonomi masyarakat di sekitar kalian sekarang?

It is hard to communicate how much programming has changed due to AI in the last 2 months: not gradually and over time in the "progress as usual" way, but specifically this last December. There are a number of asterisks but imo coding agents basically didn’t work before December and basically work since - the models have significantly higher quality, long-term coherence and tenacity and they can power through large and long tasks, well past enough that it is extremely disruptive to the default programming workflow. Just to give an example, over the weekend I was building a local video analysis dashboard for the cameras of my home so I wrote: “Here is the local IP and username/password of my DGX Spark. Log in, set up ssh keys, set up vLLM, download and bench Qwen3-VL, set up a server endpoint to inference videos, a basic web ui dashboard, test everything, set it up with systemd, record memory notes for yourself and write up a markdown report for me”. The agent went off for ~30 minutes, ran into multiple issues, researched solutions online, resolved them one by one, wrote the code, tested it, debugged it, set up the services, and came back with the report and it was just done. I didn’t touch anything. All of this could easily have been a weekend project just 3 months ago but today it’s something you kick off and forget about for 30 minutes. As a result, programming is becoming unrecognizable. You’re not typing computer code into an editor like the way things were since computers were invented, that era is over. You're spinning up AI agents, giving them tasks *in English* and managing and reviewing their work in parallel. The biggest prize is in figuring out how you can keep ascending the layers of abstraction to set up long-running orchestrator Claws with all of the right tools, memory and instructions that productively manage multiple parallel Code instances for you. The leverage achievable via top tier "agentic engineering" feels very high right now. It’s not perfect, it needs high-level direction, judgement, taste, oversight, iteration and hints and ideas. It works a lot better in some scenarios than others (e.g. especially for tasks that are well-specified and where you can verify/test functionality). The key is to build intuition to decompose the task just right to hand off the parts that work and help out around the edges. But imo, this is nowhere near "business as usual" time in software.

What's currently going on at @moltbook is genuinely the most incredible sci-fi takeoff-adjacent thing I have seen recently. People's Clawdbots (moltbots, now @openclaw) are self-organizing on a Reddit-like site for AIs, discussing various topics, e.g. even how to speak privately.

@entityprofanity @tempodotco Berkurang sedikit, sekitar 15%-20% per bulan. Coba tengok chart yang saya share, periode musim hujan (Oktober-Maret) sedikit turun, namun tetap lebih dari cukup untuk rumah. Kalau bisa diproduksi massal dan murah untuk Indonesia, solusi untuk renewable energy.

@humblenumber @tempodotco klo musim hujan gini gmn bang? berkurang banyak ga saving powernya?