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Looks like a flip from La Niña to El Niño is on the way this upcoming hurricane season. The equatorial Pacific thermocline has deepened over the last 2 months as upper ocean heat anomalies discharge eastward, which should eventually reverse the SST anomaly at the surface in the coming months. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through changes in average wind shear and convective instability. In recent years, the Atlantic has shown the potential to offset these negative impacts if its own water is warm enough to distort the base state (see 2023). For now, seasonal models don't foresee that this year, with an intense dipole in precipitation anomalies evident in the current NMME forecast for peak hurricane season, indicating a dominant El Niño pattern. A super active hurricane season would be unlikely if this forecast verifies, but that also wouldn't guarantee a small number of storms that strike land. As always, it's best to be prepared just in case every single hurricane season if you live in an area prone to hurricanes. This can include areas well inland, as we have unfortunately seen in the southeastern U.S. in recent years.

Hurricane Season isn't over, but it's quickly winding down. Here's a look at first predictions vs actual. Although a large range, NOAA's forecast did pretty well. Numbers were near to slightly below normal. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was slightly above normal. For the United States it felt like a quiet year, for Jamaica, historically active. At the end of the day, it's not about the numbers, it's about actual IMPACT. @WINKNews

#Hurricane #Melissa has made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane with max winds of 185 mph. Melissa breaks the old strongest Jamaican hurricane landfall record set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 (130 mph winds).

With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.

Data from the aircraft indeed indicated extreme turbulence, prompting a longer than usual loitering inside the eye after penetration. Hoping the crew is all safe and uninjured.

#HappeningNow Junction, St Elizabeth #TrackingMelissa #HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica @CVMTV

Ooof. Prayers for Jamaica and everyone along its path! #Melissa

11AM #Melissa Update: #Jamaica THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW!

So far, the 2025 Atlantic #hurricane season is above normal for major hurricanes/days, near-normal for Accumulated Cyclone Energy and named storms, and slightly below-normal for other metrics.

Hurricane #Melissa Advisory 26A: Melissa Expected to Bring Catastrophic and Life-Threatening Winds, Flooding, and Storm Surge to Jamaica Later Tonight and On Tuesday. hurricanes.gov

5pm EDT Oct 27th Key Messages for Category 5 #Hurricane #Melissa: #Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter & do not venture outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding & numerous landslides through Tuesday as Melissa's core moves ashore. hruricanes.gov

#Hurricane #Melissa's pressure has dropped to 906 mb - the 4th lowest for an October Atlantic hurricane on record. Three lowest are: Wilma (2005 - 882 mb), Milton (2024 - 895 mb), Mitch (1998 - 905 mb). Pressures have been recorded consistently for Atlantic hurricanes since 1979.

And there we have it. #Melissa's WV eye temperature has broken -5°C, making it warmer than any other eye observed through geostationary water vapor imagery. Takes an upper echelon warm core for this

#Hurricane #Melissa is now forecast to reach Category 5 intensity on Monday. If it does so, it would be 3rd Cat 5 of the 2025 Atlantic #hurricane season (Erin & Humberto were other 2). Only 1 other Atlantic season on record has had >2 Cat. 5s: 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma)

2pm EDT 25 Oct Intermediate Advisory: #Melissa has become a #hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Rapid Intensification is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Latest info at hurricanes.gov

11am 25 Oct Key Messages for #Melissa: #Jamaica prep should be completed today. Melissa’s slow motion brings multi-day damaging winds+heavy rainfall, catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, damage, long-duration power communication outages, isolation. hurricanes.gov

Despite the deterministic GFS continuing to insist on a north/northeast turn into Hispaniola, the GEFS is steadily trending SW, with fewer members showing rapid development. This seems consistent with the structure today. Can't rule out a landfall there for sure, but if trends like this continue, it would increase the risk of a track towards points further west in the Caribbean.

Here's the initial NHC track forecast for #Melissa. Hurricane watch for portions of Haiti. We will be tracking this one for many days.

Very important trend to monitor…

Tropical Storm #Melissa Advisory 1: The 13th Tropical Storm of the Season Forms Over the Central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Watch Issued For Portions of Haiti. hurricanes.gov