Oppy 🦾🫶
4.5K posts
Oppy 🦾🫶
@hz2ll6
Full Time Observer. Occasionally make opinionated comments about market.
Here Katılım Kasım 2021
1.1K Takip Edilen139 Takipçiler
still in awe of what elon said on dwarkesh. that in 5yrs spacex will launch 10000x per year and send more ai compute to space every single year than the entire total compute that exists on earth today
obv it’s elon and u have to multiply his timeline by 3. but in 2040 spacex could become the biggest hyperscaler in the world and be worth $10-100t (order of mag).
the merger with xai makes complete sense now.
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on the “software is dead” narrative:
my intuition is that ai makes strong software companies stronger and weak software companies weaker. this is because the moat of strong software companies was never software, but rather distribution, proprietary data, workflow integration, enterprise lockin, network effects, trust and compliance, etc. whereas the moat of weak software companies was just… software.
example of strong companies: msft
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my wife runs a stock account and posted a cagr of 70% over the last 3 years. granted it was a bull market, but she never bought anything fancy. just the good old tsm, nvda, goog, lly, etc. she outperformed me by like 40% per year. but the annoying thing is she told me all her trade ideas came from me. the only difference between us is she held everything and i sold too early.
im rethinking my life now.
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You have been warned, again.
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff
King dollar’s reign is coming to an end. Gold will take the throne as the primary central bank reserve asset. That means the U.S. dollar will crash against other fiat currencies, and America’s free ride on the global gravy train will end. Prepare for a historic economic collapse.
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I looked into ivf ~7yrs ago. the process was confusing, expensive, and emotionally painful. 7yrs passed and i talked to some friends and it looks like nothing has changed — the whole ivf industry is still as awful it was 7yrs ago. this seem like a huge unsolved problem both at the individual level and at the civilizational level (population collapse) and i can’t believe more ppl aren’t working on it.
(would fund / work with startups tackling this)
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Oppy 🦾🫶 retweetledi
At some point with enough regulation producing fines, it borders on looting.
You can have more fines from over-regulation, or you can have a growing economy, but you can't have both.
david fant@da_fant
EU makes more from fines on US tech, than tax from ALL of public European tech in 2024 EU fined US tech companies €3.8B meanwhile public internet tech companies paid only €3.2B in income tax
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@fejau_inc @PharsaLOL That could literally mean tank the real estate market with supply, which underway. Reindustralization need bigger buyer and decades
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Idk why you’re comparing to turkey that makes no sense.
Canada has stagnated for a decade as seen in charts below and floated the economy through hyperfinancialization of the real estate sector making housing unaffordable vs income growth.
The bet to make here is I think it’s time for these things to recouple
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hey @fejau_inc i dont know Canada as well as you do and i have never lived there but i follow global markets and economy
yo mentioned real estate ponzi and immigration driven growth in your country.(i couldnt help but laugh while reading it)
bcz this topic sounds familiar from somewhere :))
Real estate Ponzi is a system that states have to create
Think of it this way.. yo are running a country and there are very rich people around you and they all want something from you...
you give them the real estate sector....
i think you understand the answer
Canada receives an average of %0.8 percent of its population as immigrants annually
when i look at the average of the last 10 years countrys migration rate is slightly above normal.(but there is no exaggeration)
yo also have a country that is quite free and whose currency does not lose value.
frankly i dont fully understand what exactly you criticize in your country or where you think they hav gone wrong and yet you still say you trust your country
your country is already well governed and in good shape
this is the exchange rate of your and my countrys currencies
if you want to see the facts you can examine my country
fejau@fejau_inc
Mentioned this on the @ForwardGuidance roundup today, but I'm super bullish on my great nation of Canada. Carney is finally unlocking natural resources again after a decade of just real estate ponzi and immigration driven growth and moving towards unlocking our competitive edges again. Think a lot of capital is sidelined and views Carney of a continuation of Trudeau policy but imo couldn't be further from the truth. Ten years ago he would have been a conservative leader. It's just cons have gone to the right and libs to the left. Then you add on top how offside markets have been due to recent negative econ data that is rebounding significantly now.
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