igooner
480 posts
Oil is down 10 dollars from the high, looking for a reason, cant find anything concrete.
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Is the edit history of a tweet more important than a) its content), b) any attempt to actually end this destructive, pointless war? Many here seem to have lost their damn minds.
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@PseudoEconomist Shouldn't that already have happened based on secondary market pricing if these assets are marked to market?
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➡️ A material erosion in book value via Other Comprehensive Income (OCI)
UBL currently has a revaluation surplus on assets of Rs 173bn (Dec-25)
A 100bps rate hike can wipe out:
👉 ~58% of that surplus
That’s a massive buffer compression.
2/2
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1% move in interest rates isn’t just macro noise — it has real balance sheet consequences for banks🏦 👇
1% increase in interest rates can lead to Rs100bn hit to OCI for UBL .
Yes — PKR 100bn.
To put that into perspective:
➡️ This is ~20% of UBL’s equity
1/2
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@Merridew__ Why though? It's just one day -- would make sense to say something Sunday evening..
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@najam_ali @AlaliQasem Oilprice.com may be wrong here. All other sources are quoting June as the front contract for brent: barchart.com/futures/quotes…
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@najam_ali @AlaliQasem Instead of doubling down please check again Najam sb. There are multiple sources suggesting that you're mistaken on this. x.com/JavierBlas/sta…
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
As some of you are asking: Brent (physical) trading prompt delivery: >$125 a barrel WTI (paper) trading **May** futures: $112 a barrel Brent (paper) trading **June** futures: $109 a barrel (Again: WTI futures front-month is *May*; but Brent futures front-month is now *June*)
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@TMTLongShort And who will be subsidizing the diff between market-clearing price and what east asians economies get
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If I am right Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will receive preferential access to U.S. LNG exports in the coming days to the detriment of Europe instead of energy just following a market-clearing price.
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This by Rheinmetall CEO is precisely the arrogance that will come to haunt 🇩🇪.
It was arrogance vis-à-vis Chinese competitors that helped bring German carmakers in the ditch they are in.
And it‘s this type of arrogance vis-à-vis lessons learned by Ukrainians that will cost us.
Simon Shuster@shustry
I asked Europe's main producer of tanks and artillery what he thinks about the cheap drones wrecking all those tanks and artillery pieces in Ukraine. "This is not innovation," he said of the Ukrainian weapons. "This is how to play with Legos." An exclusive interview with Armin Papperger in my profile of his company, @RheinmetallAG, whose stock price has grown 15-fold since the Russian invasion, as the Europeans buy up all the tanks and artillery he can produce. Out today @TheAtlantic. Gift link below.
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@moeedahmed @Invest_Kardo Bhai thori maths hi seekh lo. It’s not down 60%
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Habibi, come to Dubai and watch your illicit wealth disappear. This decline was a table pounder. There is always room for another 50% decline from the remaining 40%. Habibi sell.. sell
Casey Donaldson@caseyjdonaldson
🚨DUBAI REAL ESTATE DOWN 60%
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Now I am curious: which well-known people (currently alive) you think are close to 0.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb@nntaleb
On a bullshit scale of 0-10, where 0 is maximally rigorous and 10 is maximally bullshitter, Sam Harris stands close to 10.
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$META bear argument (chronological edition):
1) Zuckerberg clearly overcommitted to capex
2) Wait, revenue was up 22% last year?
3) That's clearly just a heavier ad load -- no need for me to investigate this further
4) LALALLAA I CANT HEAR YOU WITH MY FINGERS IN MY EARS
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Good article summarizing China’s plausible positions on Iran.
- Energy security and undisrupted flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are top priority for China
- China feels no particular loyalty to current regime and is happy to work with whoever that comes next, believing Iranian oil supply wouldn’t disappear;
- China sees current regime to be a bunch of incompetent, corrupt, cowardly losers;
- If current regime puts up a valiant protracted fight and looks likely to survive, China will feel compelled to soft support it in order to maintain good relations.
All in all, China prioritizes having a good working relationship with whoever comes next in Iran. It’s maybe not unrealistic if we observe China’s relationships with govts of other countries that have experienced direct U.S. regime change interventions.
Foreign Affairs@ForeignAffairs
“Pessimism about Iran’s fate is now baked into Chinese assessments of the Middle East,” writes Yun Sun. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change.” foreignaffairs.com/china/why-chin…
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@Nabeel1124 @MianShoaibA @motasim @FBRSpokesperson @suneelmunj How are they back? There is still the restrictionnon not being able to transfer car on a new name for 12 months?
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Car imports are back. Huge thanks to overseas Pakistanis for pushing this and also government for realising the importance of remittances and FBR revenue shortfall.
Lastly huge thanks to @MianShoaibA sb for fighting against the mafias
@motasim @FBRSpokesperson @suneelmunj @Huk06 @waqas03 @MShaafNajib14 @Financegovpk
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@Merridew__ What people are trying to ask is: previous instances of such violent volatility in Oil due to large/potentially permanent disruptions have lead to significant volatility in equities — what’s different this time?
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@bytesizedsignal @pernasresearch What market data API are you using or this?
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@pernasresearch Built a platform to create my own factor baskets. Also pulls in related news and builds me a newsletter on my holdings and any news that impacts my theses. Image is just the main page.
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Anyone built anything cool with Claude yet?
Couple tools we have made:
8k context screener
Trade Journal scraper
In total > 10k lines of code and took a couple of days to make.
Curious what everyone else is making.
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@CapexAndChill Does this then mean that unlike in gaming, APP enjoys no such competitive advantage in ecommerce?
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$APP just posted ~70% YoY revenue growth and $4.5B in EBITDA but it is more than just an AI story. AppLovin is executing he most sophisticated legal arbitrage in the history of mobile tech. While the entire ad industry was fuming about $APPL's privacy changes and the death of IDFA AppLovin didn't just build a better algorithm they built a legal and technical bunker with MAX.
Here is the backstory. Apple bans 3P tracking which is defined as linking user data across different companies but AppLovin acquired the mediation layer MAX which sits inside the publisher’s app as core infrastructure. Because they own the code that runs the ad auction they legally reclassified themselves from a 3P tracker to a 1P service provider. This allows them to siphon granular user data from the app directly to their bidder via local device memory bypassing the OS level network interception that Apple uses to police tracking.
They call this internal syncing rather than cross app tracking and it gives them a key view in ~1B daily users. They further fortified this by forcing publishers into a joint controller status where the publisher takes the liability for collecting consent while AppLovin gets the data access.
Management goes on earnings calls and credits their Axon AI for the 84% net income growth and they aren’t lying but the AI is mainly winning because it is the only model being fed a firehose of high fidelity data that is supposed to be not possible to access.
AppLovin has evolved from just an ad network to a walled garden built inside Apple’s own backyard and unless Apple decides to break the entire programmatic economy by blocking SDK to SDK memory communication this money printer is structural.
CapexAndChill@CapexAndChill
$APP's ~20% sell off reflects a fear of commoditization, yet investors are completely ignoring that the company’s Q1 guidance for sequential growth is still strong. Q1 is typically the weakest quarter where ad spend contracts, so guiding for a raise to $1.745 billion confirms that the growth engine is showing incredible resilience from gaming cycles. This disconnect is even more glaring by the fact that the ecom solution driving these numbers is still effectively in a closed beta referral only pilot phase with less than 1% market penetration. So the current 66% revenue growth is being achieved has not seen the effects of the general availability later this year. The new moat they are building is the generative creative capability that solves one of the biggest bottlenecks for non-gaming advertisers which is the inability to produce high performance video assets at scale. AppLovin is working on automating the role of an ad agency and unlocks a long tail of millions of SMB merchants who previously couldn't access mobile inventory. This is a rare dislocation where the market is selling peak gaming while the company is executing the initial phase of automated commerce. AppLovin's own cash flow will aggressively create a valuation flow via buybacks and continued execution.
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@MiftahIsmail CoD broke this cycle, until IK started it again. To break the cycle, everyone needs to admit their mistakes. I don't think IK or PTI are ready to do that.
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A lot of friends from PMLN and others on social media are posting old clips of Imran Khan where is seen enjoying his adversaries’ predicaments. These clips are then used to justify the current ill treatment of Imran Khan and his reported loss of sight in one eye.
Not one of us is a paragon of virtue nor pure evil. We all have some good qualities and some unworthy qualities.
Decency and morality in politics and life is not to exhibit cruelty and meanness towards your adversaries when you are in power but to show grace and kindness.
Celebrating or justifying what is happening to Imran Khan today is paradoxically justifying what Imran Khan did to his adversaries (including me).
We need to break this cycle of meanness and cruelty. Remember an eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind.
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