Cole Smith, Pharm.D, BCPS

Trump: We have sooo much gas under my leadership

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase -$550 billion in market cap in 25 minutes as President Trump delivers his address to the nation on the Iran War.

Markets down 9%, Jumps 4% on fake news, And suddenly everyone’s calling for new highs again. Sentiment has never flipped this fast. Humans are a very interesting species. It’s about to get real funny.

4 days ago I asked why someone would go long $12.3B in SPX risk reversals. Here's a full quantitative review of where we stand this morning. It's not good. 🧵

Update on Flight Attendant… She was sitting in her jump seat directly behind the cockpit when Air Canada Express Flight 8646 collided with a fire truck on Runway 4 at LaGuardia Airport. On impact, Solange Tremblay, the senior flight attendant on board, was ejected more than 320 feet from the wreckage. She was found on the tarmac, still strapped to her seat. She was conscious for all of it. Her daughter Sarah Lépine called it "a total miracle." Aviation safety experts agreed, saying her survival was extraordinary given the complete destruction of the cockpit just feet from where she was sitting. Her four-point harness jump seat, designed to withstand extreme crash loads, likely saved her life. But Solange's fight is far from over. Her injuries are severe: two shattered legs with open fractures requiring multiple surgeries and metal plates, a fractured spine, skin grafts needed for the flesh she lost sliding across the tarmac, and complications that led to a blood transfusion. She still faces several more surgeries and intensive rehabilitation to learn how to walk again. Her daughter and cousin have set up a GoFundMe to help the family. The funds will allow Sarah and Solange's husband Denis to take time off work to be by her side as she recovers in a New York hospital for the foreseeable future. "My mother dedicated her entire life as a flight attendant and was very proud of her work," Sarah wrote. "Right now, my mom needs your help.”

War = priced in Oil price spike = priced in Higher inflation = priced in Ceasefire = not priced in No ceasefire = priced in Fed rate hike = probably priced in Fed rate cut = not priced in

The air traffic controller cleared the fire truck onto the runway. Seconds later, the same controller screamed “stop, stop, stop.” The plane was doing 93 to 105 mph. Both pilots are dead. Everyone will frame this as controller error. One controller was simultaneously managing a United flight that aborted takeoff after an anti-ice warning, dispatching a fire truck across an active runway, and sequencing an inbound Air Canada landing at highway speed. At 11:40 PM. On a mandatory overtime shift at a facility that has been understaffed for years. A system that assigns one person that workload will produce exactly this outcome. The only variable is when. The FAA is short approximately 3,000 controllers. The headcount dropped 13% from 2010 to 2024 while flight volume rose 10%. Over 40% of the FAA’s 290 terminal facilities are understaffed. The New York TRACON, which manages the most congested airspace in America across LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark, has been chronically below target. Newark was operating at 59% of its staffing goal. LaGuardia handles 900 flights a day. The hiring pipeline is broken at every stage. Only 2% of applicants complete the full process. Training takes up to 6 years. The FAA Academy in Oklahoma City is a bottleneck, with roughly 35% of trainees washing out. Congress blocked legislation to build a second academy. In one recent hiring cycle, the FAA brought on 1,512 candidates and lost 1,300 in the same window. Net gain: around 160 controllers for an entire country. Three things need to happen and everyone who can make them happen has known for years. Congress needs to fund and authorize a second FAA training academy. One facility in Oklahoma City cannot produce enough controllers for 900 million annual passengers. Members of Congress from Oklahoma have actively blocked this. That needs to end yesterday. The FAA needs to cut certification time. Six years from application to fully certified controller is absurd. The agency’s own data shows tower simulators reduce certification time by 27%. They’ve installed them at 95 facilities. That should be every facility, and the simulated hours should count toward more of the certification requirement. The FAA needs to stop plugging staffing gaps with mandatory overtime. Controllers at understaffed facilities are working six-day weeks rotating between morning, mid, and night shifts. The NTSB has flagged fatigue repeatedly. The controller last night was managing overlapping emergencies during a nighttime operation. Overtime is not a staffing plan. It’s a countdown to the next runway collision. The controller said “I messed up” to a Frontier pilot who watched the whole thing. The pilot responded “No man, you did the best you could.” One of them is right. The answer determines whether this happens again.