豆栽培者ファビアン

$CRDO will make me a millionaire.

Worse than I thought This will have massive ripple effects in the semiconductor sector Basically, if the company doesn't derive a large chunk of its revenue from AI/AI adjacent semis, then it's going to take a major hit It will have negative effects on OSATs and any semiconductor or semiconductor adjacent company that has high exposure to consumer electronics

Chatted with a buddy from Qualcomm earlier. They're slashing mid-range Snapdragon production hard, some yearly projections down as much as 30%. Memory prices are absolutely nuts right now and crushing demand in the mid-tier phone segment. Visibility into the next year doesn't look great either. $QCOM

There isn't a single Lebanese citizen, 8 March, 14 March, independent who would entertain saying "I would kill 17 million Lebanese". It's only them.

بخصوص سرديّة أنّ إسرائيل تتحرّك لبناء "إسرائيل الكبرى"، أي كيان ممتدّ من النيل إلى الفرات: إسرائيل انسحبت من سيناء عام ١٩٨٢؛ ومن جنوب لبنان عام ٢٠٠٠؛ ومن غزّة عام ٢٠٠٥. لو كان دافعها "إسرائيل الكبرى" لما انسحبت.

MAJOR CASUALTY COVER-UP BY HEGSETH ALMOST 750 US TROOPS KILLED/WOUNDED — The Intercept

JUST IN: Germany now requires all men aged 17-45 to get permission from the military before leaving the country for more than 3 months.

My father was Lebanon’s ambassador to the US when Israel unilaterally withdrew in May 2000. Prior to his post as Syrian foreign minister, Walid Mouallem was then-Syria’s ambassador in Washington, DC and he used to visit the Lebanese embassy almost every night in the weeks prior to May 24-25, worried the Israelis were leaving. His concern was not just Syria’s position through occupation but Hezbollah’s weapons, fearing Israel’s exit would come back to haunt them. Shebaa & every other justification came thereafter. It started with several disputes on the Blue Line that could easily be solved through the UN. After Syria quit Lebanon it turned into a Tafkiri threat. With Hamas in the crosshairs it morphed into a unified arena front for Gaza. When Hassan Nasrallah was killed & Bashar al Assad fled there was no one left but Ali Khamenei. And now, with his killing, it’s transformed into the most existential of reasons: Greater Israel. False narratives get us nowhere. Hezbollah fought to keep the Assad regime from falling & is doing the same for the IRGC & Iran. It killed local opponents that challenged their position & deliberately brought the Israelis back to Lebanon. Not to settle our land or to steal our water, & not for any centuries-old Zionist text. But to force them to reestablish the buffer zone they abandoned. Religitimizing armed resistance & maintaining Lebanon as a battefield. A condition designed for the likes of Walid Mouallem.

Claude Monet in his studio and Water Lilies at MoMA NY

Ashton Kutcher after his $30 million bet into OpenAI is now up 43x to $1.3 Billion

US ground invasion by end of month rose to 85% on polymarket something is happening

morethanmoore.substack.com/p/dylan-patels… I wrote an article on this now I've done a bit more research. Semianalysis has filed a counterclaim for defamation and breach of contract, stating Zhou's personal conduct was the reason for his termination.

@citrini @zephyr_z9 I have a feeling you have a Lebanese guy in your team

Couple higher conviction views of informed parties in the Gulf: 1) The US will launch a ground operation within the next week or so, as evidenced by much higher troop numbers than reported in the UAE with numbers recently accelerating. 2) Even considering the above, traffic through the Strait will continue to rise. Gradually and dependent on developments, but it will not go back to being fully closed as it was before the Larak channel opened up. Countries will continue making deals. 3) Hormuz fried chicken is 5/5 stars.

The Jim Cramer effect. You can't make this shit up! @dylan522p

$30 million -> $1.3 BILLION. 3 years. Ashton Kutcher is the greatest investor of all time.

@KairosPraxis Amen!

Bullish for $CRDO as they ramp up their 800G ZF optical transceivers - Already have 3 large customers. Guided for optics to be a bigger share of rev this year. - Laser supply guaranteed until 2027 - Transceivers are commoditized, $CRDO's telemetry data gives an edge

Optical Interconnects — From Supporting Role to Primary Scaling Constraint The semiconductor investing community is increasingly treating optical connectivity not as a commodity layer but as the binding constraint on AI infrastructure scale. The debate has shifted from "will optics matter?" to "which players have the differentiation to survive commoditization?" @TheValueist — $LITE $COHR $CIEN $AAOI: "Across the LightCounting materials, the common thesis is that optical connectivity has moved from a supporting component to a primary scaling constraint inside AI infrastructure. LightCounting estimates total sales of optical..." x.com/TheValueist/st… @KairosPraxis — "Bullish for $CRDO as they ramp up their 800G ZF optical transceivers. Already have 3 large customers. Guided for optics to be a bigger share of rev this year. Laser supply guaranteed until 2027. Transceivers are commoditized, $CRDO's telemetry data gives an edge." x.com/KairosPraxis/s… @yianisz — "$AAOI keeps stacking orders. Another $71M 800G deal, now $124M in just a few weeks from the same hyperscaler and backlog more than doubling. This is exactly what the market missed during the dilution panic. Orders are accelerating faster than sentiment." x.com/yianisz/status… @cruxcapital — "$AAOI With another 800G order! $71M! I guess any concerns from Lightcounting about 800G becoming generally oversupplied in 2026 isn't impacting AOI at this time. And in this update they also said they shipped 10,000 units of 800G to another hyperscaler. Execution." x.com/crux_capital_/… @zephyr_z9 — "I think we are on the cusp of another huge telecom buildout. As AI workloads shift from training (happens in a single DC campus) to inference (data moves between DC & users), traffic will explode." x.com/zephyr_z9/stat… Gist: Informed voices are drawing a distinction between optical transceiver commodity exposure ($AAOI strong execution on 800G orders despite supply concern) and differentiated optical connectivity plays ($CRDO's ZF optics + telemetry software moat). The emerging thesis: the inference era will drive a new telecom-scale buildout as AI traffic flows from concentrated training clusters toward distributed user endpoints — expanding the addressable optical market well beyond the data center interconnect layer where attention is currently focused.

Most tech companies break out product management and product marketing into two separate roles: Product management defines the product and gets it built. Product marketing wires the messaging- the facts you want to communicate to customers- and gets the product sold. But from my experience that's a grievous mistake. Those are, and should aways be, one job. There should be no separation between what the product will be and how it will be explained- the story has to be utterly cohesive from the beginning. Your messaging is your product. The story you're telling shapes the thing you're making. I learned story telling from Steve Jobs. I learned product management from Greg Joswiak. Joz, a fellow Wolverine, Michigander, and overall great person, has been at Apple since he left Ann Arbor in 1986 and has run product marketing for decades. And his superpower- the superpower of every truly great product manager- is empathy. He doesn't just understand the customer. He becomes the customer. So when Joz stepped into the world with his next-gen iPod to test it out, he fiddled with it like a beginner. He set aside all the tech specs- except one: battery life. The numbers were empty without customers, the facts meaningless without context. And, that's why product management has to own the messaging. The spec shows the features, the details of how a product will work, but the messaging predicts people's concerns and finds way to mitigate them. - #BUILD Chapter 5.5 The Point of PMs

🙂

1972 ➡️2026 Apollo 17 ➡️ Artemis II