

George Nimeh
41.3K posts

@iboy
TED AI Ambassador :: CEO of N&P, The Agency for Changing Times







OpenAI is a $730 billion company doing what every $730 billion company eventually does: abandoning the product that made it famous to protect the product that actually makes money. The numbers explain the timing. OpenAI generated $13.1 billion in revenue last year and burned through $8 billion doing it. Internal projections show $14 billion in losses for 2026 alone, with cumulative losses reaching $143 billion by 2029. Amazon burned $3 billion before turning profitable. Uber burned $31 billion. OpenAI is projecting nearly 5x Uber’s hole, and the company expects to still be filling it three years from now. ChatGPT’s web traffic share dropped from 86.7% to 64.5% in twelve months. Google Gemini went from 5.7% to 21.5% over the same period. The consumer AI chatbot race is commoditizing in real time while the costs to compete in it keep climbing. Meanwhile, Codex crossed 1.5 million weekly active users with 20x growth since August 2025. Enterprise seats grew 9x year over year. 92% of Fortune 500 companies are using ChatGPT products. Revenue per user in enterprise dwarfs consumer subscriptions, and switching costs are orders of magnitude higher. Fidji Simo ran Instacart. She knows the playbook: when unit economics break down in consumer, you pivot to the customers who pay real money and can’t easily leave. Coding agents and enterprise API are that business. Sora and robotics and whatever else falls under “side projects” are capital incinerators with no clear revenue timeline. The $280 billion revenue target by 2030 requires roughly 2.3x growth this year, 2x in 2027, and 1.6x in 2028. That kind of compounding from a $25 billion ARR base only works if OpenAI owns the infrastructure layer for enterprise AI workflows. Consumer chatbots at $8 and $20 a month do not get you there. Codex at usage-based pricing against every Fortune 500 engineering team might. DeepSeek matches GPT-5 level performance at 1/10th to 1/30th the cost. The consumer floor is falling. The only defensible position left is deep enterprise integration where switching costs, not model quality, keep customers locked in. The mission was AGI for humanity. The strategy is Codex for Fortune 500. Those are different companies.

scoop - OpenAI’s Fidji Simo told staff last week that the company could not afford to be “distracted by side quests” as Anthropic gains steam in the enterprise and coding markets said company execs are actively looking at areas to deprioritize wsj.com/tech/ai/openai…


scoop - OpenAI’s Fidji Simo told staff last week that the company could not afford to be “distracted by side quests” as Anthropic gains steam in the enterprise and coding markets said company execs are actively looking at areas to deprioritize wsj.com/tech/ai/openai…









OpenAI is in advanced discussions to form a joint venture with private equity firms that would focus on bolstering adoption of its AI software across their portfolio companies bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Watching the #oscars on @ORF. Alexander Horwath ist so langweilig. No joy. He has to be snarky and can't even say something halfway nice about Gaga and Cooper's song. I mean, I'm not the biggest fan, but it was touching. But he had to snub it. Such an asshole move. Go away.




