nmiguelgomesf
4.5K posts
$KAS - The Prophecy: The Final Chapter 📜 Ladies and gentlemen, here we go. Can the best call in all of crypto get even better? Let's find out. Limit Line Risk Zones 🚦⚡️ From the beginning, the idea has been that the green and red lines are to be the focus in the bull market, and that they'd likely be ideal profit-taking areas. This remains the foundation of this analysis, however, there is much more that has gone into the final product. Just to give you an idea of what was taken into account while forming the zones (somewhat in order of importance): 🔹 Price (absolute/vertical risk) 🚦 🔹 Time (relative to 4-year cycle/horizontal risk) 🚥 🔹 Total & Local Growth (% gains from origin & most recent low preceding breakout) 📈 🔹 Pace (aggressiveness of impulses, absolute & relative to KAS historical preferred growth rates) ⚡️ 🔹 Fib Extension Targets (current and future* PA) 🔮 🔹 Bear Market Targets (reverse engineering from ideal macro lows) 📉 🔹 Market Share Potential (market cap via crypto total targets and diminishing returns theory) 💹 🔹 Posturing (projected relative strength based on would-be market structure) 🧱 🔹 Opportunity Cost** (odds of missing easier gains elsewhere) 🔎 🔹 Topping Patterns (accounting for possible paths based on common/logical top structures) 〽️ 🔹 Past Bull Market Performances of Top Alts💎 *yes, future PA means price action that hasn't happened yet **opportunity cost factors in mostly via timing as price hits certain points within the cycle Some of these will requiring monitoring and updates as time goes on. I won't dive into any more detail here as the post would get way too long, so if you have questions about anything in particular just ask in the comments. A brief disclaimer: There are 2 caveats that must be satisfied in order for this chart to maintain reliability - diminishing returns and the 4-year cycle. I cover this here (x.com/J3Charts/statu…) but more or less it says this cycle top has to fall within a reasonable accuracy of expected regression and timing. The greater the deviation from these expectations, the less reliable this chart will be. The Zones 🌈 In theory, the zones work like a traffic light. In reality, there are a couple differences and a few rules to know for a better understanding. Mainly, the zones are used to visualize risk to reward favorability over time. What they don't represent is safety, i.e., green isn't 'safe' and you don't wait for red to sell. The more proper way to look at it is when it might be smart to start considering taking profits (green means go). If you can't see the difference, you're missing a key value in analyzing risk-reward. The rules: 1⃣ Colors and the shades of those colors represent risk/reward at a given time/price. 2⃣ For 🔵🟢 the darker shades are riskier 3⃣ For 🟡🟠🔴 the brighter shades are riskier 4⃣ Color always trumps shade (dark red is riskier than bright orange) 5⃣ Any area that isn't covered by a zone is an area where it's likely either too early to consider selling or where you should've already sold Assessing Risk ⚠️ 🟦 Blue: Should be the earliest considerations for profit-taking. Likely will have the chance to buy lower in the long-term but may cut potential gains short. 🟩 Green: Strongly consider taking profit. High chance of being able to buy lower in the future, still may leave some gains on the table. 🟨 Gold: Ideal sell but the sharpest drop-off in risk-reward favorability. Almost certainly will be able to buy back lower down the line + potential gains from here are severely diminished. 🟧 Orange: Risk to reward is clearly unfavorable. Near certainty of the opportunity to buy lower later on with almost no remaining upside. 🟥 Red: Extreme risk. Virtually zero upside to not taking profits. ⚠️☣️🛑💀 I think the emojis speak for themselves. If somehow price makes it there, get out. The alarm clock is just signifying time-risk (late in the cycle) which is mainly why the entire Q4 corridor is red. ⏰ I realize some of the zone placements don't seem intuitive. They aren't but I promise you they're well calculated. If you have questions, ask and I'll explain. Some quick observations: - Notice anywhere above the red LL is red. This is intentional. I'd consider that line to be as close to the average trend (so far*) for the entire price history of Kaspa, and through this time period is where it finds peak unsustainability. This is evident by the somewhat poetic doubling in price at every quarter. 1⃣2⃣4⃣8⃣ - Notice how there are clear cuts/shifts in risk zones around 0.70, 1 and 1.30, with all the zones forming an almost diagonal bubble around this area as the focus. This is intentional. You'll find out why in a bit. 🪙 One last consideration is, while 90% of the focus here is on very high timeframes (>2 years), it's important to employ some common-sense judgement as far as when price is entering particular zones of a similar risk but at different times. Meaning, the peak price outlook and gameplan would be different if you find price in the orange zone in Q1 vs the orange zones in Q3. This is important, ask if you don't understand. 🧠 Peak Price Projections 💰🎯 And now, the moment you all have been waiting for. It's time. Can't wait to disappoint everyone.. 😅 My likely best-case** scenario for KAS this cycle is $0.70 - $1.40. From $1.40 to around $4 is my absolute best-case scenario and would likely require extreme deviations in cycle expectations. I'd guess <15% probability of this. Anything beyond $4 I'd consider a freak occurrence and/or it's highly likely one or both of the caveat principles will have been broken. This would be around <5% probability, imo, if not lower. Price peaking at or below $0.70 would have a much higher chance of transpiring than either of the previous 2 scenarios, imo, likely >35% probability. If something crazy does happen though, you'll all be able to bask in the glory of your "I told you so's" down the line because I'll be mostly* all out well before price is in the vicinity of those levels. 🫡 THAT IS ALL. 🎉 This has been years in the making and took many months of refining before I felt it was up to the standard of expectations, so if you could like, comment and share this, I'd be grateful. 💚 Also, follow me @J3Charts for important updates and similar content and thanks for reading! 🥂
