Jake Koch-Gallup

the monster has been unleashed. the $RAIL valuation report is live. 40 pages, 40 minute read. messari.io/report/a-valua… it is an enterprise report, so only @MessariCrypto enterprise clients have access. HOWEVER, let's break down the key points: 1) what is RAILGUN? @RAILGUN_Project is onchain ZK privacy infra for EVM networks. it lets users transact on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Polygon, and BNB Chain without revealing wallet identity, balances, or transaction intent. the protocol charges a 0.25% fee when assets enter or exit the privacy set (shield/unshield). all fees accrue onchain to the DAO treasury. 2% of the treasury is distributed to $RAIL stakers every two weeks, creating a direct link between usage, treasury growth, and staker cash flows. 2) how does RAILGUN work? railgun lets users move assets from public ERC-20 balances into a shared private pool (shielding), then transact from that pool without revealing wallet identity, balances, or intent. assets inside the pool aren’t account balances. they’re represented as private notes, proven valid with ZK proofs instead of being publicly readable onchain. users keep their normal 0x address, but also generate a private railgun address (0zk…). private transactions are built in-wallet, proven locally, then executed onchain with no link back to the public wallet. railgun is infrastructure, not a consumer wallet. wallets and apps integrate the railgun contracts and SDK to support private balances and private smart contract execution. this design keeps users on Ethereum’s existing liquidity and apps, while adding privacy at the settlement layer. 3) what does railgun adoption and revenue look like? railgun processed $2b in combined shield/unshield volume in 2025. this generated the protocol $5M. importantly, this revenue is earned without emissions, liquidity incentives, or subsidized activity. users are paying real fees for privacy. railgun captures nearly 5% of its TVL as revenue, materially higher than most DeFi infra protocols, which typically capture around 0.3-3%. this reflects the transactional nature of privacy flows as railgun monetizes capital movement, not passive liquidity. 4) what is the Kohaku Wallet SDK and why does it matter for RAILGUN? kohaku is an open-source wallet privacy SDK being developed under the @ethereumfndn. its goal is to make privacy native at the wallet layer, not a separate opt-in tool. instead of users going out of their way to use a privacy protocol, wallets can integrate Kohaku and offer private balances and private transactions directly in normal wallet flows. railgun is already integrated into Kohaku. that means railgun becomes part of default wallet transaction flows. once Kohaku goes live and tier-1 wallets (like @MetaMask) start integrating it, railgun’s addressable market expands from users who actively seek privacy to a massive share of Ethereum’s wallet-reachable capital. that shift, from niche tooling to default wallet infra, is the core driver behind the upside scenarios in my valuation. 5) how exactly did I value $RAIL? i start with Ethereum’s capital base (ETH market cap + stablecoins), model how much of it migrates into RAILGUN’s privacy set over time, and translate that into revenue thru a declining capture rate. revenue minus operating expenses = operating cash flow. ~52% gets paid to stakers, the rest accumulates in the DAO treasury, and i value both pieces (cash flows + treasury) to arrive at intrinsic $RAIL per token. the base case intrinsic value provides a clean and defensible anchor for what $RAIL should be worth if adoption plays out as modeled. $RAIL's current price sits at a significant discount to that base case. 6) disclaimer: i hold $RAIL. this report is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. 7) railtardio. - railgun quant

@KreiserMatt @pumpcade Amazing - congrats Matt!

.@pumpcade: the fastest prediction markets for any verifiable source, resolved instantly. We aren’t here to take part, we’re here to take over. Hyped to join the team. It’s a Pumpcade summer and there’s absolutely nothing anybody is going to be able to do to stop it. Go time.

@swansonbenson0 Sir this is why altcoins are all down 99%

What happened to just letting tokens pump man… if every token needs to be hyperliquid to pump, there is one token to buy and it is hyperliquid… just let some bullshiat pump for old times sake

@nftboi_ @Collector_Crypt I only see the onchain TCG market growing from here… so super bullish

@immutablejacob @Collector_Crypt What if there was a fast growing TCG that issued an ownership coin and had no equity

@notpratty not fud. i'm bullish collector crypt, but also understand that in crypto, business success ≠ token success

@c0xswain @Collector_Crypt yeah this is exactly my point. I know the team has been cooking on value accrual to tokenholders, but at the moment i dont want to invest in something based on a "trustmebro"

@immutablejacob @Collector_Crypt tbh you have a point. no doubt it's trustmebro for now. however, tuom has been amazing at execution and there's nothing they've done so far to break the trust of both users and tokenholders

$CARDS has repriced much faster than actual @Collector_Crypt growth. $CARDS is up 123% over the past 30 days and 667% over 90 days. gacha spending grew 74% and 153% over the same timeframes. this rerating may be justified if token value accrual follows. today, however, the link from app growth to tokenholder returns is unclear. i'd have a much easier time going all-in on $CARDS if value capture was actually explicit (like with $RAIL). honestly though this is a much bigger crypto problem: > tokenholders are told they're buying exposure to network growth. > in reality, they're buying exposure to the *possibility* that network growth benefits the token. > meanwhile, equity holders benefit by default. to me that feels super backwards, and something we need to fix asap.

@CryptoRick98 @Collector_Crypt Yes, Collector Crypt has issued equity in previous funding rounds

@immutablejacob @Collector_Crypt Does CARDS also have equity associated to it?

@0xWeiler @MessariCrypto was a pleasure working with you sir 🫡 you will do great things!!

Blockworks acquired @MessariCrypto and as a result, Friday was my last day. Messari was the best job I've had. Getting to sharpen my thinking on Prediction Markets, DeFi, Stablecoins, Interop, and more alongside some of the brightest research minds in crypto every day was something I won't take for granted. The Messari Mafia is real, and I know the alumni network will keep driving thought leadership in the space long after the brand sunsets. Two people I want to call out specifically: @AvgJoesCrypto my Day 1 manager who taught me how to formulate and own a thesis, stay ahead of the curve across every corner of crypto, and lead by example. Set the bar for what top-tier research looks like. @KreiserMatt my more recent manager, a consummate professional and one of the sharpest business minds in a space flooded with noise. Taught me to build arguments from fundamentals and find the truth in writing. I'm a better analyst and writer for it. Too many others to name, but you know who you are. I'm actively looking for my next opportunity. DMs open.

@jonnytoshi @AvgJoesCrypto thanks man & you will do great things!!

Messari got acquired by Blockworks and my role didn't make the cut, so Friday was my last day. Big congrats to @AvgJoesCrypto and @ImmutableJacob for making the move from Messari research, the bar you set is the one I measured myself against. Thank you for everything you taught me. I was only there ~10 months, but I grew more in that time than I had in years before it. I came from a different background and got dropped straight into producing institutional-grade research next to analysts who set an extremely high standard. I learned how to actually structure an argument, pressure-test a thesis, and write with the precision this work demands. I'm leaving a sharper researcher and writer than I arrived, and for that I'm grateful. Coming out of it, I'm more bullish than ever on where crypto research/IR is headed. With AI tooling and data availability increasing, the cost of producing good research keeps dropping. But distribution is still underdeveloped, and getting genuinely good analysis to the right people, in a form they'll actually engage with, is one of the hardest and most important parts of this whole space. Feels like we're still early in figuring it out, and there's a lot left to build. Not sure what comes next, but I know it will be great. I'm actively looking for the right next opportunity, DMs are open!

@KreiserMatt @AvgJoesCrypto thank you sir! you will kill it wherever you land 🫡

Blockworks chose not to retain me in their acquisition of Messari, so Friday was my last day. Congrats to @AvgJoesCrypto and @ImmutableJacob for being the two to make it over from Messari research. Keep being great and standing in the presence of kings! It was an incredible blessing to work at Messari with analysts who collectively created such a special culture. I’m as bullish on crypto/data/research/IR as @JasonYanowitz and @MikeIppolito_ are about Blockworks’ acquisition of Messari. Internet native media like @counterpartytv, AI, and data accessibility are creating a ripe environment for new types of research/IR services, offerings, and business models I’m excited to explore. With that, I’m actively looking for the next right opportunity. DM’s open!

@sjdedic @Blockworks thanks simon!!

@immutablejacob @Blockworks Congrats mate, same job, only better 🔥

excited to share that today is my first day at @Blockworks as a Senior Research Analyst. following Blockworks' acquisition of @MessariCrypto, i'm grateful for the opportunity to continue covering the crypto industry and the sectors I've spent the past several years researching. i’ll be publishing research on L1s, token valuations, crypto venture, market structure, and more. i’m a crypto permabull and proud to join a team focused on bringing greater transparency and trust to onchain markets. looking forward to what's ahead. onwards.

@0xYoussef_ @Blockworks thanks youssef!!

@immutablejacob @Blockworks Congrats Jake!

@RailgunIntern @Blockworks just railgun quant things

@immutablejacob @Blockworks Quant be quanting

@BrianInCrypto @Blockworks thanks brian - you too!!

@immutablejacob @Blockworks Keep cooking

@dylangbane @Blockworks thanks dylan !!

@immutablejacob @Blockworks Congrats Jake!

@JasonYanowitz @Blockworks thank you sir!! 🫡

@immutablejacob @Blockworks welcome aboard sir

@0xnikhilchat @Blockworks thanks nikhil!!

@immutablejacob @Blockworks @MessariCrypto Pumped to have you on board!!

@fergmolina @Blockworks 🔥

@immutablejacob @Blockworks @MessariCrypto LFG

@0xnikhilchat @blockworksres Thank you sir! 🔥

The @blockworksres team is growing in quantity and quality. Give @immutablejacob a follow 👀

@br_slack @Blockworks thank you ser 🫡

@immutablejacob @Blockworks @MessariCrypto One of the best around 🏆 Thrilled to have you back on the team!