James | Daily Price Action

Never waste a good correction. Cheers to the long game 🥃

Today’s Market Rotation Alert 🚨 Semiconductor stocks are taking a hit today under fresh pressure from growing Chinese competition. Notably memory giant ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). At the same time, we're seeing a clear capital shift: money flowing out of hardware and chipmakers is rotating directly into software leaders like $NOW, $MSFT, $PLTR, and $ADBE today. Is it just one or two day event, or a longer shift ? Will keep watching and update. #TechStocks #Software #Semiconductor

@dom_kwok Any other treasury with similar issue ?

since i first called for the “spiral of doom” for $MSTR, the stock is down over 70%. and all of the below have played out step by step, in real time.

@TheValueThinker Where is he getting money to buy back shares ? Also, you think $BMNR should use their staking money to buy back more shares now ?

$BMNR moving $ETH +4.5% That share BUYBACK helping to light 🔥 Continue to align the company's interest with shareholders.

@dom_kwok Sometimes the harder you work, the luckier you get.

before you win, everyone will ask why you’re working so hard. after you win, everyone will remind you how lucky you got.

Quick Update on $NOW Sellers backed off on Friday and buyers stepped in, giving us a nice green candle right above the trendline. The trendline is holding, for now. We’ll see how this battle unfolds this coming week.

@TicTocTick She needs a good technical analysis in her team.

Cathie wood has purchased $50 million in $tsla stock calling it “deflationary impact” of technological revolution. She has delivered -9% annualized returns compared to just 11% for s&p500 . These deflationary returns will reverse once deflation sets in.

@elonmusk In the FinTwit world, he’s the ultimate Diamond Hand. Imagine holding a stock so long that the retired CEO has to trek into the jungle 30 years later just to hand you the delisting notice.

Hardcore

Hi Ashley, There are endless fundamentals and headlines people point to, and you’ll see plenty of those debated here on X. But stripped down to raw price action and liquidity, it comes down to a complete imbalance of confidence. Sellers were already seeing weakness before earnings, but held back selling, waiting for the event. Buyers needed a strong catalyst to justify stepping in, and earnings did NOT provide one. Sometimes trying to quantify every piece of news is difficult. To keep it simple: sellers were confident and aggressive, while buyers completely stepped out of the way. That total lack of demand and extreme imbalance is what caused price to fall ~14% in a single day.

@increpublic I'm not sure I understand completely... Did the stop drop bc they are spending a bunch of money on Optimus and the finance guys on the call didn't like the fact that Elon can't give an actual timeline of when optimus will be profitable? That is what I gathered

📈 Why Did $TSLA Dropped ~14% ? Everyone’s asking the same question, but have different reactions: • Bulls: "Tesla is a great company, this is a prime opportunity to buy the dip." • Bears: "Told you so, it’s way overvalued." I’ll attempt to answer this question from a Price Action and Market Psychology perspective. 1. The Setup: A Coiled Spring Leading into earnings, $TSLA showed classic compression: • Tightening Range: Price squeezed into a tight symmetrical triangle. • Fading Volume: Participation dried up. When volatility compresses on shrinking volume, price acts like a coiled spring waiting for a catalyst to explode. 2. Price Action: Early Warnings • Pre-Earnings Pressure: Clues appeared a week early as sellers quietly positioned and hedged. You can see the red candle from last week. • The Breakout: Earnings triggered the release, snapping support and slicing straight toward $300. 3. Psychology: Zero Buyers • Big Money Waited: Stay on the sidelines. While short seller waited for the perfect opportunity. • No Absorption: Volume was high but not massive panic volume for a ~14% drop. Which means demand completely vanished, and sellers took full control. Bottom Line: to answer the question above. When price compresses into a tight symmetrical triangle on drying volume, it tells you that neither bulls nor bears have confidence in the current price. Once a catalyst hits, it trips the wire, and that coiled spring snaps violently in the direction of least resistance.

Capital is useless if you never convert it into life. Time to enjoy the upside. Have a great Saturday evening, everyone !

@mrfundman At this point, we don’t know yet. If sellers are done, or buyers are ready to step in. I look at price action to reduce market noise. I also use it to answer why $TSLA drop ~14% in one day.

People that shorted $TSLA when market opens

@The_RockTrading He got in right before the pressure pop. Whenever this amount of pressure build, reaction will be dramatic.

Burry does it again. $TSLA.

@Vol888 Exactly ! Bulls: “It’s the best buying opportunity” Bears: “I told you so, it’s overvalued” Me: Look at it from a pure price action and market psychology point of view. Help me filter out the noice to understand what happen.

$TSLA This is why I avoid guessing. I prefer using technical analysis to stack the probabilities in my favor.

@LBarrqv Good fundamental information here. I try to answer why tesla drop ~14% in a technical way.

What many people fail to understand is why Tesla sold a record number of cars in Q2 with a 26% revenue increase, yet its operating profits plummeted. Where did all that money go? Today, let's talk strictly about this earnings report The issue facing Tesla right now isn't that its cars aren't selling it's that Musk is taking all the cash earned from the automotive business to feed his expanding AI empire. Looking closely at this report reveals a striking paradox. Tesla’s Q2 revenue reached $28.24 billion, beating market expectations, with trailing 12-month revenue crossing the $100 billion threshold for the first time. Vehicle deliveries hit 480,000 units (up 25% year over year), automotive revenue grew by 23%, and the services business surged by 50%. On the surface, everything looks fantastic However, adjusted EPS came in at just $0.33 a third lower than market expectations. Operating profit shrank to $400 million, the operating margin dropped from 4.1% to 1.4%, and free cash flow turned negative to -$1.1 billion The real red flag in this earnings report isn't a sudden collapse in the car business; it's the rapid surge in operating expenses. AI R&D, the Robotaxi fleet, Optimus production lines, Cybercab scaling, in-house chip design, and compute infrastructure every single project is burning capital well in advance In Q2 alone, Tesla's capital expenditures hit $5.79 billion. Management expects full year 2026 capex to exceed $25 billion, with continued growth expected over the next two to three years, alongside arrangements for up to $30 billion in debt financing. Musk has called this the fastest industrial scale expansion in the U.S. since World War II What exactly is this $25 billion buying? FSD and Robotaxi: Tesla's global paid FSD user base is approaching 1.5 million (up 56% year over year) In North America, 55% of new vehicle deliveries now have FSD enabled, with 45% opting for the subscription model. This shows Tesla is actively transitioning from one time hardware sales to recurring software revenue Robotaxi is also producing more concrete metrics: management stated that unsupervised Robotaxis have logged over 380,000 miles across six cities in two states without any notable incidents. That progress is commendable. However, 380,000 miles is still far from proving large-scale commercial viability. What truly bears watching next is fleet size, paid ride volume, operating cost per mile, and the pace of regulatory approvals across more cities Optimus:Optimus carries even greater upside than Robotaxi, but scaling its manufacturing is vastly more difficult. Musk admitted that Optimus may be the hardest product to mass produce in Tesla's history because a vast majority of the humanoid components lack an existing supply chain actuators, dexterous hands, and flexible circuits all require ground up redesigns Tesla is currently setting up its first generation Optimus assembly line at the Fremont factory on the former Model S and Model X line. Yet Musk acknowledged that the initial production ramp curve will be long and flat. Right now, Optimus acts more like a long-term call option rather than a business segment that can support current earnings In House Chips and Compute: Tesla doubled its training compute capacity in the first half of the year, with the Cortex2 facility drawing over 115MW of power while pushing forward with A14, A15, and A16 chip designs. Musk even suggested that without its own TeraFab, future Optimus production could be bottlenecked by a shortage of AI chips There is nothing wrong with this strategic logic: to lead in real-world AI, Tesla must simultaneously control data, models, chips, compute, and manufacturing. But that is precisely where the challenge liesevery single link in that chain is extraordinarily expensive, and every project carries execution and delay risks When Morgan Stanley gave Tesla a $417 target price, they valued the legacy automotive business at just $47 meaning nearly 90% of the company's valuation relies on future initiatives like FSD, Robotaxi, the energy network, and Optimus. That is what makes Tesla so difficult to value You can't simply judge the company by its $398 million quarterly operating profit, because it is genuinely building a future that could dwarf its car business. But you also can't blindly buy into the dream Elon sells, because Robotaxi has yet to generate scaled profits, Optimus is still building out its supply chain, and proprietary chip fabs remain far from fully validated. Ultimately, buying Tesla stock is buying Elon Musk If you believe Musk can deliver on Robotaxi, Optimus, proprietary chips, and AI manufacturing one by one, you will view today's compressed margins and negative cash flow as the bedrock of a future empire. If you don't believehim, you'll feel the market has already priced in far too much unearned profit. In my view, Tesla's direction of investing heavily in AI is correct, and its core automotive foundation hasn't collapsed. However, the current execution and monetization speed of Robotaxi and Optimus simply aren't matching such a high valuation valuation. Should you still buy or hold TSLA? Going forward, watch three key indicators: 1. Can paid FSD user numbers keep growing? 2. Can Robotaxi begin generating verifiable revenue? 3. Can Optimus move beyond the experimental assembly line? I am willing to track the blueprint Musk has laid out for the long haul. But until these future ventures actually start generating cash, I don't possess enough faith in Musk to pay upfront for all those promises on behalf of the market. If you do, you aren't wrong you just need to endure the near term volatility and pain, which won't be easy. Nobody can tell you how much lower it might drop or how long the wait will be; that is a risk you must carry yourself

@singularity_adj I look at the same question and attempt to answer it in a technical way.

TSLA dropped 14% after earnings call because investors saw massive AI/Optimus spending with no big near-term payoff yet — impatience kicked in. Elon: Keep us in the loop on the timeline! We'd like to hear from Optimus once in a while!

@CuriousPejjy These are some good fundamental reasons. I also look at why and attempt to answer this question from a price action and market psychology perspective.

2 main reasons why $TSLA stock crashed the way it did and it wasn't earnings: 1. Elon over-promising and under-delivering with Robotaxi. He mentioned in 2025 that Robotaxi would cover 50% of the US market. Obviously that didn't happen and probably won't until maybe 2027 or 2028. Elon does deliver what he promises eventually but the market does not like these kinds of promises and thus they were waiting for good news with scaling deployment and instead got told to wait longer as safety is the #1 priority. Investors heard that and jumped ship. 2. Missed out of other opportunities. Since the peak of $TSLA in 2021 at $414, the stock has been below that for that 5 years. In that time, $MU, $NVDA, $META and others has had an incredible run. Like a 10X ROI. Investors say Tesla stock has costed them BIG opportunity cost and now that the Tesla team has confirmed that Robotaxi will not material until some time short-term investors much prefer to sell and invest in other things that will give a ROI quicker. "Why wait another 2 years when I can make money with X stock and make a return" is the story. However, despite these reasons, $TSLA is a long term investment. Period. 10 years MINIMUM. I don't think you'll be complaining about your investment in 2031 if you bought at the peak of 2021 just like how long-term investors invested in 2016 and aren't complaining now even with a big 20% drop. This is NFA but I'm sure Tesla, the company and stock, will be viewed completely different by 2030 and long term investors will be "genius" looking ones. If not, come back to this post and shit on me. BOOKMARK IT.

@cantonmeow I wonder if social media gather all these data to understand sentiment.

There are at least 5 comments under my posts today guaranteeing $100 for $TSLA.

@rar2028 $TSLA stock been coiling like a spring for sometime. Earning release that pent up energy.

이번 -14.53% 하락은 역대 9위 테슬라는 큰 폭락 이후 5일 동안 대부분 회복 했습니다.

@lgcoelho21 @InTheAssembly I don’t think I’m part of that “we” because I don’t know what’s going on.

@InTheAssembly I never know what happen when yall say things like “we all know why this is hsppening”. Can you share a little be of your knowledge for us? Thanks

Tesla $TSLA crashes further, now down ~18.5% in just two days. We all know why this is happening.