mm33

My @Kalshi history summary and review after two months.... Starter portfolio: $100 Month #1: +$225 Month #2: +$5883 Below is a collage of my biggest wins and losses so far. 18 markets are responsible for +$5,659, 93% of my total profits. One market is responsible for 65% of my total profit. _____________________________ When I look at the collage of these 18 markets I see a few trends: 1) A few markets have been everything for me. It's almost as if I'm panning for gold, and I have to show up every day, but all that really matters are the big finds. This can be either encouraging or discouraging depending on how I view it (luck vs. skill, sustainable or not, consistent or not etc). 2) Olympics was my jam. $5,273 profit across the 5 winning markets. That's 86% of my total Kalshi profit to date. This can also be seen as either encouraging or discouraging. 3) I left a looooot of money on the table with the Olympic markets. I think if I was in the same sort of situations again with the knowledge, experience, and portfolio I have now, I make $10,000-$20,000 on those markets. That's incredibly encouraging from multiple angles. 4) 5 of my 6 biggest losing markets were oddballs. -1 rulecucks -2 mismogs -1 leaked transcripts on State of State that I didn't know how to handle -1 was me predicting a rug which shows I'm an idiot sometimes and still learning -The 6th big-loss market I knew nothing about but trusted a tip from a friend (I don't mind losing there, and there's a lesson in it). -There have been three other rulecucks as well that cost me $1,500 total but don't show up here because they weren't big losses. This says I really don't lose much in the macro. I'm extremely good at managing downside and being patient. 5) I have three solid earning wins which is encouraging, the 4th which is a big-loss was one of the mismogs. I'm something like 15/15 on earning calls when I research and attend them from beginning to end which is promising. It would seem I'm ready to scale there and make that a consistent revenue stream for me. 6) I have no consistent political wins to speak of which is the bread and butter for most mentioners. This can either been seen as extremely encouraging as I haven't yet begun to tap that water spigot, or extremely discouraging because I don't have what it takes there. I think it's the former, but I am trepidatious about diving in. I need to think deeply about why that is. Other notes..... It's super odd to look back through my Kalshi history and see $1 bets and $2 wins/losses in the beginning, just 70 days ago. Like, what was I thinking?!? Lol. But even until 3 weeks ago my bets were $5 and I was proud of a $25 win. It's kind of amazing how fast we can adapt to new situations and find new normals. Month 1 was me experimenting on Kalshi and focusing on sports. Month 2 was me leaving my job, taking things seriously, and doing lots of sports before focusing on mentions. The plan for this month is to focus purely on mentions, to start using more tools, to scale up the bets and to dive into the political arena (Trump, Mamdani, Hochul etc). This month will be where the rubber meets the road and we see if I'm any good or if I've just been getting lucky. A month ago, when I started taking this seriously, my goal was to make $100/day. The goal this month is $300/day and $10,000 for the month. My family needs it, so between the planned trips, the newborn, and the "wife talks" (which you'll have too if you're married and decide to take Kalshi seriously) I gotta find a way. I'm excited to see what happens, but I'm still not confident I can do this. My confidence usually lags behind my abilities so let's see what happens. They say, "Women see deep, but a man sees far." The "wife talks" are a great example of this, but I've found in life that most men can't see far either. Well, we see far, and it's time to achieve what we envision and bring it into the present. ____________________ **These first two months were measured from the 22nd of the month, starting on December 22nd when I deposited $100. This "month" I'm going to count from Feb 23 - March 31st as that'll be easier and in line with the trend of when people post monthly reviews.**

Shoutout @radarmentions for the tool