Aditya Trivedi

@TheClubJunto 💯💯

When to Start Buying in the Current Market 1. Don't buy the dip. The stock can dip further 50%. 2. Don't buy low P/E. Q4 Earnings will be bad (so P/E will rise). 3. Buy when liquidity wave turns. Follow the speed of FII outflows, not just the volume. How to Follow Liquidity: Don’t Buy Stocks Till FII “Selling Intensity” Is High a. Selling intensity is a measure of the speed at which capital is exiting the market, rather than just the total volume of exit. b. “Net FII Outflow” tells you how much money has left the building. “Selling Intensity” tells you how fast everyone tried to escape through the exit door at the same time. c. DIIs can absorb FII exits only if FII selling intensity is low. SIP money comes in slowly every month. But FIIs have mountains of ready stock holdings. If they decide to sell fast, DIIs have no defence. Liquidity Impact on the Markets FII Selling Intensity Per Trading Hour = (Total Outflows in a Month) ÷ (Number of Trading Days in the Month x 6.25 Trading Hours Per Day) JAN-JUNE 2024 FII Selling Intensity: ₹18 cr per hour FII Net Outflow: (-) ₹14,000 cr Nifty 50 Return: 10.4% (1 Jan to 30 June, 2024) NOTE: Low FII selling intensity; High Nifty returns. JULY-DEC 2024 FII Selling Intensity: ₹84 cr per hour FII Net Outflow: (-) ₹66,000 cr Nifty 50 Return: 1.2% (1 July to 31 Dec, 2024) NOTE: High FII selling intensity; Low Nifty returns JAN-JUNE 2025 FII Selling Intensity: ₹152 cr per hour FII Net Outflow: (-) ₹1.14 lakh cr Nifty 50 Return: 8.2% (1 Jan to 30 June, 2025) NOTE: High FII selling intensity. DIIs aggressively pushed up Nifty 50 to hold sentiment, but could not defend midcaps & smallcaps against this intensity. By early 2025, 70% of all midcaps & smallcaps were trading below their 200-day moving averages. JULY-DEC 2025 FII Selling Intensity: ₹115 cr per hour FII Net Outflow: (-) ₹86,000 cr Nifty 50 Return: 2.4% (1 July to 31 Dec, 2025) NOTE: Moderate FII selling intensity; DIIs once again managed to defend Nifty 50, but could not stop the bloodbath in midcaps & smallcaps in the second half of 2025. JAN-MAR 2026 (Only 3 months) FII Selling Intensity: ₹339 cr per hour FII Net Outflow: (-) ₹1.27 lakh cr Nifty 50 Return: (-) 14.7% (1 Jan to 30 Mar, 2026) NOTE: This was the FII velocity shock (high-speed capital exit in a very short period), which DIIs were unable to absorb. Nifty 50 finally capitulated. When to Start Buying Stocks a. Stage 1 – High Intensity: Till FII selling intensity remains high, the stock prices may only go down further. So, stay out. b. Stage 2 – Moderate Intensity: When FII selling intensity moderates, stock prices may stagnate (further declines may be halted). It may still not be worth deploying your hard-earned cash in risky assets if there is stagnation (= no visible upside.) c. Stage 3 – Low Intensity: Once FII selling intensity reduces significantly, then don’t wait for FIIs to become net positive buyers. You cannot wait for 100% safety. When there is 70-80% visibility, go all-in before the entry door closes. d. Remember, there are 4 risks at present: (1) Global AI crash (2) Demand destruction in India due to IT job losses (3) Indian rupee depreciates further, triggering FII capital flight (4) SIP inflows slow down due to poor or no returns Against these 4 risks, you need to at least see a clear visible upside (better than FD returns) to deploy your life's savings in market-linked assets. What happens if any one of these 4 risks materializes? So, go slow, respect risk, and watch the liquidity. ENDQUOTE “Earnings don’t move markets. Liquidity moves markets.” – Stanley Druckenmiller, Legendary Investor @arabicatrader

The perfect day to re-read what I wrote a while ago. The article that esteemed @iRadhikaGupta then alluded to, calling it " click bait". Reality is: What's happened last 2 years is the largest wealth transfer in the history of wealth transfers. With the active connivance of Wealth/ asset managers, F:&O brokers, finfluencers, fin media. The narrative from every Lallu panju was " This time it's different". After 44 years of doing this, baccha party, lemme tell you: It's never different. Only the ones who lose, are change each time. In our time, we made the gora F2s lose to us Roadless Locals. But this time, the F2s have won at the expense of Roadless Locals. And that's creating a giant macro crisis. Read. Reflect. Rotate "How India created a generation of brainwashed investors. And the macro disaster this has created" moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/h…

@1shankarsharma @iRadhikaGupta What a solid article. One of the very few voices, along with @arabicatrader Sharad sir, who speaks honestly and is guiding us in the right way, while much of the industry focuses on pushing mutual funds mainly to earn commissions 💯💯

@himansh63588688 Theek hai Janab

@itsAdityaT Go to pakistan bro

Indian rupee falls to 95 against dollar. Vishwaguru🔥

@AdityaTodmal Yup. We are at loss since day 1 when rupee falls

@itsAdityaT Hard to compete with US traders when we have to trade both skill and currency at the same time. Rupee up = my edge goes down.

@ParikshitTrader 😂

@itsAdityaT That's why they are called Mutual Lund

Mutual Fund Dalle are desperatly trying to make everyone invest by saying things like: 1: Buy the dip 2: This is the best time to start sip 3: Buy when there's blood on the street 4: Bull run har jagah hai, kabhi market mein to kabhi units mein 5: Vishwaguru growth story

Majority are buying the dip since last 2 years listening to Mutual fund advisors. They've run out of money when the actual dip came.

@Darshil_Dana Being oversmart is dangerous

Such tweets on timelines are a classic sign of bottom formation! 👍

@itsAdityaT Mutual fund distribution offers good commissions, which is why SIPs are praised all day long on social media to increase volumes. Fund managers also live a very glamorous life.Everyone benefits except retail investors

@Akveq_ 😂😂

@itsAdityaT If you do not regularly buy the dip and make a sip, how will they give 5 star restaurants waiters in Europe their tip?

@ReLearnFinance1 Kahin aur jaake gyaan pelo

@itsAdityaT SIP investors buying through corrections are accumulating units at prices below 2024 peaks. Lower NAV = more units = better long-term XIRR. Wealth transfers occur when investors STOP SIPs in a panic, not when they continue. Mutual funds sahi hai only for those who stay.

Sip doers are not going to see peak 2024 valuations even in 2030. This is the biggest wealth transfer in history from common people to promotors, fund managers, fiis. Mutual funds sahi hai?😂😂😂😂

@adityasinghania Lag gaye bc Goldbees mein

When the shit hits, everything hits together

Fun fact: in 2008, when we published that NAD-dependent SIRT1 suppresses cancer, almost no one believed us. How could a longevity gene suppress cancer? they asked

@Milind4profits Yess. Both the ways are messy

@itsAdityaT Regulatory risks have increased with practical gag orders on discussing live charts of stocks by unregistered advisors ...while if one registers compliances are over the board costly in efforts + penalties.

Option selling is dead in this regime. I miss the old days of twitter where everyone was active. It was fun. Now it seems like the entire community is dead or inactive.

@anilbalaji11 Lets Join yaar @AdityaTodmal 💯💯💯💯

@BehaveLedger @AdityaTodmal So true 👍

@itsAdityaT @AdityaTodmal Option selling isn't dead. The Recency Bias of a 4-8% monthly ROI is. You're trading a memory of an easier regime, not the current tape. If your edge only works in low vol, it wasn't an edge,it was just a seasonal gift.

@AdityaTodmal Haan way easier than jane street days

@itsAdityaT Accha that way. Too high a benchmark I feel. It certainly seems easier to me compared to when Jane Street was active. 2023 April onwards, smaller movements and candles relative to now. That period seems most difficult to me.