@WeirderRieces I like to follow what Edward Altman and S&P. One is an academic and S&P is like the market, and they almost always have differing views and are affected by their own biases.
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WarnTracker 2.0
5.6K posts
@WeirderRieces Just bookmark this link, check every Monday, and click on “This Week In Credit:” It will tell you all the defaults and ratings actions.
#q=&rows=20&pagenum=1&sort=es_unified_dt%20desc" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">spglobal.com/ratings/en/res…
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It’s been a bit since I looked at one of these, but looks like things have not improved for the Zombie companies, and corporate bankruptcies remain high…
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WarnTracker 2.0 retweetledi
SaveTradeInvest@SaveTradeInvest
Q3 2025 corporate bankruptcies: 46 (Q3 2024: 39, +18%). Biggest Q3 cases: First Brands Group auto parts ($10 to $50BN liabilities), Tricolor Holdings subprime auto lender, Ch.7 ($1 to $10BN), Omnicare CVS subsidiary, Ch.11 ($1 to $10BN). #Bankruptcy #Chapter11 #Chapter7 #FinTwit
QME
My final prediction is Rackspace (RXT), but I am rusty. And these posts are for entertainment purposes only. And if you want to learn something watch this. This is where I learned about “Billion-Dollar Babies” and Big Bankruptcies.
youtu.be/iV6yaDMPMKM?si…
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WarnTracker 2.0@j77324
Let’s see if I still got it, and if I can predict the next Billion-Dollar Bankruptcy. I’m a bit rusty, but here are my top choices for the next Billion-Dollar Bankruptcy
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Let’s see if I still got it, and if I can predict the next Billion-Dollar Bankruptcy. I’m a bit rusty, but here are my top choices for the next Billion-Dollar Bankruptcy
WarnTracker 2.0@j77324
It’s been a bit since I looked at one of these, but looks like things have not improved for the Zombie companies, and corporate bankruptcies remain high…
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Official formula Challenger job cuts 3 month average 68,000 (for May, June, July), BLS Layoffs change y/y over 3 months (+62,000), BLS seasonal adjustment, and the average of unadjusted initial claims (221,000)
221,000*.891=196,911+4500=201,411/.891=226,050.505 or 226k
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The formula for challenger is taking the monthly average layoffs, which is 68,000 and divide by the recipiency rate (.27) which is 27% and then divide by 4, which is about 4,590 people that apply for initial claims more than last year, but I also use the BLS number for layoffs
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@LexTweetr @BLS_gov I wouldn’t blame the BLS for everything that is wrong. They are academics. Trump is president, and tries to shill all of his shitty crypto coins. He is no better, and is no where near Lincoln or Washington as a good president. Lincoln got ridiculed a lot too
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Take the average between Challenger and the BLS layoffs and discharges number and divide by 2 and then divide by 4 (68,000+62,000=130,000/2=65,000*.27=17,550/4=4,387.5). This is the number to add to made initial claims.
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Initial Claims non-seasonally adjusted averaged about 221,000 last year. The recipiency rates are also incredibly low at 27%, but Challenger job cuts high, and claims are low. I’ll show you how to bridge them.
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