JackCap

@MikeFritzell Have noticed the same thing. @skhetpal what are you doing to us?

@amaldorai More interested in the median figure

The average Philips Exeter alumnus has a net worth over $10 million.

@Biohazard3737 Saw his 13F, that’s unusual concentration

@pyhrroll Did Global Tech Research shut down? It seems that a squatter is sitting on their url

My previous post went viral on Reddit overnight (8.5k upvotes in total) so here is an update: I now spend $13,000/year on 31 paid Substack newsletters so you don’t have to. Here’s who actually makes money 🧵

@F_Compounders Schwarzman in the middle

Can you name all these people?

@WaterworldCapi1 SK Square to the 🌙

@TomWrightAsia @whereisjho Songjiang District. Have you tried door knocking?

The hunt for Jho Low is not over. We located his home and identified his fake passport. But there’s more to do. Tips here: @whereisjho $jholow Let’s find him and bring him home!

@nicholasp66 How do you buy a Nagoya Exchange listed stocks? I tried searching on IB and nothing came of it

“I think it’s the biggest mistake in our business. At some point the analysis becomes counterproductive…speed matters now. If you analyze a company for four months and you’re not willing to operate with 15% or 20% of information, you’ll often miss a big move and then you’re afraid to buy it because it has moved…sometimes when the opportunity is so big and you just kinda know it, you’ve just got to plunge in.”

@SleepwellCap Would love to read as well 🙏

anyone have the Rubric Capital letter they could share with me on DM? thanks🙏🏼

@JehoshaphatRsch Great call

We are short goeasy $GSY, a Canadian subprime lender with easy to borrow stock. Below is a summary of the key opinions in this idea; for the full short thesis including a downloadable PDF, please see the Jehoshaphat Research website. 1) Investors believe GSY has a “secret sauce” of novel, brilliant underwriting. We agree – well, sort of. The secret sauce is accounting, rather than underwriting, creativity. A number of aggressive accounting policies and rule changes have massaged charge-offs, delinquencies, opex, earnings and ROE into more favorable-looking short-term performance. 2) We believe the combination of all these accounting shenanigans has inflated pre-tax earnings by hundreds of millions of dollars, and has delayed a similar amount of charge-offs into the near future. We estimate a ~$300m “snowball” of charge-offs that has been rolled up and will start melting all over the balance sheet in the next few quarters. 3) While an X post doesn’t lend itself to a full laundry list of accounting games (see our full PDF for all these opinions), one that lends itself well to a single image (see below) is GSY suddenly "deciding" to no longer charge off deadbeat car loans at 180 days past due. You can see the immediate effect of this decision on charge-off numbers. This is a great way to be able to tell investors that charge-offs are coming down. And technically, they are! 4) Another fun one: GSY appears to have “re-bucketed” ~8% of its loan book into a lower-risk category, despite no apparent change in credit score. This would probably explain a crash in a key loan loss provision rate in the exact same quarter and since, which we identified by comparing several years’ worth of such data. 5) Why doesn’t anyone talk about unpaid interest receivable at this company? We’ll start the conversation: It’s exploding and it may be the single most useful indicator of borrower stress at GSY. This explosion contrasts sharply with relatively muted past due rates, but dovetails perfectly with the idea of tons of “hidden” past-dues. 6) Investors like GSY for its high reported ROE, of course. But you can scrub the ROE to remove the effect of all these accounting changes and irregularities, and if you do that, you’ll find a business that isn’t even earning its cost of capital. This is to say nothing of the high likelihood of GSY missing earnings dramatically in the coming quarters from all these artificially delayed credit losses. Whether event-driven or deeply fundamental and long-term, there are good catalysts to make this short work. 7) GSY appears to have stopped its vaunted buyback in mid-April, based on daily SEDI data. Maybe that’s just because they think the stock is too expensive...or maybe it’s because their debt level is overextended at the worst possible time, with the company staring down a “backlog” of unreported charge-offs? Whatever it is, pausing the buyback for 5+ months blows up the capital return narrative that certain investors own GSY for. 8) If you follow GSY, you know that the CFO just put in his (short) notice last week. You also know that the longtime CEO resigned from that role at the beginning of this year. Both of these gentlemen pursued unusual stock sales before doing so. This is probably what you’d do too, if your job were soon going to entail having to explain where all these "surprise" charge-offs were coming from. (Maybe this is why GSY hasn’t been able to identify even an interim CFO yet, let alone a permanent one.) Go ahead and ask the sell-side analysts about this one if you’re inclined, but be prepared to explain a lot to them if you do. 8 out of 9 covering analysts have a “Buy” rating on this sublime subprime lender, so they probably haven’t been exposed to a lot of debate about it before. We always leave some of the more interesting things for readers of the full report, so we encourage you to visit our website and download the full PDF of our short thesis, paying attention as well to our very important disclaimer. Comments and corrections welcome at our website or our email address.

@Twasluck1 Was about to bring in a carton of Marlboro from airport duty free, until I checked import duties for Oz and it’s $1.50 per ciggie 😭

Why is a deck ciggies $35 in NZ? They don't even sell singles 💀

@ronInBendigo @ProfSteveKeen @grok what is the motivation behind this agreement?

Who signed the agreement that Australia's 90-day oil reserves should be shifted to the USA? Angus Taylor. That's why we're running out now. minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/tayl…

@longriver_hk +1 on Ted Weschler

This is amazing access. Well done. You gotta get Prem Watsa $FFH and Ted Weschler $BRK on next 💪🏻💪🏻

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on IQE in UK? 🙏

High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T. $LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand. I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play. Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas. Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks. But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI. $LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B $AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR. $AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins). Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections. $FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI. ~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins) Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap. TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route. $AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two). $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.

@ContrarianCurse Even more alarmingly, analysts are forecasting sustained elevated earnings for at least 4 years in a row, which would be unprecedented for this industry...

For Hynix. Now. HISTORICALLY. This is absolutely no fucking way the time you'd wanna own this stock. Could be different this time! It could! I'm open to it

@LowAlphaHighVol Isn't their service sector labour cost arbitrage most vulnerable to AI displacement?

Indian equities are soooo out of favor, boy oh boy.

@ContrarianCurse Reading his memos feel like torture. He can pump out 8 pages of text, yet saying very little...

Fucking. Worthless.

@WaterworldCapi1 Sk Hynix can’t go up 5% everyday

@aleabitoreddit Congrats! Mostly top down based on supply chain tightness?

I happened to own every single top individual stock performer this year: From $AXTI and $AAOI in photonics. To $SNDK and SK Hynix in memory. To Nittobo, Macronix, and Unimicron for Asia Bottlenecks. All triple digit returns in 2 months. Year to Date: 501.38% Just lucky I guess?