jack troy

@formnoshape 我会在 WhatsApp 上实时分享我的2026年交易信号，免费加入✅ 链接在这里：api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=852…

【白银分析】唱多白银都是骗子？上半年“绞肉机”，下半年“印钞机”！ 这篇分析是个人关于2026年白银期货预测报告，以及个人操作计划，建议认真阅读。 一、基本面硬过黄金！ 1. 供给想增产都难 全球75%的白银是开采铜、锌时顺带出来的副产品，不是说银价涨了，就能马上多挖白银，得先扩建铜矿、锌矿，周期要5-10年。更糟的是，白银矿业股长期被大基金做空，矿企想融资扩产都难。2025年全球白银供需缺口已经到了3660吨，是连续第五年短缺，2026年缺口预计会扩到7000-8000吨。 2. 需求抢着要 2024年光伏行业用了2.9亿盎司白银，预计2030年要用到4.5亿盎司。而且光伏新技术用银量比老技术更高。AI算力耗电巨大，新增电力里太阳能占比越来越高，这又绕回白银需求上。更关键的是，白银导电性是金属里最好的，电子、医疗领域根本没替代品。 3. 政策火上浇油 中国是全球第二大白银生产国，也是加工巨头，2026年起把白银出口改成“一单一审”的许可证制度，和稀土一个级别。这会让全球每年少4500-5000吨白银供应，虽然占全球总需求的比例不算大，但现在库存已经见底，企业心态全变了，从随用随买变成提前囤货。 4. 纸白银游戏快崩了！ 白银大涨还有一个很重要原因是纸白银和实物白银彻底脱节。一般，商人会在低价市场买白银、运到高价市场卖，同时把价格拉平。但现在白银市场完全反常。上海实物白银报价77-91，纽约COMEX纸白银报价71-80，跨境运输成本才1-2，理论上，这中间6-20美元的价差就是白捡的利润，但根本没人能赚到。核心原因是没货可提，COME市面上流通的纸合约对应白银量，是交易所仓库里实际存货的300倍。平时只有1%-2%的人会真的提货，系统能撑住，但2025年12月前四天，就有60%的可交割白银被提走。 现在COMEX白银库存约1.4万吨，伦敦现货库存约2.7万吨，都比2022年峰值降了三分之一。但市场上看涨白银的纸合约还在越积越多，想要提货的企业排起长队，能交割的货却越来越少，就像大家同时去银行取钱，银行却没这么多现金——这就是“挤兑”，只不过挤兑的是白银。 COMEX的定价逻辑本来是“大部分人只炒纸合约，不会真提货”，但现在光伏厂、电子厂这些工业企业成了提货主力。伦敦市场的白银租借年化利率飙到35.87%，创了历史新高，意思就是空头想借实物白银去交割，成本高到离谱。这说明纸白银的价格已经脱离实物基本面，说了不算了。 历史早就证明，纸价和实物价背离的时候，最后一定是纸价往实物价靠，例如2022年LME镍逼空、2020年COMEX白银挤兑。 5.逼空行情。目前大机构、对冲基金现在净做空了2.75亿盎司白银，相当于全球年产量的10%。他们本来是赌白银跌，但现在实物短缺，想交割都没货，最后只能高价买回纸合约平仓，这种集中买盘会把银价推得更高，这就是逼空，空头越平仓，价格涨得越狠。 以前COMEX对付价格暴涨，就靠三板斧，提保证金、限持仓、改规则。但现在保证金比例已经是2011年后最高的了，再提高，死得最惨的不是炒短线的投机者，而是矿企、精炼厂这些需要对冲风险的实体企业。他们要是退出市场，纸白银的流动性会更差，价差反而更大。限持仓也管不住全球工厂，持仓限制只能管单个投机者，但现在要白银的是全球几千家光伏厂、电子厂，需求太分散，根本没法限。改规则也只能是饮鸩止渴，要是COMEX强制改成现金交割，不交付实物，短期能缓解压力，但长期就彻底完了，大家会抛弃COMEX，转而去伦敦、上海这些实物市场定价，COMEX纸白银就成了没意义的数字游戏。 还有人说“可以用铜替代白银”“回收白银补库存”，但这都是纸上谈兵，铜替代要改造工厂生产线，至少4年才能普及，现在的光伏板要2044年才能回收，电子产品里的白银含量太低，提取成本比买新银还贵。 二、技术面+总结 基本面总结：白银的供需错配，且短时无法扭转，叠加潜在的逼空行情，是白银2026年能继续走波澜壮阔大牛市的核心因素，无论短期政策如何改变 行情如何波动，白银的基本面就是这么硬，除非你能一夜之间变出几千吨的白银出来！那些喊见顶的KOL，要么是根本不懂，要么是不愿研究，让我们拭目以待吧！ 技术上，周线级别，silver期货目前处于明显的多头趋势，但最近出现加速行情，这里完全有可能出现调整，摩根大通等机构为了维持工业原料白银的价格，还会继续打压白银价格。但这些都不会改变白银长期向好的走势。 因此，今年上半年大概率是波动剧烈的阶段，4-6月前可能还会冲刺一波高点，然后迎来回调。但是到了下半年，白银大概率开启新一轮大涨！ 个人会继续囤货银条+定投etf（slvon, 一比一锚定实物白银），特别是在周线级别支撑区间（silver期货价格50-65），如图，加大囤货力度。 再啰嗦下，优先选择实物，实物是最稀罕的，然后是etf基金。合约只有跌到支撑区间再去做，严格止盈止损，不要幻想一夜暴富。 最后总结，上半年囤货，下半年起飞！ ⭐️⭐️以上均为个人观点和操作，不构成交易建议！

Allegheny County Airport Authority CEO Christina Cassotis talks about the first day of operations at Pittsburgh International Airport’s new terminal.

Carnegie Mellon is awaiting President @realDonaldTrump’s arrival here at the Pennsylvania Energy & Innovation Summit. The left entrance to Wiegand Gymnasium is already closed off, as that entrance is at capacity. Trump is set to speak in just over an hour @TribLIVE

LIVE. Protestors stopped by Pittsburgh police at the intersection of South Craig Street and Forbes Avenue. @TribLIVE

Fourth and final panel. Some heavy hitters — Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and others. Crowd really thinned after Shapiro left, though. @TribLIVE

LIVE: Speeches have begun at the protest in Schenley Plaza. @TribLIVE

“Hug a fracker the next time you see them. Without them, we would not be in the position we are today,” said Doug Burgum during the summit @TribLIVE @SecretaryBurgum

Protest against @realDonaldTrump starting at @Pittsburgh’s Schenley plaza … @TribLIVE

Here’s 1 of the only 2 @PghPolice cars keeping tabs on abt 100 protestors rallying against @realDonaldTrump starting @Pittsburgh ‘s Schenley plaza … @TribLIVE

LATEST: Penn State President Neeli Bendapudi takes the stage to moderate the third panel here at the summit — which includes PA @GovernorShapiro @TribLIVE

China wants the U.S to be caught up in "the environmental narrative" on energy, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claims. “We have Alaska, we have shale, we have oil, we have natural gas. We have the capacity to drive the AI revolution in America. China does not." @TribLIVE

“We’ve been telling kids for 15 years to code," Rowe said. "'Learn to code', we said. Well, AI is coming for the coders. They’re not coming for the welders.” Big applause line.

Rowe, by the way, is more than a TV personality: He has made a real name for himself advocating for the skilled trades and heads the mikeroweWORKS Foundation.

The second panel has started. A mix of business executives, politicians and… Mike Rowe of “Dirty Jobs” fame. @TribLIVE

Perry's lesson to governors: “Don’t over tax. Don’t over regulate. Don’t over litigate. And have a skilled workforce. Then get out the way. Governor Shapiro understands that." Shapiro will be on a bipartisan panel later today. @TribLIVE

Former Department of Energy Secretary Rick Perry and journalist Salena Zito are the bridge between the first two panels. This about the “war with the Communist Chinese,” Perry said of investing in AI. More war/battle/race talk. @TribLIVE

“There’s no better place … than Pennsylvania to lead the next revolution in energy, technology and artificial intelligence,” @SenMcCormickPA told the crowd here at the summit. Listen to some of his remarks below @TribLIVE

Big chunks of the summit's first panel are focused on global tech/AI competition. "If we look around the world in five years and American companies have 80% of the market share, that means we won," said David Sacks, the White House AI czar. @TribLIVE

Gray also teased a deal in Pa. involving natural gas plants. "What we're thinking about and what makes us so excited about the area is the idea you can co-locate the data centers right next to the source of power," he said. "And that's really the special sauce here."

“Great jobs for working families are not Republican or Democratic issues," McCormick told the crowd. $90+ billion in AI and energy investments will be announced today, along with tens of thousands of jobs. Moments later, he calls the summit Trump's "America First agenda at work."