Jason

@ocapitalglobal Most likely one of these teams will be in the final game. Lucky if both are from your list in the final game, otherwise if it's a big outsider making the finals vs one from your list easy to re hedge and lock in profits on the day. Though anything can happen 😄

coloquei 100 mil reais na Copa do Mundo no Polymarket. não é aposta... é uma operação de probabilidade. a lógica é simples: no Polymarket, cada share paga $1 se o resultado acontece. comprei 25.921 shares de cada uma das 9 favoritas (Espanha, França, Inglaterra, Argentina, Brasil, Portugal, Alemanha, Holanda, Bélgica). custo total do bundle: ~$0,80 por share. se qualquer uma das 9 vencer, recebo $25.921. investi ~$20.800. lucro de ~$5.100 (~R$25.500). ROI de ~25%. o que me deu confiança: nas últimas 18 Copas (era moderna), 88,9% dos campeões estão na minha lista. as únicas exceções foram a Itália em 1982 e 2006. a Itália não se classificou pra 2026. ou seja: tirando a Itália, são 16 de 16 Copas. 100%. o mercado precifica ~80% de chance dos favoritos. o histórico sugere ~89%. se o histórico estiver mais perto da realidade, estou comprando probabilidade com desconto. EV com 89%: +$2.251 por operação. EV com 80% (preço do mercado): praticamente zero. o edge inteiro depende dessa diferença de 9 pontos percentuais. os riscos são reais: - 48 times pela primeira vez (mais variância) - outsider vencer = perda total dos $20.800 - copa cancelada (guerra) = perda total acompanhei as odds antes de montar. o bundle começou a $0,759 e foi subindo, convergência clássica de mercados de previsão conforme o evento se aproxima. entrei a ~$0,80. cada dia que passa o ROI comprime. posição é real e pública no Polymarket. escrevi a análise completa no Capital Global, link no primeiro comentário

@arkham @BlackRock @GarrettBullish

BlackRock bought half a billion dollars of BTC.

@brewmarkets @PeterLBrandt

S&P 500: record high Nasdaq: record high

BREAKING: S&P500 has hit a new all time high.

@unusual_whales @PeterLBrandt

@SalsaTekila It will happen, Saylor will buy all the leftover Chinese Bitcoins, Larry happy Blackrock bitcoins will be safe, Pump to 88,888 to set the path to 888,888,

Unpopular opinion: This is going to happen and most holders silently want this to happen. Assuming it’s done with a fair grace period, it seems right. People talking about the ‘original ethos’ are talking out of their sidelined arses or virtue signaling.

@brewmarkets @PeterLBrandt

We survived the stock market crash of 2026.

Imagine paying money to view a tweet of a dude who just keeps shorting market. If you pay people like this dude you really need to reevaluate your life

@JohnLoc18 Invest the remaining in the sp500 index fund and take a break

Your loss is way more than me I hope you find peace.

@saylor @LaDoger @GarrettBullish

Millions of possibilities. One solution. $BTC

@SalsaTekila Clear 88,888 for 888,888 blow off

BTC bottomed in early February. There will be dips, but the trajectory is up. We will never see $50K BTC again.

@SalsaTekila 888,888

@GarrettBullish I hope you listened

trump is taking hormuz. not by opening it. by shutting it down himself. smartest move of the war. the first real signal that the US is done playing reactive and ready to dictate terms. but will it work? new piece on why the blockade changes the narrative, not the outcome. garrettsignal.com/p/the-smartest…

$BIRD is selling its brand and footwear assets renaming itself NewBird AI and using a new $50M convertible facility to pivot into AI compute infrastructure by buying GPUs. Going from selling wool sneakers to chasing AI compute might be one of the wildest pivots this cycle.

@Cryptanadian @RunnerXBT @saylor From what I found, "the dividends may be treated as return of capital, which is not taxed in the year received (it instead reduces your cost basis in the stock)"

@jamesaz2015 @RunnerXBT @saylor What do you mean return of capital?

for every $1b of BTC purchased via STRC from @saylor he owes $115,000,000 in dividend payment, per year

@GarrettBullish Therefore the skillful leader subdues the enemy's troops without any fighting; he captures their cities without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom without lengthy operations in the field. Sun Tzu, Art of War

@GarrettBullish "The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” - Sun Tzu

@GarrettBullish Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting. Sun Tzu

@KobeissiLetter @GarrettBullish

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases all losses and turns green on the day as the US begins its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.