@olensrud Thanks for sharing Ole! Great summary of the CSU results with some very insightful details.
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Jan Klein Poelhuis
2.9K posts
Jan Klein Poelhuis
@janklp
CIO at FortyTwo Capital | Marathon Runner | Cyclist
Utrecht Katılım Temmuz 2009
145 Takip Edilen507 Takipçiler
Great summary of $CSU Q4 from Leandro
Leandro@Invesquotes
Just published this on Constellation Software $CSU.TO Good quarter with several interesting tidbits! Find it in the usual place (free to read) 👇
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We've published an open letter to the board of $ADYEN.
We believe a share buyback programme represents the most compelling use of Adyen's capital today — and explain why it would create significant value for long-term shareholders.
fortytwocapital.com/open-letters/l…
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Jan Klein Poelhuis retweetledi
Whether the next president is a Republican or a Democrat, can we have someone with at least a little class next time? Because this is embarrassing.
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@ReneSellmann Though that is true, there is significant survivorship bias in this graph.
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Terry Smith is catching heat for recent underperformance.
But this Fundsmith chart is a reminder:
Great businesses can justify absurd entry multiples if you hold long enough.
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At last, the 2025 annual letter of FortyTwo Capital has been published. It took a bit longer this year. We hope you find something of value in it and would love to hear any feedback on it.
fortytwocapital.com/annual-letters…
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Hi Brown, I just dont like the fee structure, as it just limits your upside. Same with $BN subsidiaries, I rather just own the top holdco versus the fee paying subs.
Similarly, I'd rather just own $FFH.TO, which also includes Go Digit and other Indian assets as well, than $FIH.TO. Due to the fact your upside is capped because of the performance fee, I'd say a higher discount is warranted for FIH.
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People cannot handle the fact that a discussion has been closed to the point they need to drag other people back in it by retweeting with bull.
Brown@BrownMarubozu
People have very strong feelings about the fee structure at $FIH.U to the point they will ignore expected returns and therefore valuation to not pay them.
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@NewcomerInvest @betakm2 That in itself would be a warning sign to me. For every company in my portfolio I could think of multiple (albeit unlikely) scenarios in which the company could do badly in the next five years.
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Brookfield Asset Management [ $BAM ] has one of the best business models in the world and now trades at a discount
Dividend compounding at 15%+ annually & overall business anticipated to double within 5 years
Buyers with a long term mindset will be rewarded
I am long $BAM
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@DutchInvestors @MichaelGielkens Management raising a orange flag for me as investor. Either you don’t know history or their sense of humor is quite off.
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"We're nazis when it comes to cash flow" Tasmea
$TEA.AX
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Nogal wiedes met die oorlog en die olieprijs, zegt u?
In verleden dook #Shell daar ook nog wel eens op omlaag...
Shell op all time high, dat verdient (vrij toegankelijk) blogje
Waarom het zo'n mooi aandeel is (en peers op #BP na nog beter doen)
stockwatch.nl/shell-op-all-t…
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@janklp @cfrischer1 @IveyContrarian @VikingVan100 Fairfax has businesses which they may never sell too but to me it’s about the flexibility. We see it not just on investment side but also in balance sheet management. They also fund startups which CSU is doing apparently but we won’t see that from BRK and MKL.
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@cfrischer1 , you were all over Poseidon being a great example of one source of the significant amount of 'hidden value' that is residing at Fairfax. Your thesis got confirmed today. The best part? There are many more examples. And Fairfax surfaces hidden value. $FFH.TO $FRFHF
Charles Frischer@cfrischer1
$FFH.TO $FRFHF I have provided additional thoughts in the attachment. I am so impressed that Fairfax continues to under promise and over deliver to their investors. No bragging about the value of Poseidon. Just the facts and now a fantastic transaction.
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@ArendJanKamp @rvsanten Het wordt pas echt lastig als het bedrijf qua operationele resultaten lastig te voorspellen is. Koersen kun je op korte termijn nooit met enige mate van betrouwbaarheid voorspellen 😬
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Zandhaas #Rheinmetall graaft -6,1% schuttersputje op cijfers
Het is mss niet zo'n moeilijk aandeel om te volgen, maar advies en koersdoel geven is lastig met zeer wispelturige en volatiele koers
@rvsanten waagt zich er toch aan stockwatch.nl/rheinmetall-al…
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@BrownMarubozu @cfrischer1 @IveyContrarian @VikingVan100 Yes, fair. But there are other holdings that buy wholly owned businesses, without ever selling them, that achieve similar returns as Fairfax. Think of CSU or Berkshire. I know, different companies in a different stage. Just saying that one is not necessarily better than the other
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@janklp @cfrischer1 @IveyContrarian @VikingVan100 I guess it depends what Rome means to you. $MKL is trying to do 10% and $FFH.TO is trying to do 15%. CAGR over a decades, it really adds up.
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$FFH.TO is selling a little over half of its stake in Poseidon for a 82%+ premium to its mark at year end. A pre-tax gain of ~$800m is expected in Q2. $200+ in EPS for 2026 seems extremely likely now vs very likely before.
Brown@BrownMarubozu
Also, fully marked to market, both Eurobank and Poseidon would be at ~10x earnings. Arguably fair value is much higher. $FFH.TO is a rare investment with margin of safety, leverage and diversified optionality. Like $BRK it has BTD built in. Forward returns go up with the VIX.
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@BrownMarubozu @cfrischer1 @IveyContrarian @VikingVan100 There are multiple ways to get to Rome. Both models could work very well when executed properly I’d argue.
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@cfrischer1 @IveyContrarian @VikingVan100 It’s the opposite view of $MKL and is a key part of why $FFH.TO book value will grow faster besides the inherent leverage. I asked Tom Gaynor if he would sell something in Ventures if they got a great price and I didn’t like the answer.
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@NS_online if you would be a public stock, I would be happy to make an exception from my strategy, and go short. Damn, only a semi government institution can come away with this dismal service to its clients.
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@Greenbackd I bookmarket this tweet. Aged pretty well already @Greenbackd
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Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today.
In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when oil went negative.
In this regime, winners are survivors, defined by:
* Low maintenance capex
* High FCF conversion
* Balance-sheet optionality
* Willingness to shrink (or not grow)
Historically, extreme lows in oil/gold ratio:
→ Lead to multi-year outperformance of energy and cyclicals
→ Especially when inflation re-accelerates
Every time the ratio has been this depressed:
* Energy equities massively outperformed over next 3–5 years
* Value beat growth
We are near those historical zones. The ROC panel suggests we are reaching exhaustion levels in downside momentum.
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Jan Klein Poelhuis retweetledi
@MichaelGielkens @castrobeiras Agree to some extent. Fairfax is quite a difficult company to comprehend from an accounting standpoint. There is some disdain from Fairfax shareholders to people who aren't willing to do that work. The opposite is also true, Fairfax is often considered to be too complex etc.
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Total Shareholder Return 2000-2025 of the portfolio by stock
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Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK $BRK.A $BRK.B) published its annual report last Saturday. Buffett's extraordinary tenure now has come to an end and I'm excited to see how Berkshire will fair under Greg Abel's leadership. Attached some thoughts around the 2025 results and the valuation.
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