Noah Henderson@NoahImgLikeness
Why are payrolls in college basketball exploding? The answer is not simply "rich boosters."
Over the past month, I spoke with coaches, general managers, and agents across the country about how this year's transfer portal actually unfolded.
I came away convinced that the biggest driver of today's market isn't irrational decision-making. It's an incentive structure where nearly everyone is rewarded for winning today's negotiation, while almost no one is rewarded for protecting the institution's long-term interests.
The transfer portal is built on panic and the result is a predictable cycle: reservation prices drift, BATNAs deteriorate, negotiating leverage disappears, and today's overpayment becomes tomorrow's market rate. Yet a handful of programs appear to be approaching negotiation with far greater discipline than everyone else.
My latest piece for @CollegeFrontO explores why payrolls keep rising, how behavioral economics helps explain the market, and why disciplined negotiation is a competitive advantage in roster construction. Link in comments.